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TJ09

2021-02-17 - Abandoned Page Updates

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26 minutes ago, purplehaze said:

 

Maybe TJ has studied the makeup of the walls more than I would be able to and knows this will work, but I am less hopeful now that this is a solution.

 

 

I begin to think that our original suggestion of a mere 6 per breeder might have worked better....

 

And of course those organised mass breedings will completely clog it. Brutes are coming up - ugh.

Edited by Fuzzbucket

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10 hours ago, Firefury Amahira said:

Hi, let me show you some statistics that show it does help ratios:

Blacktip "mega" massbreeds since 2018. Note that the volume of blacktips has hit a plateau and actually begun to decline, versus the volume of celestials that has made a statistically significant increase. For added tasty statistics, here's the raw breeding data that the graph was created from. Of particular note are the annual totals. In 2019 there were 6488 attempts made, producing 7828 blacktips. In 2020 there were 8540 attempts made, producing 6899 blacktips. Despite 2020 having roughly 2,000 more breeding attempts than 2019 did, 1,000 fewer eggs were produced... because the ratios have been tilted and blacktips are no longer quite as badly underpopulated as they used to be.

 

While it may appear like mass breeding efforts have made a dent in the ratios, the simple fact of not knowing the mechanics-- in addition to unaccounted variables such as passage of time, newly released breeds-- means that the data can never be determinate. After all it may be that celestial numbers are the ones shifting and not blacktips, or that the changes are just the random nature of statistical fluctuations. Statistics is tricky and not as simple as looking at number counts; while breeding can be inferred to have some effect, to what extent can't be accurately quantified.

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So basically if I (or any one else) pick up an egg from the wall and abandon it, not only have I thrust it into the last row and added a mass bred egg there, but I have also just created a new space for ANOTHER mass bred egg to appear in the allotted 24 spots?? I've effectively just given 25 spaces to the mass bred eggs?

Yeah, totally not what I was hoping for

Edited by Tawanda001

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1 hour ago, Fuzzbucket said:

I begin to think that our original suggestion of a mere 6 per breeder might have worked better....

 

Probably, but we will see. TJ did promise to change it if needed.

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7 hours ago, TJ09 said:

 

Abandoner is the person who pressed "abandon."

 

Based on the data I have, there's no need to focus on the "original" source of the eggs (cave, breeder, whatever); when I talked about how "a few people are able to disproportionately affect how others play" I was specifically looking at eggs abandoned by people, and there's not much evidence to suggest eggs from a single breeder are being spread around before being abandoned.

 

Really, no evidence?  When we have 2 days of blacktip eggs from one scroll?  The celestials, I'll give you...maybe.  But I also thought it was mostly from one scroll, too.  If people are picking up things off breed walls to check them, then abandoning them, I don't see how the change made will change things at all.  But I guess I'll wait and see.

 

The blacktip breeder might have abandoned 1000 eggs or whatever, but if 10 people are checking those eggs and reabandoning, then it won't create the line below, correct?  They haven't hit the breed limit for one abadoner?  Just because a handful of people are the "big abandoners" isn't the problem--it's that they are the big breeders.

Edited by random_dragon_collector

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I have to agree with others, knowing exactly how this update works I can't imagine it will actually *help* the issue of one-breed AP walls at all. The whole idea behind the different suggestions users offered was to stop one single breed (often bred by the same person) from walling the AP for hours. If this change only counts 'per abandoner', it won't actually help with that at all unless absolutely 0 people pick up and re-abandon the wall eggs. If anyone does, they will be counted as different 'abandoners' and their re-tossed eggs will just go right back into the wall. 

 

I feel like either we completely misunderstood what TJ was trying to accomplish here, or TJ misunderstood the issue people were hoping to address. 

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If it was ORIGINAL abandoner it would work, but that doesn't seem to be what TJ means.

Edited by random_dragon_collector

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how disappointing. theres a lot of miscommunication here. abandoning was NOT the issue, as the whole.... culture of the abandoned page as it is, is to pick up an egg, check its lineage, and toss it back if its not to your liking. this is just how it goes for many players (there are some out there undoubtably who simply pick up a breed that they like and keep it regardless of lineage, but still, i'm one of the people who are picky about lineage for the things i pick up.), so this update was.... a little pointless, imo. i was excited to see an issue there's been an outcry about for YEARS finally getting fixed, only to realize that this mechanic literally hasn't changed anything at all. i can't understand at all how "per abandoner" should be how it works. as random_dragon_collector above me has said, ORIGINAL abandoner would make TONS more sense, i.e. the original person who bred the eggs, OR the original person to abandon a CB egg they picked up, but the way that it is now makes NO sense at all to me. what was the point of this??

