Coronavirus Discussion

[olympe]

6 hours ago, Ruby Eyes said:

I think the number that is always missing is the one for cases with issues lasting longer than a month (number of long haulers.) I wonder if that would get people thinking about this disease as being something other than a temporary inconvenience ...

Look at the numbers from India. The only explanation for their daily new cases compared to their active cases is that they simply declare every case older than 12 days "recovered". They've had a steady rise of around 60 k cases per day. Yet, their overall cases are at less than 720 k... There simply is no other explanation as their death rate isn't high enough to explain this.

[Lagie]

5 hours ago, AngelsSin said:

@Lagie

Not just that but the U.S. has a lot of people who need care and by coming here he could be taking a spot that could be used for an American Citizen who needs it.

Very good point. His daughter is a physician over there but that's no excuse.

[AngelsSin]

Also think of all the people he could exposed traveling here. Is he taking a private plane? If not, is he warning those he is flying with? Will they have to clean the plane? Etc...

[Ruby Eyes]

13 hours ago, Lagie said:

Well, people here keep asking why the recovery numbers never change

At least some people are noticing! Even though they probably draw the wrong conclusions (number faking or somesuch)

[Astreya]

Here's an interesting article about the long-term effects: https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/covid-19-many-people-stay-sick-after-recovering-from-coronavirus-a-d814c20b-fb3d-47b1-bd2b-d6fd65e0ef33

 

In Leipzig, there is a new interesting study about how the virus actually works in an event location. A well-known German singer held three concerts with 1500 people in the audience under scientific monitoring. The audience was screened beforehand that they had a recent negative Covid-19 test, no fever and no symptoms like sore throat and coughing, so that the experiment could be conducted fairly safely.  They were given a tracer so that one could follow all of their movements, a face mask for additional safety, plus a bottle with a disinfectant which was laced with a fluorescent colour and told to disinfect their hands frequently, so that one could afterwards check which locations were touched most frequently by the people.

 

The three concerts were conducted first without any restrictions, one with one place kept free between the audience and one with full 1.50m safety distance everywhere. Additionally, the potential aerosol spreading was modelled. There will be proper results of the study in 4-6 weeks, which will be very interesting, I'd say.

 

---------------------------------------

As of today, Monday, August 24, 09:00 GMT+2,  my home town (population 211 000) has 27 (+-0) active cases, while 430 (+-0) people have recovered. All in all there have been 469 (+-0) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 6.2.

 

Currently 3 (+-0) persons are treated in hospital, none of them in intensive care. 12 persons sadly died. 216 (+-0) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 21 131 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

[Lagie]

6 minutes ago, Astreya said:

Here's an interesting article about the long-term effects: https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/covid-19-many-people-stay-sick-after-recovering-from-coronavirus-a-d814c20b-fb3d-47b1-bd2b-d6fd65e0ef33

Funny you should post that now. I just saw this in a friend's Facebook feed this morning - 

(Hidden due to length)

Spoiler

Why is a virus with a 99% recovery rate shutting down an entire country? There are two problems with this question:

1. It neglects the Law of Large Numbers; (google it if you're not familiar with it) and
2. It assumes that one of two things happen; you contract the virus and you die, or you contract the virus and you make a complete recovery.

The latter is proving to be true in LESS than 20% of all cases, meaning 80% of people who make a “complete recovery” from the virus will experience moderate to severe after effects for the rest of their lives.

The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 dead. Three million people dead in a short span of time will impact the US economy no matter what. But the second bit is that people keep talking about the deaths. Deaths deaths deaths. Only one percent! That’s nothing! Such a small number! But what about the people that survive, the other 99%.

For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization and are left with average medical bills of $300,000.
18 people will have permanent heart damage requiring medication and a sedentary lifestyle for the rest of their lives.
10 people will have permanent lung damage and suffer breathing trouble and require routine oxygen treatments, nebulizers and steroid injections for the rest of their lives.
3 people will suffer strokes and could potentially lose all or partial mobility.
2 will have neurological damage and loss of cognitive function.

So now, that “only 1%” becomes:

3,282,000 dead
62,358,000 hospitalized
59,076,000 with permanent heart damage
32,820,000 with permanent lung damage
9,846,000 will suffer strokes and potential loss of mobility
6,564,000 will suffer muscle weakness extreme fatigue
6,654,000 will suffer loss of cognitive function

This is what the folks who keep going on about the “only 1% dead” are failing to see. Why is a virus with a 99% recovery rate shutting down an entire country?

