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Shokomon

Watching the Market

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5 hours ago, missy_ said:

What do we do to get them more plentiful in the Cave; breed all of ours every week? Does that help the ratios? I literally know nothing about ratios.
 

If they show up in the AP more often, will that theoretically cause the Market price to fall?

No, ratios is a balancing act. Something like that only works with commons because people don't breed enough commons, and it still wouldn't *decrease* a price, only increase it.

 

These are already rare and popular, so breeding more just makes them rarer and more expensive. Which is probably why they keep going up, actually; everyone is *still* trying to breed staterae for keep or trades. There's not really anything anyone can do.

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Posted (edited)

2 minutes ago, Shadowdrake said:

No, ratios is a balancing act. Something like that only works with commons because people don't breed enough commons, and it still wouldn't *decrease* a price, only increase it.

 

These are already rare and popular, so breeding more just makes them rarer and more expensive. Which is probably why they keep going up, actually; everyone is *still* trying to breed staterae for keep or trades. There's not really anything anyone can do.

Unless we all (and I mean all of us, everyone in the entire Dragon Cave community) just agree to stop breeding them for like a month or two.

 

No Staterae. No Xenos. No breeding or catching them.

 

NADA.

 

That may make them drop (in price and in the cave)...

 

Maybe. 

Edited by Shokomon
making my unintentional pun more clear and less of a pun

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14 minutes ago, Shadowdrake said:

No, ratios is a balancing act. Something like that only works with commons because people don't breed enough commons, and it still wouldn't *decrease* a price, only increase it.

 

These are already rare and popular, so breeding more just makes them rarer and more expensive. Which is probably why they keep going up, actually; everyone is *still* trying to breed staterae for keep or trades. There's not really anything anyone can do.


I am so confused by this, but I need an “explain like I’m five” version of ratios :lol: and even that may not be simplistic enough for my math-challenged brain. XD

 

My logic (obviously flawed) would be, if we had a whole ton of something, it would be common, not rare. My brain thinks (again, must not work, but my brain ...) If the AP was filled with Stats instead of, say, Guardians (insert more common breed of your choice here), it seems like they would be common? I think of supply and demand, and how if you have a whole bunch of something, no one wants it. So I obviously don’t understand ratios, since I gather that example wouldn’t apply here. :iraptor:

 

12 minutes ago, Shokomon said:

Unless we all (and I mean all of us, everyone in the entire Dragon Cave community) just agree to stop breeding them for like a month or two.

 

No Staterae. No Xenos. No breeding or catching them.

 

NADA.

 

That may make them drop (in price and in the cave)...

 

Maybe. 


*watches this comment whiz over my head* :lol:

 

 Wowzers, I truly don’t understand ratios.  :shades: (See above for reasons my brain doesn’t understand ratios) It seems like if you have none of something, it would make it more rare, and if you had a lot of something, it would make it more common. (Not saying this is how ratios work; just saying this is my brain trying to process the concept.)
 

If this is the case (everyone withholding breeding for a month or two), even though I do not understand it, it would be fascinating if everyone (or as many people as possible) could stop breeding Stats and Xenos for awhile. (And I thought I was making them less rare by breeding ...) :ph34r:

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@missy_ Ratios is the game's way of balancing out player demand. It's basically a quota of how many dragons the cave wants to make, with different quotas for different rarities. In a sense... the game is trying to fill a bucket for each species, but it needs the player's help to get water from the faucet (the cave/bred eggs) to the bucket (total adult species population). If the bucket is big or empty (commons), the cave will turn on the faucet as high as it can go, and that species will be everywhere the game can put them. If the bucket is too small or already full (rare or popular breeds) and players are filling up the bucket too fast, the cave will close the faucet most of the way to prevent people from overflowing it.

 

Your logic works if it only depended on what the players generate, but since the cave also has a say, the cave says, "No, this is a rare, it can't be common," and refuses to let you breed enough stats for them to get common.

 

I don't know if this makes any sense or is too confusing.

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So to put it simply lets say that for a stat to drop in the cave, players need to pick up 400 stone dragons. so 1/400. Ratios are basically imo like fractions/percentages. 

 

so only 1% of eggs for the year can be stats. The 99% has to be a mix of commons.  Now because stats are rare people keep catching and breeding them. So the market which is based on the ratios will try to keep the stats rare by raising the price so that less people can buy them thus keeping the amount of stats in the game low.

