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TJ09

2021-02-17 - Abandoned Page Updates

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I do pick up and abandon eggs until I find something I want. I might find something in the first try, rarely 20 or 30 tries. Blacktips, I'll probably refresh until a different breed shows up. It usually never takes more than 5-10 minutes for some different breeds to show up. Somehow, I seem to miss the kind of walls that go on for hours, even if I am in the AP a half dozen times or more a day. 

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1 hour ago, TJ09 said:

 Preventing the entire AP from being the same breed was never the goal. It was never even stated anywhere as being a possible goal.

 

But cherry-picked screenshots aside, I've been following the AP for hours now and for the majority of the time I have indeed seen 6 or more different breeds visible.

 

 

Actually, that is the goal of your fan base, and we've stated it about a million times, and it's absolutely our goal.

 

I don't understand your goal at all, what you are writing about spreading influence makes no sense to me.  Can you explain more clearly, please?

 

It doesn't seem like you listen to us at all.  Can you please explain how you believe that you are addressing our concerns?

 

Yeah, watching it for hours on one day is pretty much the definition of cherry picking.  Why don't you watch it for a month.  We'd be glad to send you a pm when an actual wall starts.  We have had one-breeder walls last for 2 days in the past, and we're sick of it.

Edited by random_dragon_collector

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20 minutes ago, random_dragon_collector said:

Actually, that is the goal of your fan base, and we've stated it about a million times, and it's absolutely our goal.

 

I absolutely have to say that I agree.  This change is just a big disappointment for so many of us. 

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I'd be happy if TJ would just come and clearly explain what his goal is.  I would like to hear what he thinks we want.  What does he think our goal is?  I would like to know if he thinks he's addressed our concerns, or if he thinks are our goals are unimportant.  The original post made it sound like he thought he was addressing our concerns.  But how he's doing that is very unclear.

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41 minutes ago, random_dragon_collector said:

I'd be happy if TJ would just come and clearly explain what his goal is.  I would like to hear what he thinks we want.  What does he think our goal is?  I would like to know if he thinks he's addressed our concerns, or if he thinks are our goals are unimportant.  The original post made it sound like he thought he was addressing our concerns.  But how he's doing that is very unclear.

 

Honestly, yes. It is *very* unclear at this point what exactly TJ thinks is going to be helped with this, or what he was intended to help, if the goal wasn't to fix the issue of one-breed or one-breeder walls. *That* was what many vocal users have been asking for, for a long time. Based on TJ's posts, I feel like he misunderstood what exactly the issue was. 

 

Quote

Based on the data I have, there's no need to focus on the "original" source of the eggs (cave, breeder, whatever); when I talked about how "a few people are able to disproportionately affect how others play" I was specifically looking at eggs abandoned by people, and there's not much evidence to suggest eggs from a single breeder are being spread around before being abandoned.

 

Based on this quote, it feels like TJ is looking at this as a few people *abandoning* a ton of eggs in a short amount of time being the issue. But that's never been what people were talking about. The issue is and has always been a small handful of mass-*breeders* clogging the AP with tons of their breedings at once (often all one or two breeds). The issue has been, for example, thousands of Blacktips walling up the AP for over 24 hours at a time. From one breeder. Dozens of people can pick up and re-abandon those wall eggs and they are still a wall. It has nothing to do with mass-abandoning, and focusing the change on abandoners does absolutely nothing to help the walls most people have been complaining about. 

 

(Now, I've been vocally against drastic anti-wall changes because most of them target breeders negatively, but a change to the AP itself has always been much preferred. It's disappointing and frustrating to get excited about such a change and then realize it's actually not addressing the issue users have complained about at all.)

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17 minutes ago, HeatherMarie said:

Based on this quote, it feels like TJ is looking at this as a few people *abandoning* a ton of eggs in a short amount of time being the issue. But that's never been what people were talking about. The issue is and has always been a small handful of mass-*breeders* clogging the AP with tons of their breedings at once (often all one or two breeds). The issue has been, for example, thousands of Blacktips walling up the AP for over 24 hours at a time. From one breeder. Dozens of people can pick up and re-abandon those wall eggs and they are still a wall. It has nothing to do with mass-abandoning, and focusing the change on abandoners does absolutely nothing to help the walls most people have been complaining about. 