Because there's a whole lot of harm between health and death.
Copied from St. Jude Children's

 

 

We did not get an update yet for yesterday. That's worrying.

Everyone is expecting another full lockdown when the PM speaks this evening.

I'll have to try to get to a food store today.

[Ruby Eyes]

Does not look that long.

But those are the really scary numbers, holy moly ...

 

[Astreya]

@Lagie

The post you copied is very descriptive. I hope more people would understand it.

 

And it seems our numbers have not really moved between Sunday and Monday either, which of course could be due to the fact that people and labs etc here don't work too much on Sundays if they don't absolutely have to.

 

By the way, this 15min report on phoenix tv yesterday was very enlightening, too:

https://www.phoenix.de/sendungen/ereignisse/corona-nachgehakt/wie-laeuft-die-medizinische-versorgung-bei-einer-zweiten-welle-a-1746635.html

(Language German, probably German proxy needed)

 

From the above report:

Professor Christian Karagiannidis conducted a German-wide study about the results of the treatment and course of the illness of more than 10 000 patients who were treated in 920 hospitals in Germany.

 

A fifth (22%) of the patients who were admitted to hospitals died. Male patients had to be put on respirators twice as often as female patients. And they died more often than women, too (25%). 19% of the women in hospitals died of the disease. The mortality was higher in older people (38% of the over 80 years old and 27% of the 70-79 year old patients in the hospitals died.

 

If the patients needed artificial respiration, the mortality was about 53% of the patients. But even when a respirator (and thus intensive care) wasn't necessary, 16% of the patients died. Particularly worrisome was the fact that many patients suffered from kidney failure and needed kidney replacement therapy (dialysis).

 

Original text (in German):

Spoiler

 

Dazu erläutert Professor Christian Karagiannidis, Sprecher der Deutschen Interdisziplinären Vereinigung für Intensiv- und Notfallmedizin, im Gespräch mit Michael Krons eine Studie, die erstmals bundesweite und bevölkerungsrepräsentative Ergebnisse zur Behandlung und zum Krankheitsverlauf von Covid-19-Patienten abbildet.

 

In der Studie wurden Daten von über 10.000 Patienten aus 920 deutschen Krankenhäusern ausgewertet. Es handelt sich hierbei um die abgeschlossenen Krankenhausfälle. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass etwa ein Fünftel (22 Prozent) der stationär behandelten Covid-19-Patienten verstarben. Die Studie legte Auswirkungen in Bezug auf die Geschlechter und Altersgruppen der Patienten offen: Es ließ sich erkennen, dass Männer mit Covid-19 fast doppelt so häufig beatmet werden mussten wie Frauen. Sie starben außerdem häufiger an der Erkrankung (25 Prozent). Bei den Frauen erlagen 19 Prozent der Krankheit. Generell war die Sterblichkeitsrate bei älteren Menschen höher: 38 Prozent der über 80-Jährigen, und 27 Prozent der 70 bis 79-Jährigen verstarben nach einer Covid-19-Erkrankung.

 

Wenn Covid-19 die Atmung der Pateinten beeinträchtigt kann eine künstliche Beatmung notwendig werden. Das Einsetzen der Beatmungsgeräte wirkt sich auch auf den Verlauf der Erkrankung und den Zeitraum der Genesung aus. Kennzeichnend für die Studie war, dass in Deutschland, wo die Krankenhauskapazitäten nicht ausgelastet waren, die Sterblichkeitsrate bei Patienten, für die eine künstliche Beatmung eingesetzt werden musste, besonders hoch war (53 Prozent). Besonders häufig starben dabei die über 80-Jährigen. Doch auch bei Erkrankten ohne Beatmung kam es zu Todesfällen. Diese belaufen sich auf 16 Prozent.