 

Now bred ratios and cave ratios have been divorced from each other. So breeding and catching doesnt really influence each other. Which is why massbreeding all the commons in the game wouldn't do anything to make stats drop more in the cave. 

 

However it would influence the market price to be lower afaik.

 

Not catching any stats for a few months but catching all the commons would make the stats show up more often in the cave. Again because of the ratios. Players pick up 1200 stones so now 3 stats pop up. Ignore those 3 stats and keep picking up stones and the cave will pop up stats more and more often to balance out the ratios. 

 

 

Hope this helps. 

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10 minutes ago, missy_ said:


I am so confused by this, but I need an “explain like I’m five” version of ratios :lol: and even that may not be simplistic enough for my math-challenged brain. XD

 

My logic (obviously flawed) would be, if we had a whole ton of something, it would be common, not rare. My brain thinks (again, must not work, but my brain ...) If the AP was filled with Stats instead of, say, Guardians (insert more common breed of your choice here), it seems like they would be common? I think of supply and demand, and how if you have a whole bunch of something, no one wants it. So I obviously don’t understand ratios, since I gather that example wouldn’t apply here. :iraptor:

 


*watches this comment whiz over my head* :lol:

 

 Wowzers, I truly don’t understand ratios.  :shades: (See above for reasons my brain doesn’t understand ratios) It seems like if you have none of something, it would make it more rare, and if you had a lot of something, it would make it more common. (Not saying this is how ratios work; just saying this is my brain trying to process the concept.)
 

If this is the case (everyone withholding breeding for a month or two), even though I do not understand it, it would be fascinating if everyone (or as many people as possible) could stop breeding Stats and Xenos for awhile. (And I thought I was making them less rare by breeding ...) :ph34r:

 

You mention supply and demand so think of like this.

 

You live in an area surround by apple orchards. All year, you have apples. Apple for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Even in the winter, because you have so many that you just store and freeze the excess. 

 

You would say in that area, apples would be really, really cheap, because you can get them easily. Supply completely outstrips demand. You would never buy an apple at say something ridiculous like $10 a fruit (a single apple), because you could literally walk over to you neighbor's house and be like,

 

"Hey, Jerry? Can I have some granny smith apples? I just have galas growing."

 

And Jerry will be like

 

"Sure fam. I still have some from last year!"

 

Apples are cheap here, because they are common. In this area, they grow easy, and are available all the time. No one would fight you to hold on to their apples unless they really, really like them, and even then, a person can only have so many, so even if they really, really, REALLY, liked apples, they couldn't buy ALL of them.


They are that common.

 

You can find them elsewhere easily. 

 

---

 

Now say you live in, idk, Antarctica. You are on an expedition for years. Any food you have is probably canned and processed for longevity. And if you get anything fresh, it's probably fishing (and illegal hunting of wildlife, lol.)

 

And then, the restocking ship comes, and what do they have? Fresh Apples.

 

Needless to say, you and the crew are so desperate for anything different that there is a frenzy around the fruit.


People buying fruit at like $100 a fruit (a single fruit; like one apple). People are hoarding them and are completely unwilling to give them away, unless you've got something really, really good.

 

"Hey Jim. I will trade you the very last Hershey's chocolate bar in the ENTIRE Base for the bag of Honey Crisp apples. I know you've been dying for one, since the last shipment on Valentine's." 

 

"...WhERE'D YOU EVEN FIND THAT????!" 

 

"I raided the boss' office. She's got a stash of chocolate, and I know where it is. And if you give me the Honey Crisp apples and one of your pack of jolly ranchers I know you've been hiding, I'll get you one of the snickers too."

 

"...Get me 2 snickers, and you have a deal." 

 

So, in this situation, demand far outstrips supply. Apples are expensive, because they are rare. Apples are extremely hard to get in this area (since they are shipped from overseas at very distinct and limited times). They are hard to produce (because it's too cold and maintaining a greenhouse dedicated to apple production would too many resources better dedicated elsewhere in this resource limited area). And, anyone who has apples would be extremely reluctant to give them away, even if they didn't like them.

 

Why? 


Because they are rare. 

 

And rare means valuable

 

So if someone doesn't like apples, but really like chocolate (something equally sought after and rare, if only because it gets eaten so fast), they will hold on to the apples, so they can trade them for chocolate. 

 

--

 

Now how does this work with ratios?

