Coronavirus Discussion

[olympe]

4 hours ago, Classycal said:

12 weeks?  Did you mean 1 - 2 weeks?  Confused....

Yes, sorry. Somehow missed the dash.

 

5 hours ago, Astreya said:

- The Heinsberg study indeed gave a number of 10 times more infections in the town Gangelt than originally tested: https://www.uni-bonn.de/neues/111-2020

- The Kupferzell study gave a different dark number - they found that they must have had 3.9 times more infections that originally tested: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Studien/cml-studie/Factsheet_Kupferzell.html

- The Bad Feilnbach study had an even lower dark number - there they must have had 2.6 times more infections than originally tested: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Studien/cml-studie/Factsheet_Bad_Feilnbach.html

This is not surprising, all things considered. Heinsberg was the very first area affected by a major covid outbreak, and the study was performed in mid-spring. The Kupferzell study happened in early to mid summer, and Bad Feilnbach over the end of summer/early autumn. Of course, the number of tests performed is part of it. Yes, you do catch more infected people if you use more tests. (But only if there actually are infected people. @TheRealDonaldTrump) During the Heinsberg outbreak, tests were still pretty rare, compared to later dates. I mean, today we perform about 9 times as many tests a week as back then...

Edited October 10, 2020 by olympe

[HeatherMarie]

Thank you to everyone for the well-wishes, I am officially negative for Covid-19!! Got the results this morning. Thank goodness, I really had no clue what to do if it came back positive. (I would say something here about it being a scare that makes me more careful or whatever, but I think I've been about as careful as possible and I'm already staying home 99% of the time anyways... If only the scare would make my *mom* more careful....)

 

So, I live in a relatively small city (well, in my mind it is, compared to growing up in San Diego CA). Current stats: total cases 12,938 and total deaths 347. 45 new cases today, 1 new death reported today. 19 people 'currently' hospitalized (as of yesterday afternoon). A tad over 75k people tested. Numbers accurate for county residents only, can't find anything about non-resident numbers.

[Lagie]

Hooray! Glad you are negative, @HeatherMarie!

My shop volunteer who was tested this past week was, too, thank goodness.

[Astreya]

@HeatherMarie  

@Lagie

That's great to read! Please take care and stay safe!

[olympe]

@HeatherMarie @Lagie Glad to hear that!

[purpledragonclaw]

17 hours ago, Confused Cat said:

I think people are just tired of being careful. Like "we've been wearing masks and keeping our distance for months, and all we got was an ongoing pandemic, so we might as well stop".

Plus some unconscious irrational feeling that the virus will give up and go away when it sees people fearlessly partying.

 

I was just talking about this! I think, for those who remember it, that many equate this with the SARS outbreak ~17 years ago that did go away by itself. When coronavirus first hit I wondered if it would be like SARS and just... disappear, but that notion was dashed for me in May. That's when I truly realized this is it until we get a vaccine. No disappearing like SARS did so long ago. I also think many fall into the trap of thinking "Well I [just tested negative], and so did everyone around me or they wouldn't have gotten in, so I don't need my mask when I'm around others at an event."

 

Great news @HeatherMarie!

Edited October 10, 2020 by purpledragonclaw

[Classycal]

Great news HeatherMarie

[Lagie]

68 new cases today, 64 on my island - and at my friend's mum's apartment complex the neighbours are having a party. Grrr. 

 

[olympe]

Hooray, may hometown's index shot up to 63.2 yesterday. /sarcasm And on a Saturday no less, where usually not that many cases are reported. 

[Astreya]

We are over 25 today, so will be coloured orange tomorrow, too...

 

-------------------------------------

As of today, Sunday, October 11, 12:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 69 (-3) active cases, while 603 (+13) people have recovered. All in all there have been 687 (+10) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 27.5 (+4.8).

 

Currently 10 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 2 (+-0) of them in intensive care. 15 persons sadly died. 415 (+36) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 35 116 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

[olympe]

Oh my. My hometown only updated the cases for today (+29), but not the newly infected people per 100 k citizens in the last 7 days. If my math is correct (as well as the number I found for residents of my hometown), our index is over 80 now. Can we close down entertainment (like bars, sport clubs and the like) now, please? Oh, and private parties and gatherings, no matter where.

[Lagie]

Eek. That is redder and 'oranger'! Stay safe, @Astreya and @olympe!

