Coronavirus Discussion

[HeatherMarie]

@Lagie I hope you figure out something for your thrift shop! I can't imagine owning any sort of business at the moment, goodness. But looking at your spoiler, I *really* wish the US was more similar to where you are. I don't want to get into a rant, but.... the US is consistently prioritizing 'freedom to do whatever the heck we want' over 'people's safety and lives'. ..... I'm especially disgusted at the way-too-soon reopening of schools, children should be more protected right now... Anyways. 

 

So, I got a Covid-19 test today, done at the local urgent care. Doctor said I most likely just have a respiratory infection, not actually Covid, based on my symptoms (and lack of), but I've been low-key freaking out the past three days about my increasing cough/sinus issue so I really wanted to check. I'll get a call in the next few days with the results, fingers crossed. I'm kind of 100% screwed if I actually do have it though, I mean I've already been overly-freaked the past 6-ish months about my mom possibly getting it but we live together and there really isn't a way that either of us can live anywhere else temporarily to isolate from each other... Okay I'm going to stop before I get upset. 

[olympe]

@HeatherMarie I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you. And your mum. Let's hope it's just a run-of-the-mill cold.

[Lagie]

6 hours ago, Astreya said:Here's today's 7-day-incidence map of NRW:

 

 That just gets more orange and more red!

 

I hope you're okay, @HeatherMarie!

 

I've finally figured out part of what's stressing me out about this latest change in things. Whenever anything in the Emergency Orders changes, it affects retail and my shop. It never affects the kennel staff - cage cleaning isn't affected by emergency orders - or the vets - clinics still run by appointment - or management - 8 to 4 is 8 to 4 no matter what the curfew is. Me? I have to adjust shop hours. I have to follow the rules on the number of people allowed in. I have to set times so everyone has a chance. Now, the choice is figure out to do curbside - probably a couple of tables with new stuff and lots of photos at Facebook - or close completely as our largest home store will be doing - but we are the primary income bringer for the shelter so I really would rather not close. And I wonder why I'm stressed...

[Astreya]

@HeatherMarie

I really wish all the best for you! *fingers crossed*

 

@Lagie

I really hope you'll manage to keep your shop open somehow, but of course you need to think about your own safety, too!  Maybe selling more things online does work - I really keep my fingers crossed for you, too!

 

And yeah, the growing numbers in Germany are a problem - at the moment it is mainly private celebrations (weddings with up to some hundred guests), meat factories (Tönnies is doing the next super-spreader event, it seems), private parties and particularly teens flouting all sense and rules partying in subways, parks and wherever.

 

In my hometown, currently three schools are affected, and in one of them 6 teachers and about 100 students have to be quarantined at the moment.

[purpledragonclaw]

@HeatherMarie I hope your test is negative! Please let us know!

 

Also, Stephen Miller tested positive for coronavirus. 

[Classycal]

HeatherMarie, I hope all goes well. 

 

Good luck Lagie. 

 

Astreya, there is definitely more orange and red.  

 

Has Trump lost his mind completely (yes)?  He says he's not contagious when the doctors say that he clearly is.  I'm so frustrated with him.  Oh, the people he is influencing.  How many people have gotten COVID 19 because of him?

Edited October 9, 2020 by Classycal

[Ruby Eyes]

I think he is a massmurderer at this point, isn't he?

 

So that covid-19 suspect pokes his head into my brother's office just to tell him

"Just wanted to let you know I'll be gone for 2 weeks because my test came back positive."

WHY CAN HE NOT USE A PHONE?!

Edited October 9, 2020 by Ruby Eyes

[Lagie]

2 hours ago, Ruby Eyes said:

So that covid-19 suspect pokes his head into my brother's office just to tell him

"Just wanted to let you know I'll be gone for 2 weeks because my test came back positive."

WHY CAN HE NOT USE A PHONE?!

 

Thanks, everyone, for your support!