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It seems like TJ made it for "who abandons the most eggs at one time" without considering that list of the those who abandon the most eggs aren't necessarily people who use the AP!  The people who make breed walls might be the top 10 abandoners on the site, but they are clogging up the AP with breeding, not abandoning in the sense of sitting there for an hour playing with the AP.  It needs to be limited to 24 per breeder or at least by breed.

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I have another clarification question: Is it literally, as TJ said, 'the person who pressed abandon'? I'm like 90% sure he doesn't mean that *literally*, but given the miscommunications/misunderstandings here I'd like to be positive. Because technically someone breeding while locked doesn't press abandon at all, things are just automatically sent to the AP. 

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11 hours ago, TJ09 said:

 

 there's not much evidence to suggest eggs from a single breeder are being spread around before being abandoned.

 

Other than the evidence that comes up way too often where blacktips bred by one person takes over the AP for 2 days?  That's not evidence?  Everyone who uses the AP sees it--but then we aren't looking at data on a computer readout--we're actually using the AP.  That would also show up as a zillion abandoned by one person--initially.  But it wouldn't stay that way.

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30 minutes ago, HeatherMarie said:

I have another clarification question: Is it literally, as TJ said, 'the person who pressed abandon'? I'm like 90% sure he doesn't mean that *literally*, but given the miscommunications/misunderstandings here I'd like to be positive. Because technically someone breeding while locked doesn't press abandon at all, things are just automatically sent to the AP. 

 

I would assume he means the user they are abandoned by. While you don't actually click abandon when an egg is auto'd, the message says you decide to abandon it. But either way I am also confused as to what problem this update was meant to address then.

Edited by MissK.

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7 hours ago, Nine said:

 

While it may appear like mass breeding efforts have made a dent in the ratios, the simple fact of not knowing the mechanics-- in addition to unaccounted variables such as passage of time, newly released breeds-- means that the data can never be determinate. After all it may be that celestial numbers are the ones shifting and not blacktips, or that the changes are just the random nature of statistical fluctuations. Statistics is tricky and not as simple as looking at number counts; while breeding can be inferred to have some effect, to what extent can't be accurately quantified.

We also know the price of blacktip eggs from market has gone up, which is directly tied to rarity+ratios. (which I still find amazing) We also know ratios are affected in the short term by how other massbreeds work. If you breed a couple hundred leodons x rares, by the end of it they start spitting rares. The ratios say 'thats a lot of leodons, how about something else' which, would technically raise the rares ratios, but not enough to matter imo. 

Its also fair to say that celestials ratio may have gotten worse, but that doesn't mean the blacktip ratio didn't also get better at the same time. Especially given Amahira has done more PB blacktips than multiclutches the last year, which means it would only affect Blacktip ratios.

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Similarly, event eggs (like the Valentine's eggs that are currently in play) are simultaneously valuable but also can get in the way of hunting for non-event eggs, and will be limited to 24 visible at a time. I think that this represents a good start—and if it turns out to be enough, a good end—but there may be more tweaks in the future, depending on how things play out. Only time will tell.

 

The one issue here is that in events, there's always a bias towards the types of event eggs that are desired by users. Formerly there was a higher value at either end of the release spectrum. For instance, original event dragons such as Val 09's or holly dragons are in high demand due to the higher rate of newer users that joined after that year. Newer event dragons are also in high demand as there are less of them in circulation due to their recency. However, the recent "event biome" certainly helps out here, and so I think the value of CB events is now leaning very definitely higher in the direction of more recent releases.

 

So, what's my point? Well, as it is, there's a certain level of determination needed to hunt the AP for that specific breed of event dragon that they want, and many times that breed is sparse or highly competed over on the AP. Even prior to this change, and having an AP consisting entirely of event eggs, this has been a bit of a problem. Now limiting it to 24 eggs is exaggerating this potential issue further. What does this mean, really? Well, it means that for what I believe represents a good majority of active users, that the process of finding desirable event eggs is now stalled quite a bit more. The other result is it means the AP will become more readily "blocked" by the less desirable or more common event eggs, and so adding to the amount of time (and perhaps luck) needed for users to pick up those respective eggs. This pattern isn't unfamiliar, it basically has become a standard of the AP in general due to the natural differences in rarities of eggs. But the event breeding range is limited, and so I think this needs to be considered.