 

 Thank you, HeatherMarie.  You explained it well and clearly and I completely agree with you. 

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The funny thing is, the only way to abandon that many eggs is to breed them.  Please come and tell us what you were thinking TJ, I'm just dying of curiosity.

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7 hours ago, Tinibree said:

We also know the price of blacktip eggs from market has gone up, which is directly tied to rarity+ratios. (which I still find amazing) We also know ratios are affected in the short term by how other massbreeds work. If you breed a couple hundred leodons x rares, by the end of it they start spitting rares. The ratios say 'thats a lot of leodons, how about something else' which, would technically raise the rares ratios, but not enough to matter imo. 

Its also fair to say that celestials ratio may have gotten worse, but that doesn't mean the blacktip ratio didn't also get better at the same time. Especially given Amahira has done more PB blacktips than multiclutches the last year, which means it would only affect Blacktip ratios.

 

I don't think you understand what I was trying to say. I'm not saying the ratios haven't changed over the years because it seems only consistent that they have in some form. What I'm saying is you can't look at data, raw numbers, and come to any sort of conclusion that X or Y is what made the difference. There just isn't a good method of testing that sort of thing on DC, not when unaccounted variables like time, additional breeds, mechanics, other breeders, etc. exist. If you breed 500 Leodons and start seeing more rares being bred towards the end, that can be entirely coincidental and not related to ratios changing. There is a heavy bias towards the whole line of thinking, "I haven't been getting X dragons from my breedings, but after Y massbreed I saw more X's. They're related". It's a problem humans have when looking at any sort of data; we like to see parallels and relationships when they may not exist.

 

Do mass breedings do something to the ratios? Again they probably do, just because it seems only logical. Are they the reason prices went up? Debatable, the prices may have gone up regardless but there's no way to test that on DC. Are massbreedings why I got 10 gold eggs from my breedings when a month ago I got 3? Highly debatable since that may be the random nature of... well, random! Collecting raw data can be interesting and fun to look at in a casual way, but in this case it shouldn't be used as conclusive evidence for any argument.

 

This is starting to go off on a tangent, but raw number data and casual inference can have some merit in certain appropriate circumstances. Many years ago vampires were bugged and had a near 100% kill rate on their bites. I remember people were testing hundreds if not thousands of individual cases for months and it was all almost 100% kill rate. I think the vampire topic in Site Discussion might still have those posts. There were some excuses thrown around that nothing was wrong with vampires (until it was stealth fixed one day lool), but this situation was novel in that the vampire bites had little variance. They either died or didn't, breed didn't matter, mate didn't matter, vamps don't give a "no interest" or "no egg", vamps don't occur naturally, so it's easier to measure success. This is one of those cases where observational inference can be pretty accurate with enough data, because alternatives and variance is low. It's not entirely conclusive, but the shift was so dramatic that it can be good enough to assume. Breeding/ratios are unfortunately more complicated and likely never going to be as simple to come to any conclusion about.

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Aww I liked the walls. :( If it'll make the majority happy though, then that's good.

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6 hours ago, TJ09 said:

[...]The entire point is to spread out the ability to influence the AP amongst multiple people, not prevent "walls" in all their various forms. In a hypothetical extreme where 30 people all decide to breed the same breed at the same time and fill the AP, then that's fine.

 

But how does it spread the influence if it's the exact same eggs showing up in all the slots, because people pick them up and drop them? I do a lot of ap hunting, often checking codes, and so many eggs get picked up at least once only to be reabandoned. Which makes sense, that's how the ap works, we check if we like it and if not we toss it back. Right now there are 30 people in the ap; if there was a wall of 300 eggs abandoned by one person, the limitation would only work until people started picking them up, and then it would immediately be spread across those 30 people but for the exact same eggs. If each person checks 10 eggs (I have often checked dozens at a time), suddenly all of them are displayed. How does that change anything? 

 

It has already been demonstrated that even with very short walls by one individual at a time the 6th row gets blocked. While I agree that people shouldn't be limited from massbreeding to their heart's content (I've done it too) it is not only the extreme cases you mentioned that will make the ap all one breed, but a single breeder as well. If you don't think this is an issue, then I am very curious as to what issue this change was meant to address. 