 

151 new cases yesterday, 115 on my island. Weekend lockdowns resume tonight, and I still have coworkers walking about maskless.

 

[random_dragon_collector]

11 hours ago, Lagie said:

I've finally figured out part of what's stressing me out about this latest change in things. Whenever anything in the Emergency Orders changes, it affects retail and my shop. It never affects the kennel staff - cage cleaning isn't affected by emergency orders - or the vets - clinics still run by appointment - or management - 8 to 4 is 8 to 4 no matter what the curfew is. Me? I have to adjust shop hours. I have to follow the rules on the number of people allowed in. I have to set times so everyone has a chance. Now, the choice is figure out to do curbside - probably a couple of tables with new stuff and lots of photos at Facebook - or close completely as our largest home store will be doing - but we are the primary income bringer for the shelter so I really would rather not close. And I wonder why I'm stressed...

 

That's awful, Lagie.  I hope that diagnosing the problem makes it easier to cope with.  Sending positive vibes your way--

[Classycal]

5 hours ago, Ruby Eyes said:

So that covid-19 suspect pokes his head into my brother's office just to tell him

"Just wanted to let you know I'll be gone for 2 weeks because my test came back positive."

WHY CAN HE NOT USE A PHONE?!

Exactly.  He's a Covidiot.  

[Astreya]

@Classycal

By now I'm absolutely speechless about Mr.Trump's callousness and irresponsibility. I wish there were a possibility to charge him with murder (what he does goes beyond causing bodily injury caused by neglect).

 

@Ruby Eyes

That's outrageous! I hope your brother stays safe anyway. Some people are so utterly reckless and stupid (a very bad combination).

 

One more person died from Covid-19 in Oberhausen. A 84 year old man without any comorbidities as they write. One children's daycare facility reported an infection, and 8 carers and 39 children have to be quarantined. So even here the number of cases rises faster than ever before. I hope this can be kept under control again. Unfortunately we still don't have any information whether the persons listed as "recovered" have really recovered or how many of them suffer from long Covid.

 

That's how the NRW situation looks like today (or rather yesterday, as the data is usually one day old):

-----------------------

As of today, Friday, October 8, 14:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 62 (+8.) active cases, while 590 (+5) people have recovered. All in all there have been 667 (+14) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 19.4 (+2.8).

 

Currently 11 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 2 (+1) of them in intensive care. 15 persons sadly died. 325 (+63) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 34 948 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

[olympe]

@Astreya Something must be wrong with that graph. Yesterday, we were still very, very close to 50. Now, we've breached that particular barrier. 50.9 per 100 k per week is the current amount. Solingen should be red.

Edited October 9, 2020 by olympe

[Astreya]

@olympe

Looks like ntv also have a one day "Meldeverzug" (="answering delay"). They list Oberhausen with 16.6, too - the website of the city says 19.4 for today.

 

Here you can see the graph live: https://www.n-tv.de/infografik/Coronavirus-aktuelle-Zahlen-Daten-zur-Epidemie-in-Deutschland-Europa-und-der-Welt-article21604983.html

 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Astreya

[purplehaze]

19 hours ago, HeatherMarie said:

So, I got a Covid-19 test today, done at the local urgent care. Doctor said I most likely just have a respiratory infection, not actually Covid, based on my symptoms (and lack of), but I've been low-key freaking out the past three days about my increasing cough/sinus issue so I really wanted to check. I'll get a call in the next few days with the results, fingers crossed. I'm kind of 100% screwed if I actually do have it though, I mean I've already been overly-freaked the past 6-ish months about my mom possibly getting it but we live together and there really isn't a way that either of us can live anywhere else temporarily to isolate from each other... Okay I'm going to stop before I get upset.

*Hugs!* Hope your test is negative!