 

Basically, if something is common and is always common, it's cheap.

 

Making more of something that is already common, would make them cheaper, because nobody wants them.

 

Dragons that breed frequently and have large populations normally don't get bred as often because it's so easy to get them in-cave or on a first try of a breeding pair.

 

So breeding more wouldn't help. There are already too many. 

 

But since now we are talking about populations, there is a point where if you breed, and breed, and breed a common dragon, the Cave will start producing less of said common dragon because there are too many. 

 

The environment has tapped out. It can't sustain more of that breed of dragon. So eventually, that common dragon stops producing more babies, and other breeds (that have been crowded out by this super common dragon) start producing more to compensate.


That's one reason why people massbreed. They are trying to hit that population cap. 

--

 

However, if something is rare and is always rare, it's going to be expensive.

 

The population cap for said dragon is much, much lower. They reproduce very infrequently, and as a result, they are hard to find and hard to breed. They hit their cap, much, MUCH sooner.

 

And people will always want them, because they are so hard to get in the first place. That's why during dragon releases, people scramble to grab the eggs. Because if this dragon is rare, it will reach it's normal populations levels very quickly, the flood will end sooner, and it will be so much harder to find. 

 

People want rare things, because rare = valuable. And, even they don't want the dragon, they can trade if for something they do want, like say a Neglected. 

 

So people keep breeding and catching this rare dragon to get more rare dragon.

 

Which keeps the numbers of the dragons at their max. 

 

Which means they make even less babies.

 

Which means they get even more rare.

 

Which means they get even more expensive. 

 

So, the best way to get more of rare dragon is to stop breeding or catching it. 

 

Because then, the population has a chance to move down away form the cap, which means that there is now room for more dragon. So, the Cave will start making more dragons.

 

And the price drops because the seller thinks.


"Hmm. No one is buying the dragon. How do I make them buy my stock? If I don't sell them, the eggs will die, and all that effort to get them will be wasted, and I want money.

 

Better make them cheaper, because cheaper means more people can afford them now." 

 

And that's why I suggested stop breed dragon.

 

---------------------

TL;DR

 

Common things are cheap because there is too much of it, so it's easy to get and not worth that much.


Rare things are expensive, because there is too little of it, so it's hard to get, and rare = valuable, which means it can be used to get other valuable things, or a lot of invaluable things. 

 

Common dragons are cheap, because there are so many of them. It's easy to get more of them, because the population for them is always high. Breeding more of them doesn't help, unless you are trying to get them to stop making more babies by filling the environment with so much dragon that the environment just says "NO," and stops making dragons.  

 

Rare dragons are expensive, because there are so few of them. Getting them is hard, and breeding them is hard, because the population for them is always low. Breeding more of them doesn't help, because that keeps the population at their max, making the environment say "NO," and you get even less dragon. That makes them more rare, and thus, more expensive.

 

The way to get more rare dragons is to not breed them for a while, so their population drops, and the environment says "Okay, make more babies now." 

 

But, getting everyone to stop is hard, because people always want rare dragons because they are rare, and rare = valuable.

 

 

---

I'm done now. 

 

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Golds, Silvers, Magmas, Thunders, Chickens and some of the Dinos went down a bit with them looks like. Hoping for some stalling prices next week!

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Magnesiums and Sawtooths have hit the market at 100 shards!

 

And also the encyclopedia!

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Posted (edited)

On 4/25/2021 at 1:00 PM, missy_ said:


I am so confused by this, but I need an “explain like I’m five” version of ratios :lol: and even that may not be simplistic enough for my math-challenged brain. XD

 

My logic (obviously flawed) would be, if we had a whole ton of something, it would be common, not rare. My brain thinks (again, must not work, but my brain ...) If the AP was filled with Stats instead of, say, Guardians (insert more common breed of your choice here), it seems like they would be common? I think of supply and demand, and how if you have a whole bunch of something, no one wants it. So I obviously don’t understand ratios, since I gather that example wouldn’t apply here. :iraptor:

 


*watches this comment whiz over my head* :lol:

 

 Wowzers, I truly don’t understand ratios.  :shades: (See above for reasons my brain doesn’t understand ratios) It seems like if you have none of something, it would make it more rare, and if you had a lot of something, it would make it more common. (Not saying this is how ratios work; just saying this is my brain trying to process the concept.)
 