 

As with most things, it is entirely based on perspective as to whether this is a problem. Personally, I really don't hunt the AP event eggs much at least not recently. But I have in the past and I know that I really appreciated having the whole AP available for event drops. You can still easily go 10, 20 minutes and only see single digits of a specific event breed, and with a lot of other people also hunting, the odds become narrow.

 

This is where I actually do think having event eggs *in addition* to regular drops is a very, very wise idea. But limiting event eggs any further feels like it would hurt more than it helps.

Edited by Ashywolf

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19 minutes ago, Ashywolf said:

 

As with most things, it is entirely based on perspective as to whether this is a problem. Personally, I really don't hunt the AP event eggs much at least not recently. But I have in the past and I know that I really appreciated having the whole AP available for event drops. You can still easily go 10, 20 minutes and only see single digits of a specific event breed, and with a lot of other people also hunting, the odds become narrow.

 

This is where I actually do think having event eggs *in addition* to regular drops is a very, very wise idea. But limiting event eggs any further feels like it would hurt more than it helps.

 

While I agree with your point, I don't think one row of non-holidays will hurt any more than what we already had. Older holiday breeds taking over the AP and newer breeds being few and far between has been an issue for years now and probably requires some sort of direct change to actually deal with (like possibly scaling the multi-clutches to produce slightly less of the older breeds). 

(And you are way too generous with that timing, I spent hours upon hours in the AP in between Erador sightings this year, before this change was made!)

 

8 minutes ago, Ashywolf said:

I'd also be interested in knowing if any stats regarding the AP are known.

 

There have been various cases for "more egg slots" in the AP. Do we know if there are more users in the AP regularly, compared to when the page was first implemented? More or less eggs being taken from the AP in recent years? I know the answer to increasing egg rows is usually "no", on basis of having too much on the screen at once, but as someone who has been here for more than 10 years, I have long wondered if it is time to have a new row to account for an apparently rising userbase.

 

I can't comment on the stats (except to say that I've definitely seen an increase in the number of users in the AP during holiday walls), but increasing the egg slots in the AP has been talked to death at this point. A simple increase in the number of eggs shown is simply not going to accomplish what most people would want it for, ie more variety, unless the increase was huge. 

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Yeah, I am being modest with my times! I know I have spent hours for hollies many years back. But with the addition of the event biome, some of these older event breeds seem to have become more populous.

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Having left for many years and recently returned, it's great to see that literally nothing has changed. I saw some new things, and then this update, and thought maybe it finally had. But clearly I was wrong.

 

This type of change is many years overdue, but if the mechanic works as TJ describes then it won't help with AP walls at all. It will make the holiday wall less tedious, and I welcome that, but I really don't like the introduction (with no warning) of the change at the exact time so as to maximally screw over the AP neglected plans. At this point I wouldn't expect any less from DC, though.

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Gargoyle (I think) wall at 7:44 PM CT. 
 

I also second on the picking up an occasional egg out of the pile. Some of the mass breeds do wind up being interesting. In this case, if it is for abandoner, then nothing changes except around holidays, where it will not be possible to AP ND. 
 

also Re: Sapphire wall I posted about earlier. I posted the screenshot to the screenshots thread and the breeder actually replied and said they breeded I think 350 dragons or something along that walnut. So it was one person. 

67DD8564-D498-40E4-B1BF-6F37E07BFF68.png

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Yep. Wall. Pretty much solid for the last hour or so.

Once in awhile another egg breaks through in that bottom row, but this is really disappointing.

I hope @TJ09 is watching and this is not what he intended. 24 per abandoner is simply not going to work to end the walls.

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Yup, this change hasn't affected walls in any way. At all. It's so frustrating because this *could* have been a really great thing and cut down on the complaining over walls so much and made so many people happy.... But as implemented it hasn't actually done anything.

 

image.png.2d4a36930053af9371035e8a9f635a35.png

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The AP is an ugly wall again right now... meaning that either 1) more than one breeder collaborated to make this happen (WHY?), and/or 2) it's that situation where people pick up an egg to look at the lineage (or to see who is to blame for the wall) and then abandon it again -- thus causing the AP to refill with the same eggs on the bottom row.

 

@TJ09 I hope that this update can be re-tuned to target the ORIGINAL abandoners/breeders, and not just base it on "whoever touched the egg last." I realize this may be trickier coding, but we're talking about keeping the AP useful for everyone -- and not letting it be taken over (and made useless) for hours or days at a time by a bunch of same-breed eggs.