 

Our figures in the state are rising -- both new cases and hospitalizations. The state is still showing a figure under 3% for our infection rate, but Hopkins figures show us at 6%. That is a huge difference, but they do their calculations differently. Hopkins uses per person, so only shows counts one result per person regardless of the number of tests a person may have had, while the state uses per test figures, counting all tests performed. I'm not really sure which is the more accurate way of doing it, but Hopkins figures are rising while the state remains stable.

 

@Lagie - good luck to you with the shop. That is a tough position to be in.

[olympe]

I've been wondering what might have caused our numbers (Germany overall) to skyrocket the way it did. It certainly wasn't the start of school that did it, as there's too much of a delay for that. We aren't doing all many things different than before, either. And while soccer games now allowing an audience (at about 20 to 25% capacity) again might be a factor, I think there's something else at play.

 

About two weeks ago, we had a rather drastic change in weather - from summer-like hot, sometimes oppressively hot weather to rainy and (compared to before) cold weather suitable for late autumn. Which has two different effects: First, people don't meet outside as much as before. It's just too cold and too wet outside to be comfortable. For the same reasons, people probably don't open their windows as often as they should. Not to mention that bad weather means more colds and weaker immune systems.

 

Another obvious trend is that the regions with high population density have worse stats than those with lower density - which I presume is a global trend. I know I saw something similar when looking at the JHU site with all the red dots for covid cases.

 

I may be way, way off with blaming the weather and its effects, but it's as good a theory as any other.

[purplehaze]

31 minutes ago, olympe said:

I may be way, way off with blaming the weather and its effects, but it's as good a theory as any other.

I'm sure it is at least partly to blame, inasmuch as it makes it more likely that people are gathering indoors rather than outdoors, in spaces that are not as well ventilated.

[Astreya]

@olympe

As purplehaze already mentioned, I would assume quite some cases will likely be caused by indoors spreading. Plus you will likely have seen the news reports of particularly young adults partying like there is no tomorrow - and the people were shown without masks, hanging closely together, hugging etc. Or those huge family celebrations - today in Essen the police had to take care of a clan funeral where 300 people showed up instead of the allowed 50. And IMO even 50 would have been too many for my taste. Similarly there seem to be many outbreaks due to weddings.

 

[Lagie]

20 minutes ago, Astreya said:

Or those huge family celebrations - today in Essen the police had to take care of a clan funeral where 300 people showed up instead of the allowed 50.

Yeah... like the funeral in the graveyard I pass on my way home after work. We are allowed 10. There were easily 60 or 70 and more still arriving.

[Confused Cat]

I think people are just tired of being careful. Like "we've been wearing masks and keeping our distance for months, and all we got was an ongoing pandemic, so we might as well stop".

Plus some unconscious irrational feeling that the virus will give up and go away when it sees people fearlessly partying.

[Astreya]

That sounds quite logical. Unfortunately it doesn't make things better. So now the rules will be tightened again and more fines given out - maybe this will help getting things under control again.

 

But for now the orange and red is increasing (my city is fortunately still grey, but probably not much longer):

[Source]

[Confused Cat]

The numbers of diagnosed cases in Switzerland are looking like we're having a second wave right now, but I just saw this graph which makes things look a little different.

 

Blue = diagnosed cases

Red line = hospitalizations (note that the scales are different, numbers for the red line are on the right)

 

 

The article that the graph is from says that many cases with mild or no symptoms are now detected that would have simply gone unnoticed in March.

(So the tall blue bars on the left should probably be several times taller than they are, and then the graph would be flattened for easier reading, and then the right side would not look as dramatic as it does now.)

Not really new information, but I wasn't aware the difference was this big!

So no matter how much worrying is appropriate right now (and that might be "a lot" anyway), it should still be less than in March. Also nice to know that so many people who test positive do not have to go to the hospital. (Of course I still believe I would end up with severe health damage or dead if I got it.)

 

 

[olympe]

@Confused Cat There's another factor that keeps hospitalizations low, though. Or, rather, two that I can think of.