If this is the case (everyone withholding breeding for a month or two), even though I do not understand it, it would be fascinating if everyone (or as many people as possible) could stop breeding Stats and Xenos for awhile. (And I thought I was making them less rare by breeding ...) :ph34r:

 

 

You've got the idea, you're just looking at it backwards!  The key is that players don't determine rarity: the game does.  Being "common" or "rare" is part of a breed's game mechanics, like what it can breed with (Stripes can't breed with Splits).  DC doesn't check whether there are Stripes and Splits on the same scroll to decide if they can breed together; what they can breed with is coded into them.  In the same way, DC doesn't count up how many Purples are on the site and decide that they're common because there are lots of them; it has a piece of code that says Purples are common, and it makes them easily breedable because the code says they're common compared to other breeds.  The number of dragons of one breed compared to all the other breeds is a ratio, which is usually stated as "X:X".  For example, a 1:100 ratio means that for every 1 of the first thing in the Cave, there are 100 other things. 

 

To pick two random examples, let's say the game mechanics are set up so that Golds are "rare" and Neotropicals are "common," and the number (ratio) of Gold dragons compared to all other breeds is about 1 Gold dragon for every 100 other dragons.  Meanwhile, the ratio of Neotropical dragons compared to all the other breeds is 50 Neotropical dragons for every 100 other dragons. 

 

Since these ratios are set by the site, no matter how much you breed Golds and Neotropicals, you're still going to get very few Gold eggs compared to Neotropical eggs.  So you could breed 100 Gold pairs and 100 Neotropical pairs, but you're still going to get something like 5 Gold eggs and 95 Neotropical eggs.  The ratio is being maintained: the site is set up so that there will always be more Neotropical dragons than Gold dragons. 

 

Let's say you team up with 100 people and you all breed 100 Gold pairs.  Each of you gets 5 Gold eggs, so there are now 500 Gold eggs in the AP.   Now the ratio of Gold dragons to other dragons is skewed - it's no longer 1:100, because there was a big jump in the number of Gold eggs all at once.  

 

The site is going to "work" toward restoring the 1:100 ratio for Gold dragons, because the ratio is built into the site.  If you've got 500 Gold eggs in the AP and the site's code says that for every 1 Gold there should be 100 non-Gold dragons, the site is going to 'subtract' 500 Golds from other places - breeding, biomes, market - until there are 5,000 other eggs to balance them out.   Gold dragons will breed fewer eggs (because the site can't make people breed non-Golds to rebalance the ratio, but it can reduce bred Golds).  Fewer Gold eggs will drop in the biomes (because it can't make players pick up other eggs, but it can reduce Gold eggs).  Gold prices may rise in the Market (because the site can't make people buy non-Golds but it can make it harder to buy Golds).  

 

This is what people mean by "the ratios," and why overbreeding a rare dragon will make it harder to breed/catch/buy that dragon. 

Edited by sorenna

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It's Monday, so time for a market update!

 

And with all those sprite changes, I'm going to add them to the list as "Dragons of Interest."

 

Current Prices of Rare Dragons and Dragons of Interest:

Spoiler

Aeon Wyvern
1,700

 

Blusang Lindwyrm
1,200

 

Cheese Dragon
2,400

 

Ciriax Lindwyrm
700

 

Copper Dragons
1,500

 

Electric Dragon
100

 

Gilded Bloodscale Dragon
1,000

 

Gold Dragon
1,900

 

Golden Wyvern
1,700

 

Ice Dragon
3,500

 

Magma Dragon
4,700

 

Mistlet Pygmy
200

 

Moonglow Drake (Sunbeam Drake during Day)
100

 

Nexus Dragon
1,600

 

Paper Dragon
2,600

 

Seawyrm Pygmy
200

 

Serrati Wyvern
100

 

Silver Dragon
1,600

 

Thunder Dragon
3,400

 

Tideweaver Lindwyrm
100

 

Xenowyrm (Staterae)
3,100

Xenowyrms (2015)
500

Xenowyrms (2020)
100

 

Diplodocus carnegii
2,200

 

Gallus gallus domesticus
3,700

 

Parasaurolophus cyrtocristatus
1,700

 

Pterodactylus maximus
2,200

 

Stegosaurus stenops
2,300

 

Triceratops horridus
2,200

Bolded = the most expensive item; Underlined = True Rares; Italicized = Interesting or Unsual Pricing; Green = Price Down from last post; Red = Price Up from last post

  • Looks like prices have trended down since the release hike.
    • Except the Staterae, which stagnated. Well...at least, it hasn't gotten higher?
    • Though I remember hearing it had dropped lower than the current prices...  
  • The replacements pretty much have expected prices.
  • Magmas remain most expensive item for another week.
  • The actual rare prices are declining again. 
  • Nexuses are still too expensive. They really shouldn't be the same price as Silvers..