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I read through the whole thread and went through a whole rollercoaster of emotion beginning at the five stages of grief, followed by grim acceptance, blossoming optimism, and eventually just landing on utter confusion when TJ stated the change wasn't going to impact walls... at... all?

Am I missing something? If the per-abandoner change wasn't intended to break up long walls originating from one breeder, then what is it fixing? Is it stopping me, me who abandoned 30 eggs I grabbed from the wall, from having a mini-wall of the exact same eggs that the other 50 people in the AP already threw back in? Did I miss some hidden AP mechanic here? I'm just completely baffled what the change is impacting, other than smashing the planned ND experiment that was supposed to begin.

 

(Also, if someone could clarify for me: how can abandoners influence the AP at all, other than through mass-breedings [which this change does not alter]? How are a "few" people influencing the AP in a way that does NOT involve mass breeding...?)

Edited by steeve

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6 hours ago, TJ09 said:

Preventing the entire AP from being the same breed was never the goal. It was never even stated anywhere as being a possible goal. But cherry-picked screenshots aside, I've been following the AP for hours now and for the majority of the time I have indeed seen 6 or more different breeds visible. That suggests that the 24 limit (that I've already said is likely to be lowered) is doing exactly what it intended.

 

I'm going to keep playing with the numbers (and I'll post wherever that lands), but I don't think the base approach needs to change. The entire point is to spread out the ability to influence the AP amongst multiple people, not prevent "walls" in all their various forms. In a hypothetical extreme where 30 people all decide to breed the same breed at the same time and fill the AP, then that's fine.

 

 

5 hours ago, random_dragon_collector said:

Actually, that is the goal of your fan base, and we've stated it about a million times, and it's absolutely our goal.

 

I don't understand your goal at all, what you are writing about spreading influence makes no sense to me.  Can you explain more clearly, please?

 

It doesn't seem like you listen to us at all.  Can you please explain how you believe that you are addressing our concerns?

 

Yeah, watching it for hours on one day is pretty much the definition of cherry picking.  Why don't you watch it for a month.  We'd be glad to send you a pm when an actual wall starts.  We have had one-breeder walls last for 2 days in the past, and we're sick of it.

5 hours ago, random_dragon_collector said:

I'd be happy if TJ would just come and clearly explain what his goal is.  I would like to hear what he thinks we want.  What does he think our goal is?  I would like to know if he thinks he's addressed our concerns, or if he thinks are our goals are unimportant.  The original post made it sound like he thought he was addressing our concerns.  But how he's doing that is very unclear.

 

He has said that the idea is to stop one breeder walls. When we have a base of players here who deliberately organise single breed events, I don't think there is a way to stop walls of a single breed - and while I don't take part on those because I don't like single breed walls myself, are you saying such events should end ? OK a neglected wall would have made several people happy - but in essence, if it's OK to arrange that, why not a wall of neotrops or whatever ?

 

4 hours ago, HeatherMarie said:

Honestly, yes. It is *very* unclear at this point what exactly TJ thinks is going to be helped with this, or what he was intended to help, if the goal wasn't to fix the issue of one-breed or one-breeder walls. *That* was what many vocal users have been asking for, for a long time. Based on TJ's posts, I feel like he misunderstood what exactly the issue was. 

He has also said that the numbers will probably be tweaked. I think the issue of people reabandoning mass bred eggs seems to be worse than one might have thought so I'm sure he will be watching that. Something like this needs testing for a while after introducing it before trying to fine tune it, I think.

 

4 hours ago, HeatherMarie said:

Based on this quote, it feels like TJ is looking at this as a few people *abandoning* a ton of eggs in a short amount of time being the issue. But that's never been what people were talking about. The issue is and has always been a small handful of mass-*breeders* clogging the AP with tons of their breedings at once (often all one or two breeds). The issue has been, for example, thousands of Blacktips walling up the AP for over 24 hours at a time. From one breeder. Dozens of people can pick up and re-abandon those wall eggs and they are still a wall. It has nothing to do with mass-abandoning, and focusing the change on abandoners does absolutely nothing to help the walls most people have been complaining about. 