• Currently, there are mostly young people getting infected. People from an age bracket that are at low risk of severe covid, much less at risk of dying. Which results in lower hospitalization rates overall, as well as a lower death toll.
• I don't know if it's the same in Switzerland as in Germany, but we tend to test pretty much everyone with the mildest symptoms of a cold, as well as everyone who has been in contact with someone with covid. As a result, covid infections are caught much sooner, way before a hospitalization occurs. Consider the average time from infection to hospitalization to be somewhere around 1-2 weeks, and you can say that the rate of hospitalizations should go up a notch 1-2 weeks after an increase in hospitalizations. Deaths - on average - take an additional 2-4 weeks to occur.

Sorry I don't have a source for either one of my claims in my second point. The first I know I read somewhere, and it's only logical that an infectious disease takes some time to get bad enough to force you into a hospital.  And the second, well, I've looked at numerous graphs for new cases per day and deaths per day from various countries, and the shift was pretty much uniform and noticeable.

 

However, you're correct about the first wave being bigger than we know. I know that there was a study using antibody tests performed on Heinsberg, the first hotspot in Germany, and if I remember correctly, only around one out of ten cases was actually "caught" by a test. The rest was either asymptomatic or only had light symptoms and never went to get tested. So, yes, the first wave was probably much bigger than the official numbers.

Edited October 10, 2020 by olympe

[Astreya]

One graph that tells a bit more about the infection number is probably the percentage of positive laboratory tests. In KW14 (beginning of April), it was up to 9 percent, while then it fell down to 0.59% in KW 28 (beginning of July). At the moment is is on the rise again from 0.74% in KW36 (beginning of September) to 1.64% now:

Spoiler

 

- The Heinsberg study indeed gave a number of 10 times more infections in the town Gangelt than originally tested: https://www.uni-bonn.de/neues/111-2020

- The Kupferzell study gave a different dark number - they found that they must have had 3.9 times more infections that originally tested: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Studien/cml-studie/Factsheet_Kupferzell.html

- The Bad Feilnbach study had an even lower dark number - there they must have had 2.6 times more infections than originally tested: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Studien/cml-studie/Factsheet_Bad_Feilnbach.html

 

The RKI's SeBluCo study of 30 000 blood samples of blood donors from 28 areas gave that around 1.25% of them had Covid-19 antibodies.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/SeBluCo_Zwischenbericht.html

 

-------------------------------------

As of today, Saturday, October 10, 12:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 72 (+10) active cases, while 590 (+-0) people have recovered. All in all there have been 677 (+10) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 22.7 (+3.3).

 

Currently 9 (-2) persons are treated in hospitals, with 2 (+-0) of them in intensive care. 15 persons sadly died. 379 (+54) persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 35 116 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

 

Edited October 10, 2020 by Astreya

[Classycal]

8 hours ago, Confused Cat said:

Plus some unconscious irrational feeling that the virus will give up and go away when it sees people fearlessly partying.

I don't know why, but this reminded me of the ST Voyager episode where a giant virus is chasing Janeway and trying to eat her.  That pretty much describes Corona though doesn't it?

 

2 hours ago, olympe said:

@Confused Cat 

• I don't know if it's the same in Switzerland as in Germany, but we tend to test pretty much everyone with the mildest symptoms of a cold, as well as everyone who has been in contact with someone with covid. As a result, covid infections are caught much sooner, way before a hospitalization occurs. Consider the average time from infection to hospitalization to be somewhere around 12 weeks, and you can say that the rate of hospitalizations should go up a notch 1-2 weeks after an increase in hospitalizations. Deaths - on average - take an additional 2-4 weeks to occur.

 

12 weeks?  Did you mean 1 - 2 weeks?  Confused....

[Lagie]

91 new cases yesterday, 82 on my island, and 4 additional deaths.

 

 

It is very very quiet today, with the full lockdown this weekend.

Edited October 11, 2020 by Lagie