 

Wirkliche Alternativen zur künstlichen Beatmung gibt es laut Prof. Christian Karagiannidis zwar nicht, doch habe man mit Medikamenten wie Remdesivir oder Cortison teilweise den Krankheitsverlauf der Patienten beeinflussen könne. So habe Remdesivir bei früher Verwendung einen Effekt erzielt und Cortison gegen die Sterblichkeit bei beatmungspflichtigen Patienten geholfen, so Karaginnidis. Ein weiterer Punkt sei das Nierenversagen, welches ein häufiges Merkmal im Krankheitsverlauf war. Dem müsse man mit frühzeitigem Behandeln entgegenwirken. Generell sei für eine "zweite Welle" wichtig, besonders ältere Menschen zu schützen, sagte der Oberarzt.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Astreya

[Ruby Eyes]

47 minutes ago, Astreya said:

And they died more often than women, too

My brain just went "But how can you die more than once?"

Clearly, I should have lunch earlier ...

[Astreya]

@Ruby Eyes

LOL :D

 

In the TV report they said that women seem to be able to better cope with viruses in general, and they assume it might be related to the female hormones, particularly as the death gap gets smaller the older the patients are.

[purplehaze]

On Saturday Trump accuses "deep state" FDA of delaying therapeutics and vaccines until after November 3rd to hurt his chances of reelection. No evidence, just Trump hype.

On Sunday the FDA gives "emergency" approval for anti-body rich plasma, which has not been thoroughly studied, as a promising treatment option for Covid-19.

Coincidence? Not likely!

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/23/fda-under-pressure-from-trump-expected-to-authorize-blood-plasma-as-covid-19-treatment/

Quote

 

The Food and Drug Administration announced Sunday that it has authorized the use of blood plasma from patients who have recovered from Covid-19 as a treatment for the disease.

The decision to issue an emergency use authorization, which President Trump’s press secretary heralded ahead of time as a “major therapeutic breakthrough,” likely falls far short of that description — and could generate intense controversy inside the administration and the broader scientific community.

So-called convalescent plasma is among a host of potential therapeutics that have been undergoing testing in clinical trials. The hope is that infusions of antibody-rich plasma from those who have recovered from Covid-19 can be injected into ill patients, kickstarting their immune system and allowing them to fight off the virus until they can generate their own antibodies.
(...)
The announcement comes less than a week after officials at the National Institutes of Health staged a rare intervention to stop the FDA from issuing the emergency use authorization. NIH officials involved in the decision told the New York Times that more data, derived from randomized controlled trials, were needed. 

The announcement also follows sustained pressure from the president on his own administration. Trump told reporters last week that U.S. officials were slow-walking clearance of blood plasma until after the November election. He also took to Twitter on Saturday to criticize the FDA for making it difficult to test vaccines and therapeutics, though he didn’t specifically mention plasma...

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by purplehaze

[trystan]

this was in Huffington Post on friday:

 

 

Quote

 

... many months and over 5 million cases (and counting) later, the medical community is still learning about the virus ― including the fact that many patients are still experiencing symptoms for up to five months after they’re considered recovered.

 

These patients are known as “long-haulers,” a nonmedical term used to refer to those living with lingering COVID-19 symptoms.

 

According to Janice Johnston, medical director of Redirect Health in Scottsdale, Arizona, “the bulk of patients that contract COVID-19 recover completely within one to two weeks, but those with more serious symptoms can take up to three to four weeks to fully recover.”

 

As for long-haulers, she said “it’s not really clear just yet who is most at risk of having these lingering symptoms, but it does seem to impact those considered to be high-risk and those with more severe symptoms.”

 

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/long-term-effects-covid-19_l_5f3bf79bc5b6f9e1e10a8f0f

[Kith]

My mother-in-law was in the later stages of Alzheimer's and contracted covid-19 last week. She died early yesterday morning, five days after she tested positive, but apparently if the hospice puts that the covid-19 infection killed her, the death certificate will be rejected. Apparently it's only "allowed" to be an underlying cause of death.

 

So the truth will get rejected and only a false document will be accepted.

 

I'm not sure I can describe how I'm feeling right now.

[trystan]

oh that's frustrating, and not right {{hugs}} to you and your family, @Kith

[Astreya]

@Kith

I'm sorry to hear that.

 

Do you happen to have some media outlet in your vicinity that might be interested in reporting what's going on in that hospice? Or maybe write the stuff to one of the big newspapers in hopes to get them reporting on such practices.

 

The Guardian could be a good address: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/23/tell-us-have-you-been-affected-by-the-coronavirus

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Astreya

[Kith]

It's not the hospice itself, it's the state, I'm afraid.

