Coronavirus Discussion

[StormBirdRising]

Global Updates of the Pandemic

US emergency approval broadens use of COVID-19 drug remdesivir

Gilead Science Inc's antiviral drug remdesivir was granted emergency use authorisation by the US Food and Drug Administration as a treatment for COVID-19, clearing the way for broader use of the drug around the US.

During a meeting at the White House with US President Donald Trump, Gilead Chief Executive Daniel O'Day called the move an important first step and said the company was donating 1.5 million vials of the drug to help patients.

The donation is expected to be enough for at least 140,000 patients, depending on the number of days they need to be treated.

Gilead said on Wednesday that the drug, which is given intravenously, had helped improve outcomes for patients with COVID-19 and provided data suggesting it worked better when given earlier in the course of infection.

Meanwhile, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has launched a national viral genomics consortium to better sequence the transmission of COVID-19.

UK COVID-19 death toll rises, shadowing Italy

The United Kingdom's COVID-19 death toll rose 621 to 28,131 as of May 1, just short of Italy which has had the deadliest novel coronavirus outbreak among European countries.

"Sadly of those tested positive for coronavirus... 28,131 have now died," housing minister Robert Jenrick told reporters at a Downing Street briefing. "That's an increase of 621 fatalities since yesterday."

Italy reported a death toll of 28,236 on May 1.

Spain makes masks mandatory

Spain will make masks mandatory on public transport from Monday to prevent a new wave of coronavirus infections, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said.

The Madrid government, which had until now "highly recommended" the use of masks, will distribute six million across the country from Monday and supply another seven million to local authorities.

Indonesia reports 292 new cases, 31 deaths

Indonesia recorded 292 new coronavirus cases, taking the total number of infections to 10,843, said health ministry official, Achmad Yurianto.

Yurianto also reported 31 new deaths, taking the total number of fatalities to 831. The number of people who have recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, rose by 74 to 1,665, he said. The country has tested more than 79,800 people for the virus, he said.

More than 40,000 cases confirmed across Africa

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has surpassed 40,000 across Africa, including nearly 1,700 deaths and more than 13,000 recoveries, accoding to Africa CDC.

At least 53 African nations have confirmed the new coronavirus infections.

 

[ValidEmotions]

Hey @StormBirdRising Your county does not have the lowest number of cases, let alone the lowest number of deaths compared to other California counties. It's not even close to the lowest in terms of # Cases per 100,000 people.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cases.html#county

 

Here's a breakdown of my state by county. Do note: Nevada is a Dust Bowl state with large counties and lots of small cities. Las Vegas is really our only major city and everything else is significantly smaller. So, people are stretched out further apart, especially more towards the eastern parts of the state.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/nevada-coronavirus-cases.html#county

And my entire state is on Stay At Home/Lockdown orders. Has been for several weeks now.

I'm in Washoe County. Las Vegas is in Clark County.

Edited May 2, 2020 by ValidEmotions

[StormBirdRising]

4 minutes ago, ValidEmotions said:

Hey @StormBirdRising Your county does not have the lowest number of cases, let alone the lowest number of deaths compared to other California counties. It's not even close to the lowest in terms of # Cases per 100,000 people.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cases.html#county

 

Here's a breakdown of my state by county. Do note: Nevada is a Dust Bowl state with large counties and lots of small cities. Las Vegas is really our only major city and everything else is significantly smaller. So, people are stretched out further apart, especially more towards the eastern parts of the state.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/nevada-coronavirus-cases.html#county

And my entire state is on Stay At Home/Lockdown orders. Has been for several weeks now.

I'm in Washoe County. Las Vegas is in Clark County.

 

Sorry you spent so much time on your research. Unfortunately you got your California information from the New York Times and I got mine from the California Equivalent of the CDC, so I trust my stats more, and apparently so do all the news stations out here.

We have no lock down orders at all in the OC, we're just hanging out at the beach listening to the Beach Boys playing "wish they all could be California girls" as we drink our Gatorades and chill out during the Covid 19 pandemic, in the sun with the surf and the wind keeping us healthy. 

[ValidEmotions]

"California Equivalent of CDC"

There's a lot wrong with that because I'm pretty certain you're actually reading something that's been designed by your Orange County leaders who have their own biases.

The NYT information is actually very close to accurate because I double-checked it against my state's central health response and the numbers are near identical. I bet you didn't even open the links because of your bias against NYT. These are hard numbers, hard stats. There's no "fake news" about it. 