 

(Now, I've been vocally against drastic anti-wall changes because most of them target breeders negatively, but a change to the AP itself has always been much preferred. It's disappointing and frustrating to get excited about such a change and then realize it's actually not addressing the issue users have complained about at all.)

 I think he does know it's primarily about single breeders, but how do you discriminate between that and multi-breeder walls without annoying the people who organise mass breeding ? Re-abandoning seems to be the problem at the moment... But we know he's watching.

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43 minutes ago, MissK. said:

But how does it spread the influence if it's the exact same eggs showing up in all the slots, because people pick them up and drop them? I do a lot of ap hunting, often checking codes, and so many eggs get picked up at least once only to be reabandoned. Which makes sense, that's how the ap works, we check if we like it and if not we toss it back. Right now there are 30 people in the ap; if there was a wall of 300 eggs abandoned by one person, the limitation would only work until people started picking them up, and then it would immediately be spread across those 30 people but for the exact same eggs. If each person checks 10 eggs (I have often checked dozens at a time), suddenly all of them are displayed. How does that change anything? 

 

It has already been demonstrated that even with very short walls by one individual at a time the 6th row gets blocked. While I agree that people shouldn't be limited from massbreeding to their heart's content (I've done it too) it is not only the extreme cases you mentioned that will make the ap all one breed, but a single breeder as well. If you don't think this is an issue, then I am very curious as to what issue this change was meant to address. 

 

This is interesting because we have the same observations and are coming to different conclusions. Let's run through a version of your example:

 

400 eggs abandoned by one person at the same time, all of them hit the AP at the same time. For the sake of this example, let's say the per-person limit is specifically half of the AP, 15 eggs. There are 30 people viewing the AP.

 

1. To start, only 15/400 show up at the same time.

2. 30 curious people each try to grab one of those initial eggs at the same time; 15 succeed and immediately abandon their eggs.

3. Oh no, all 30 eggs are now from that 400! (15 from the original breeder, and 15 re-abandoned eggs)

4. The remaining 15 people that didn't grab an egg now get to grab one.

5. For each of those eggs, there's a 50% chance that it's one of the re-abandoned eggs, revealing a completely different egg behind it. Thus, the length of time that the AP is "filled" is significantly reduced. I specifically observed this happening today; times the AP was all one breed were short and quickly gave way to other, different eggs.

 

This scales for any numbers you want to throw into there (I picked 15 because it makes a nice even 50%) except when you stretch it all the way up to "all 400 eggs get grabbed and re-abandoned immediately"—but that's the case I'm saying doesn't actually happen in practice. A lot of people have pointed out that they will grab and re-abandon eggs, but it doesn't affect most eggs, and when a large number of eggs are abandoned by one person, they largely stay "abandoned by one person" for the bulk of their time in the AP.

 

5 hours ago, HeatherMarie said:

Based on this quote, it feels like TJ is looking at this as a few people *abandoning* a ton of eggs in a short amount of time being the issue. But that's never been what people were talking about. The issue is and has always been a small handful of mass-*breeders* clogging the AP with tons of their breedings at once (often all one or two breeds).

 

You're nitpicking terminology into meaning something that it doesn't. When I talk about abandoning, I don't care how the egg got abandoned, just that it is abandoned and that it was abandoned as a direct result of something done by someone.

 

If you breed 100 pairs of dragons and 100 eggs go to the AP, then you abandoned 100 eggs. If someone picks up 5 of those eggs and re-abandons them, they abandoned 5 eggs. That's how the site has always worked; once someone grabs an egg, it's theirs. The previous owners of that egg have no bearing on what happens to that egg anymore, regardless of whether they bred it. If the new owner of an chooses to abandon an egg, then they have chosen to abandon their egg.

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But the parents of ALL those eggs are still all on the same scroll. As such, it is still ONE breeder having added eggs to the AP that apparently aren't of much interest to anyone else.

 

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15 minutes ago, TJ09 said:

This is interesting because we have the same observations and are coming to different conclusions. Let's run through a version of your example:

 

400 eggs abandoned by one person at the same time, all of them hit the AP at the same time. For the sake of this example, let's say the per-person limit is specifically half of the AP, 15 eggs. There are 30 people viewing the AP.