 

My father-in-law has already forwarded the information to a local media outlet, but since that was today, there's no telling when they'll report on it.

[Astreya]

@Kith

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you that you'll manage to get these unbelievable practices out for everybody to hear/read!

[Lagie]

Aww that's unbelievable , @Kith. So sorry for your loss. Do keep trying to get the word out about the real cause of death.

 

We had actual good news in the press conference today. They've taken a second look at the data, changing the numbers from 'total on the day reported' to 'total on the day the test was done' and most of our islands appear to have crested the curve! So no further lickdowns for now, so long as the numbers stay as they are or go down. This week is essentials only (gas, food, water); next week businesses can reopen with curbside and delivery (restaurants, retail). And when you exercise between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. you will finally be able to do so on the beaches starting next Monday.

 

On the negative side, investigative followups into several deaths have been completed, and our death count has jumped seriously from 29 to 46.

 

Now to figure out how to do curbside from a thrift shop.

[Astreya]

It appears as if the case number in Oberhausen is getting lower, but unfortunately this is an illusion. We may have fewer active cases, but unfortunately the calculation shows that 14 more persons are considered "recovered" (again with the caveat that no one knows how many long-term effects they still might be suffering from), so this means there are actually 12 more fresh infections. And the jump in the number of tests appears a bit weird to me. I bet there is a typo, but we'll probably see in the next updates.

 

---------------------

As of today, Tuesday, August 25, 09:00 GMT+2,  my home town (population 211 000) has 25 (-2) active cases, while 444 (+14) people have recovered. All in all there have been 481 (+12) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 9.5.

 

Currently 4 (+1) persons are treated in hospital, none of them in intensive care. 12 persons sadly died. 206 (-10) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 24 286 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

[Ruby Eyes]

10 hours ago, Lagie said:

lickdowns

Is that save? Do they have 6-foot long tongues?

 

[olympe]

 

1 hour ago, Ruby Eyes said:

 

11 hours ago, Lagie said:

lickdowns

 

Is that save? Do they have 6-foot long tongues?

Nah, it's meant to provide herd immunity in no time. 😛

[Astreya]

Two students - one in a Gymnasium (high school/college) and one in a Berufskolleg (a school accompanying an apprenticeship) - have tested positive for Covid-19 in Oberhausen. The schools will stay open nonetheless as all students wore face masks and kept the hygienic measures, so it is not expected there will be more infections due to the positive tested persons.

 

---------------------

As of today, Wednesday, August 26, 09:00 GMT+2,  my home town (population 211 000) has 26 (+1) active cases, while 445 (+1) people have recovered. All in all there have been 483 (+2) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 7.6.

 

Currently 4 (+-0) persons are treated in hospital, none of them in intensive care. 12 persons sadly died. 231 (+25) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 24 523 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by Astreya

[Iside]

29 minutes ago, Astreya said:

Two students - one in a Gymnasium (high school) and one in a Berufskolleg (a school accompanying an apprenticeship) - have tested positive for Covid-19 in Oberhausen. The schools will stay open nonetheless as all students wore face masks and kept the hygienic measures, so it is not expected there will be more infections due to the positive tested persons.

 

Do students wear face masks in all schools?

In Italy scholl will start again on Sept 14th, with distances and face masks, and a lot of people are protesting that students will not be able and will be traumatized to have to wear masks all the time

[Astreya]

@Iside

Germany consists of 16 "Länder", and each of them has different rules and regulations concerning the safety measures in schools. My state NRW set up mandatory wearing of face masks for a students even during the lessons. It appears this is prudent. Some other states demand neither face masks or distancing for the students.

 

 

[Confused Cat]

In Switzerland (population 8.6 million) 383 new cases have been reported in 24 hours. That's the highest daily number since April.

 

In my canton (population 280'000) there are currently 30 people infected.

My brain goes "hey, this means it's not really a big risk to meet with people, because there's only a 0.01 percent chance someone is infected" - except that's not true because obviously those 30 people are just the ones that have been diagnosed. (Of course if they really were the only ones carrying the virus, the risk would actually be zero percent because they're in isolation!)

 

But honestly I have no idea how to judge where on the scale from "no big deal" to "terrible" the situation is.

I'll just keep avoiding people as much as possible. I already did that before Corona anyway, it's just a little tragicomical that I had actually planned to change it this year.