[StormBirdRising]

Tracking Africa's coronavirus cases

More than two months after Egypt became the first country in Africa to confirm a coronavirus case, the outbreak appears to have reached almost every nation on the continent of 1.2 billion people.Of Africa's 54 countries, only one has yet to report a case of the virus: Lesotho.

As of May 1, the confirmed coronavirus death toll on the continent stood at 1,689, with fatalities including the former President of the Republic of the Congo Jacques Joachim Yhombi-Opango and Somalia's former Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein. There are 40,746 confirmed infections and 13,383 recoveries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

On May 1, South Africa began easing one of the world's strictest lockdowns to Level 4, which means that businesses can now resume limited operations and people can leave their homes for exercise between 6am and 9am (04:00-06:00 GMT). A night curfew from 8pm until 5am (18:00 -03:00 GMT) is still in place.

Rwanda has also announced a partial lifting of coronavirus restrictions, and said it will allow some people to return to work on May 4 in a bid to revive the economy.

"Public and private businesses will resume work with essential staff while other employees continue working from home. The manufacturing and construction sectors will open with essential workers," said a communique issued by Prime Minister Edouard Ngirente after a cabinet meeting on Thursday.

"Markets will open for essential vendors not exceeding 50 percent of registered traders. Hotels and restaurants will open and close by 7 pm, but meetings in public spaces and mass gatherings are prohibited," it said.

Experts warn fragile healthcare systems in many African countries could be overwhelmed in the face of a severe outbreak of COVID-19, the highly infectious respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

Edited May 2, 2020 by StormBirdRising
corrections

[olympe]

1 hour ago, StormBirdRising said:

 

Sorry you spent so much time on your research. Unfortunately you got your California information from the New York Times and I got mine from the California Equivalent of the CDC, so I trust my stats more, and apparently so do all the news stations out here.

We have no lock down orders at all in the OC, we're just hanging out at the beach listening to the Beach Boys playing "wish they all could be California girls" as we drink our Gatorades and chill out during the Covid 19 pandemic, in the sun with the surf and the wind keeping us healthy. 

Well, just wait until people from neighboring counties and even states come visit your beaches, as they're being kept open. Wait until the evil outsiders - never people from OC, of course - spread the "foreign virus" in *your* county and see what happens then. Happy chilling. Happy waiting for our collective I-told-you-so. And congrats on a collective Darwin Award for Orange County.

[StormBirdRising]

8 minutes ago, olympe said:

Well, just wait until people from neighboring counties and even states come visit your beaches, as they're being kept open. Wait until the evil outsiders - never people from OC, of course - spread the "foreign virus" in *your* county and see what happens then. Happy chilling. Happy waiting for our collective I-told-you-so. And congrats on a collective Darwin Award for Orange County.

 

Cali beaches are open for EVERYONE.  Last weekend there were thousands of Angelinos on OC beaches because Mayor Garcetti and Governor Newsom are keeping Los Angeles beaches locked up even though it is not working in Los Angeles to keep the Covid-19 down. The OC has always been open for everyone. Surfers come from all over the country and all over the world to surf at Huntington Beach. They are always welcome. Only someone really mean spirited and evil would be happily waiting to say I-told-you-so because you are hoping that the OC catches the Covid 19.

And I won't be receiving your collective Darwin Award because that has obviously already been awarded to you. I don't think you understand that the children here are really suffering because of all the closures of school and activities. Children all over the country and maybe the whole world are totally lost and don't understand what is going on, how can they, most adults don't understand it. There has been a huge rise in child abuse and domestic abuse because they have no where to go to get away from their abusers. They need to go to the beaches and to the parks and have some semblance of the life they had before. It is no more dangerous for them to be on the beach or in a park than it is for them to be anywhere else. So sit in your ivory tower and cast dispersions but we are doing the best we can here in the OC and anyone is welcome to come here, there are no restrictions on travel between counties or state to state.

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by StormBirdRising

[olympe]

There's a difference between hoping and expecting - and not in a happy way, mind you. I'm resigned to see it happen. And there's no happily waiting from my part, but from your part. You're happy, aren't you? Happily chilling at the beach. Well, if too many people think the same way as you, you are bound to have problems, especially with Covid-19. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. But it takes some evilness to assume other people are evil or mean-spirited. 

 

But yeah, feel like your nation's saviors because your beaches are open - for now. You'll see what happens.

 

Personally, my own tolerance for bull**** has been filled to the brim and over for today, so you spouting your nonsense just gets the answer it deserves.