And that's it for now!

...

I'm really tired...

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Why on earth are Magma dragons so expensive? Also, red dragons seem to have had a shortage and therefore a price increase. Can someone explain these market changes to a bronze trophier?

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21 hours ago, Gavvv24 said:

Why on earth are Magma dragons so expensive? Also, red dragons seem to have had a shortage and therefore a price increase. Can someone explain these market changes to a bronze trophier?

 

Short answer: No, we can't.

 

None of us users know exactly how Market pricing works or why certain breeds have such strange prices, all we can really do is guess. As far as Reds, I've never actually paid attention to their price so I don't know what it's been lately but it's currently at 600 and according to the older records linked in the OP it used to be 700 for awhile so 600 doesn't seem too much of a stretch. As for why Reds are so much more expensive than other useful-BSAs like Magis and Pinks.... No clue. 

 

Magmas are a continued mystery. Personally I think the Trios high prices in general have to do with their ability to Summon, so they are 'special' and therefore expensive, but Magmas being 1k+ more expensive than the other two is very strange indeed and we really don't know why. 

Edited by HeatherMarie

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On 5/11/2021 at 6:02 PM, HeatherMarie said:

As for why Reds are so much more expensive than other useful-BSAs like Magis and Pinks.... No clue.

Probably due to the fact that out of every BSA, you will use Incubate the most often, simply because its the most useful. Got an egg at 4d 1 hour you wanna hatch? Incubate it. Wanna have a chance of saving a nd egg? Incubate it. Because of this, people are constantly trying to get more, driving the price up higher. Influence is good, but only when you really need it, and Teleport is useful for trading and gifting eggs, but not much more(other than being an integral part of saving Incubated nd eggs). The more you try to get more a dragon breed, the higher it will go(like Magma's, which are so overbred for Trios that they are THE most expensive thing on Market).

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On 5/10/2021 at 9:55 PM, Gavvv24 said:

Why on earth are Magma dragons so expensive?

Your guess is as good as mine, because no one really knows why.

 

My best is a combination of the general rareness of Trios, their ability to Summon GoNs, and some lore bit that we were missing.

 

Like maybe their nests are literally in lava, and that makes getting them extremely hazardous.

 

And, for the most part, dangerous jobs pay better and thus, are more costly (albeit not always.) 
 

On 5/10/2021 at 9:55 PM, Gavvv24 said:

Also, red dragons seem to have had a shortage and therefore a price increase. Can someone explain these market changes to a bronze trophier?

 

14 hours ago, TsunamiFlame said:

Probably due to the fact that out of every BSA, you will use Incubate the most often, simply because its the most useful. Got an egg at 4d 1 hour you wanna hatch? Incubate it. Wanna have a chance of saving a nd egg? Incubate it. Because of this, people are constantly trying to get more, driving the price up higher. Influence is good, but only when you really need it, and Teleport is useful for trading and gifting eggs, but not much more(other than being an integral part of saving Incubated nd eggs). The more you try to get more a dragon breed, the higher it will go(like Magma's, which are so overbred for Trios that they are THE most expensive thing on Market).

That, and now there's the fact that Incubate can be used to get certain variants of dragons (Siyats, Xols, and the Cantomaris, if I remember correctly.) 

 

Now, there is the competing interests of using incubate to hatch eggs quicker and using incubate to get certain dragons. 

 

The other BSA dragon of understandably high value are Aeons with the BSA, Precognition, which tells you what gender your dragons will be. That's extremely valuable. 

 

With enough Aeons, if you are looking for a certain gender, you can find out which eggs to use the Pink BSA (Influence) on, figure out which eggs to dump to open up eggs slots sooner [if you lack any (free) Pinks], which eggs you should incubate if you are looking to get a certain gender faster, and even get a certain breed of dragon (blue Cantomaris, which made them even more valuable.) They essentially save a lot of time and effort otherwise used on the, at least, 3 day period to hatch an egg and then 1-3 day period to find out their gender.

 

I hope this is helpful!

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