 

Our lockdown is... hmm. At the same place as the party yesterday, there have been people in and out of the main gate all day. That's not much of a lockdown, if you ask me, and gathered together sunning by the pool and docks. My friend won't report it as she's the only other person in the building so any report will obviously have come from her.

 

55 new cases today (Sundays are always lower), all on my island, and one additional death.

 

 

And the rule-breakers (two of those do not live there):

[Astreya]

@Lagie

I read yesterday (I think) that the UK want to set up a "Corona traffic-light" as we have in (parts of) Germany, too. But when I read their "three-tier England Covid-plan, I noticed that there the thresholds are much higher than in the German version. Here the deep red areas are flagged when the 7-day-incidence passes 50 cases per 100 000 people, while in the English (not UK, it seems) version, the weakest tier goes up to an incidence of 100 cases per 100 000 people. England's level 2 with stricter rules starts at more than 100 cases per 100 000, and level 3 at "areas that have a significantly higher rate of transmission". So it seems that in Germany the alarm with restrictions is already sounded at much lower thresholds (actually at 25 -light orange- or 35 cases -dark orange-, depending on the municipalities, with 50+ cases per 100 000 being marked as severe risk areas). I think it is likely that this also helps keeping casualties down quite a bit, but of course it also makes people question if the measures may not be too strict too soon.

[Lagie]

100 cases per 100 000 people... and here we are with over 5 000 cases for our just under 400 000 people, 4 900 of them since mid-July.

[Astreya]

@Lagie

The incidence isn't the overall number of cases, but the number of new infections in a set time (in Germany it is averaged over 7 days to account for the reporting delay on the weekends).

[Lagie]

10 hours ago, Astreya said:

@Lagie

The incidence isn't the overall number of cases, but the number of new infections in a set time (in Germany it is averaged over 7 days to account for the reporting delay on the weekends).

Ah, okay. Thanks for the clarification. That's a lot of cases then. Stay safe!

[purplehaze]

Graphic from Johns Hopkins of cases in Maryland

I am in the dark red area between Baltimore and Washington.

Our positivity rate is up a bit in the last few days, as are cases and hospitalizations.

[Lagie]

Just now, purplehaze said:

Graphic from Johns Hopkins of cases in Maryland

 

I am in the dark red area between Baltimore and Washington.

Our positivity rate is up a bit in the last few days, as are cases and hospitalizations.

Eeps! Stay safe, purplehaze!

[purplehaze]

1 hour ago, Lagie said:

Eeps! Stay safe, purplehaze!

I'm doing my best. As I know you are.

[olympe]

Let's stay safe together by staying apart.  We need a song for this...

[Astreya]

Strangely enough, n-tv still has Oberhausen as grey, so it seems their map is even two days off as yesterday we were already at a 7-day-incidence of 27.5 per 100 000. But then, Olympe already pointed this out for Solingen a while ago, too.

 

Looks like the Gesundheitsamt had a break this Sunday updating-wise. But then, I guess they deserve it for all the work they have to do. The city crisis management team posted that they had people tested positive in a care home for the elderly, the Friedensdorf, and three schools.

-------------------------------------

As of today, Monday, October 12, 09:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 69 (+0) active cases, while 603 (+-0) people have recovered. All in all there have been 687 (+-0) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 27.5 (+-0).

 

Currently 6 (-4) persons are treated in hospitals, with 2 (+-0) of them in intensive care. 15 persons sadly died. 484 (+33) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 35 116 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

[Lagie]

85 new cases today, 76 on my island, and one additional death.

 

[Astreya]

It seems as if the own calculations that n-tv does differ a bit from the calculations of the city of Oberhausen. N-tv still has us at a 7-day-incidence of 21.8 per 100 000 and not 26.6 as the city's crisis management team lists..

-------------------------------------

As of today, Tuesday, October 13, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 65 (-4) active cases, while 612 (+9) people have recovered. All in all there have been 692 (+5) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 26.6 (-0.9).

 

Currently 7 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 2 (+-0) of them in intensive care. 15 persons sadly died. 500 (+16) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 35 530 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

[Classycal]

That's a lot of red Astreya.  Stay safe.

Edited October 13, 2020 by Classycal

[Ruby Eyes]

My city is now also a red spot. There's a recommendation to walk along certain streets/areas masked only. Of course, on one of those 12 streets is my office. Hooray.