 

1. To start, only 15/400 show up at the same time.

2. 30 curious people each try to grab one of those initial eggs at the same time; 15 succeed and immediately abandon their eggs.

3. Oh no, all 30 eggs are now from that 400! (15 from the original breeder, and 15 re-abandoned eggs)

4. The remaining 15 people that didn't grab an egg now get to grab one.

5. For each of those eggs, there's a 50% chance that it's one of the re-abandoned eggs, revealing a completely different egg behind it. Thus, the length of time that the AP is "filled" is significantly reduced. I specifically observed this happening today; times the AP was all one breed were short and quickly gave way to other, different eggs.

 

This scales for any numbers you want to throw into there (I picked 15 because it makes a nice even 50%) except when you stretch it all the way up to "all 400 eggs get grabbed and re-abandoned immediately"—but that's the case I'm saying doesn't actually happen in practice. A lot of people have pointed out that they will grab and re-abandon eggs, but it doesn't affect most eggs, and when a large number of eggs are abandoned by one person, they largely stay "abandoned by one person" for the bulk of their time in the AP.

 

I see what you mean. I suppose we will have to see in practice then, to me it seems like the result will depend on how much this happens and how many eggs each person checks. Theoretically it is entirely possible that I pick up and reabandon 24 eggs myself, immediately affecting the ap a lot, especially if I keep doing it.

 

Regardless, I am at least glad about the update regarding Holidays.

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5 minutes ago, Ruby Eyes said:

But the parents of ALL those eggs are still all on the same scroll. As such, it is still ONE breeder having added eggs to the AP that apparently aren't of much interest to anyone else.

 

This is the big issue, TJ.

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7 minutes ago, TJ09 said:

 

5. For each of those eggs, there's a 50% chance that it's one of the re-abandoned eggs, revealing a completely different egg behind it. Thus, the length of time that the AP is "filled" is significantly reduced. I specifically observed this happening today; times the AP was all one breed were short and quickly gave way to other, different eggs.

 

Thank you, this is something I had not considered. Of course you can access more information than we can, so maybe we're really overestimating the number of eggs being picked up and re-abandoned.

 

 

However, with a really big massbreed (like 2000 eggs from one person) wouldn't inevitably at some point be significantly more than 15 that have been re-abandoned? (Uh, I hope that was a readable English sentence.)

And then only re-abandoned ones would appear in the "not-same-abandoner" half of the AP before any "completely different" ones do, because their time would be lower.

 

Anyway, I guess it's complicated, and there are lots of additional parameters that influence what happens on the AP. We'll see.

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So if I'm understanding this correctly, TJ is saying that the change he implemented makes the AP cycle faster through a wall of eggs that were bred by the same person? If that's how it works, that does sound like a decent addition.

I think people (including me) were just confused initially about what this update was meant to do. Maybe a clearer statement of intention at the start would've helped? I think we were imagining that the limit would be on how many eggs bred by the same person we can see at a given time, since, if you go to the AP in the middle of a wall, you as a new arrival don't care how many eggs have been picked up and instantly tossed back, because it all looks exactly the same to you and the eggs are identical. Instead, people care that any one breeder can have so much influence over what's visible at one time.

But if this change will cycle through walls faster, then I think that's good! People will certainly care if the walls disappear faster! It's just disappointing or confusing at first for those banking on something like the above, where only 24 or 12 of those exact eggs can ever be seen at once.

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8 hours ago, TJ09 said:

Preventing the entire AP from being the same breed was never the goal. It was never even stated anywhere as being a possible goal. But cherry-picked screenshots aside, I've been following the AP for hours now and for the majority of the time I have indeed seen 6 or more different breeds visible. That suggests that the 24 limit (that I've already said is likely to be lowered) is doing exactly what it intended.

 

I'm going to keep playing with the numbers (and I'll post wherever that lands), but I don't think the base approach needs to change. The entire point is to spread out the ability to influence the AP amongst multiple people, not prevent "walls" in all their various forms. In a hypothetical extreme where 30 people all decide to breed the same breed at the same time and fill the AP, then that's fine.