 

I really appreciate that you took the time to make improvements based on so many users' requests, and I hope you'll keep going until this actually works to eliminate the walls (except for holiday eggs, of course).

 

This update should have been a great improvement, but it looks like there is too much "human factor" involved in circumventing the intended results -- so apparently a more aggressive approach will be needed to prevent the walls that basically ruin the AP for nearly everyone while they are in place.

 

And even if you target the scroll of the originator of the egg, maybe 24 eggs displaying from the same breeder/scroll is just too generous.

 

Also: What if there were a radio button in Account Settings to select preferences on where auto-abandoned eggs go? Or, maybe after a certain (modest) number) go to the AP, all other auto-abandoned eggs are simply deleted from the system for the rest of that 24 hour period?

 

Just a few thoughts that I hope may open up useful lines of consideration. Thanks again for all your great work in making and maintaining such an awesome site!

Edited by Shinsei
Added a bit more

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Preventing the entire AP from being the same breed was never the goal. It was never even stated anywhere as being a possible goal. But cherry-picked screenshots aside, I've been following the AP for hours now and for the majority of the time I have indeed seen 6 or more different breeds visible. That suggests that the 24 limit (that I've already said is likely to be lowered) is doing exactly what it intended.

 

I'm going to keep playing with the numbers (and I'll post wherever that lands), but I don't think the base approach needs to change. The entire point is to spread out the ability to influence the AP amongst multiple people, not prevent "walls" in all their various forms. In a hypothetical extreme where 30 people all decide to breed the same breed at the same time and fill the AP, then that's fine.

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1 hour ago, TJ09 said:

Preventing the entire AP from being the same breed was never the goal. It was never even stated anywhere as being a possible goal. But cherry-picked screenshots aside, I've been following the AP for hours now and for the majority of the time I have indeed seen 6 or more different breeds visible. That suggests that the 24 limit (that I've already said is likely to be lowered) is doing exactly what it intended.

 

I'm going to keep playing with the numbers (and I'll post wherever that lands), but I don't think the base approach needs to change. The entire point is to spread out the ability to influence the AP amongst multiple people, not prevent "walls" in all its various forms. In a hypothetical extreme where 30 people all decide to breed the same breed at the same time and fill the AP, then that's fine.

 

Thanks for your reply (I had just edited my post to add a few more ideas before your reply landed -- in case that helps).

 

Just to clarify: No, it's not entirely about same-breed walls... I think what all of us want, really (although we've kind of tiptoed around it), is for a limited number of players to stop having the power to basically hold the AP hostage (for whatever reasons they may have) and thus ruin it for everyone else.

 

If you can keep people from outright abusing the game mechanics in a way that detracts from other players' enjoyment and gameplay, that will be awesome.

 

We don't want to think of anyone here as "trolling" or "griefing" -- but that is what it looks and feels like to people who just want to use the AP normally, and are faced with a non-stop wall of (often as not) gray eggs.

 

Alleviating this problem will probably go a long way toward promoting more good will among players.

 

Thanks again! I really appreciate all you do to try to keep the game fair and fun!

Edited by Shinsei
Corrected grammar

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6 minutes ago, Shinsei said:

Just to clarify: No, it's not entirely about same-breed walls... I think what all of us want, really (although we've kind of tiptoed around it), is for a limited number of players to stop having the power to basically hold the AP hostage (for whatever reasons they may have) and thus ruin it for everyone else.

 

If you can keep people from outright abusing the game mechanics in a way that detracts from other players' enjoyment and gameplay, that will be awesome.

 

 

THIS. 100%. 

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13 minutes ago, TJ09 said:

Preventing the entire AP from being the same breed was never the goal. It was never even stated anywhere as being a possible goal. But cherry-picked screenshots aside, I've been following the AP for hours now and for the majority of the time I have indeed seen 6 or more different breeds visible. That suggests that the 24 limit (that I've already said is likely to be lowered) is doing exactly what it intended.

 

I'm going to keep playing with the numbers (and I'll post wherever that lands), but I don't think the base approach needs to change. The entire point is to spread out the ability to influence the AP amongst multiple people, not prevent "walls" in all their various forms. In a hypothetical extreme where 30 people all decide to breed the same breed at the same time and fill the AP, then that's fine.

I figured you've been watching the ap closely, an immediate thing was the NR wall lasting much longer than it ever has before which was real interesting, didn't realize just how much people were scooping the NRs to get to hatchies before apparently lol. I'm enjoying finding out how this works while I impatiently wait for times to drop.

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