What the even. REPORTING the issue is not “cherry picking” screenshots what the even absolute. People were excited for this change because the AP would have the likelihood of not just being one breed for hours on end. I think the idea the player base has been asking for since I left literal years ago is a good balance between letting people manipulate the ratios or show their love for their army. 
 

I came back to collect dragons because I love dragons. The Frilled Dragons returning was a big reason to make me come back after I just randomly checked up on DC. I was upset enough about the incident I pretty much left shortly after. I don’t like the tone in this post and it feels like snark to try and hand wave what people are trying to tell you. I literally took the screenshots I’ve posted on this forum at pure random. Like as in I took a break from college and decide to puddle around on DC for a minute. Or I’m winding up for my day, might as well check the AP for a minute. It is upsetting that you would call this “cherry picking” when I’m trying to help call attention to the problem that wasn’t addressed. I think I’m remembering other reasons why I stopped collecting dragons on this site. Just wow. 
 

People are happy that you can collect other eggs in holiday times. Good change. Great. I love it. I love having options and I’m sure the people who already have all the holiday dragons they could ever want are ecstatic too! Full thumbs up. 
 

But people are upset that this wasn’t warned about and it was implemented right as the mass AP ND experiment would be going into action. Bad. Very bad. This was a big thing on the forum with multiple prominent users advertising this in their signature for weeks! If you posted a “hey guys I’m changing the AP and I plan for it to come into effect at the end of the holiday event so don’t count too much on low-time eggs doing weird stuff” that would have been fine. Some people would have probably been mad but you wouldn’t have just let the plan enact, then just kill it right before it could show results. Gameplay changes should ideally be given warning so the players can be forewarned of how their plans might change. 
 

People thought the change would reduce the amount of single breed eggs in the AP so that they can also AP stalk without worry. Turns out people playing the AP as they have for years will just contribute to the lock. Which begs the question why would the change even happen? This is not good. This is what people are trying to explain is not working about this update. 

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Thanks for posting again, TJ.  I still don't really understand how it will work.  But I'm willing to wait for the next blacktip wall and see how it works.  Dropping the number to 12 should help, no matter what, I think.  It still seems like all that has to happen is the first twelve blacktips gets looked at, then 12 more join them, again and again and again.  But oh well, this won't make anything worse.  So, we'll see.  I've also decided that that no matter what anybody who runs a website like this does, some players will see what they do to exploit it, so I might as well shrug and avoid the AP on wall days.

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1 hour ago, random_dragon_collector said:

I've also decided that that no matter what anybody who runs a website like this does, some players will see what they do to exploit it, so I might as well shrug and avoid the AP on wall days.

I would hardly call this "exploiting". It took a lot of effort and time to make walls before the update, and it's going to take even more now, which should offset the amount of walls we see. We'll just have to see what the long-term results of the change are, both in terms of frequency/duration of walls and the (currently atrocious) AP times, before making a real judgement, I think.

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4 hours ago, Silverwatermist said:

So if I'm understanding this correctly, TJ is saying that the change he implemented makes the AP cycle faster through a wall of eggs that were bred by the same person? If that's how it works, that does sound like a decent addition.

 

Time is relative. I suppose a 12 hour wall is better than two days, but if 12 hour walls are a continuous issue it will still have a detrimental effect on those of us who enjoy AP hunting.

And if the AP is still full of eggs from one breeder you still have a SINGLE player 'influencing' the AP and what other people are able to do, regardless of who last abandoned what. I fail to see how that changes in any meaningful way.  

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12 minutes ago, Tawanda001 said:

Time is relative. I suppose a 12 hour wall is better than two days, but if 12 hour walls are a continuous issue it will still have a detrimental effect on those of us who enjoy AP hunting.

And if the AP is still full of eggs from one breeder you still have a SINGLE player 'influencing' the AP and what other people are able to do, regardless of who last abandoned what. I fail to see how that changes in any meaningful way.  


I agree with pretty much all of this (I hunt the AP too) and find the issue of one player's bred eggs all clogging the AP to be the actual problem that I thought this was meant to tackle. But if the current change helps the walls that do show up to move faster, I'll take it if TJ is against making other types of changes.

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