[StormBirdRising]

7 minutes ago, olympe said:

There's a difference between hoping and expecting - and not in a happy way, mind you. I'm resigned to see it happen. And there's no happily waiting from my part, but from your part. You're happy, aren't you? Happily chilling at the beach. Well, if too many people think the same way as you, you are bound to have problems, especially with Covid-19. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. But it takes some evilness to assume other people are evil or mean-spirited. 

 

But yeah, feel like your nation's saviors because your beaches are open - for now. You'll see what happens.

 

Personally, my own tolerance for bull**** has been filled to the brim and over for today, so you spouting your nonsense just gets the answer it deserves.

 

"Wait until the evil outsiders - never people from OC, of course - spread the "foreign virus" in *your* county and see what happens then. Happy chilling. Happy waiting for our collective I-told-you-so. And congrats on a collective Darwin Award for Orange County." That's your quote, not mine. That's you hoping that the 3,300,000 men, women, and children get the virus in the OC. 

That's as mean and evil as it gets. Our beaches are open rain, storm, shine. They are a haven and a comfort for all of us and for anyone who cares to visit them.

[catstaff]

12 minutes ago, StormBirdRising said:

 

(Snipped) ...we are doing the best we can here in the OC and anyone is welcome to come here, there are no restrictions on travel between counties or state to state.

 

 

You might not be seeing restrictions on travel between counties or even between states, but they do exist.

 

Hubby and I had to relocate for his new job, as in, we moved out of our place in Westchester county, NY on Thursday and moved into our new apartment in MD on Friday. Just got internet back this morning, had to do the install ourselves because the cable company won't send techs into anyone's home right now. They came and did whatever on the outside, then dropped off the equipment and instructions at our door. As we crossed the state line into MD, signs up on I-95 stated that anyone coming in from NY, NJ, or CT has to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival - part of why we moved so quickly, his job doesn't start until the 18th, but we prefer to follow the rules. I can understand the caution. We're coming in from a county that's had more Covid-19 deaths than this county has had cases. Yes, we've been self-isolating for five weeks already, but they don't know that. Also, what if we picked up something from the movers? Or from someone in the rest area when we stopped for a potty break along the road?

 

No one's saying people can't go outside. But there's a big difference in going outside in your backyard or even walking the dog in the park while staying away from others, and going to a crowded beach.

[TerraAnne]

11 hours ago, StormBirdRising said:

 

It's not like that at all. California Governor Gavin Newsom sent notices to Sheriffs and Police Chiefs in California that he was closing Orange County beaches (which have never closed down) because of the Covid 19 coronavirus and expected their full cooperation. Sheriffs and Police Chiefs fired back that they would NOT deprive Californians of their Constitutional rights and that they would NOT enforce the order. When Newsom ordered OC beaches closed anyway, 3,000 OC residents went to Huntington Beach where the police showed up, to protect the beach goers and protestors. The police directed traffic and used the Mounted Patrol to maintain order. It was just another day at the beach for Californians and the police officers who protect and serve them.

 

Right now we are being told to stay home for no reason. It is reasonable to quarantine people who are sick, but quarantining people who are healthy makes no sense at all. If  people are in the target group, over 60 with pre existing conditions or people with serious medical conditions, they should choose to remain in self isolation, self quarantine, or shelter in place to avoid the Covid 19 coronavirus, but healthy people, especially children and young adults, should be allowed to choose to do the things that allow them to maintain their physical and mental health without fear of government interference.

 

The fundamental question is whether going to the beach is dangerous. The idea that Californians are in greater danger at the beach than they are when visiting Costco or Walmart, or for that matter an open marijuana dispensary, is ridiculous.

 

Children digging in the sand, teenagers surfing, and people reading a good book in a beach chair threatens the health and safety of no one. It is time for Gov. Newsom to stop pretending otherwise. Let cities and counties do their jobs and respond to the needs of their local populations. Let facts prevail over false media narratives. Keep the beaches open.

 

Quarantining people who are healthy does make sense because you can actually have this virus and not show ANY symptoms. A healthy looking individual could be carrying it and passing it to people without knowing. There is plenty of evidence already from many sources showing asymptomatic people. That's why the lock downs were done for everyone including those who showed no symptoms in order to prevent spread from asymptomatic people.

EDIT: Sorry didn't realize that post was a page back I wouldn't have brought it up again if I had realized.

Edited May 2, 2020 by TerraAnne
Apology

[olympe]

1 hour ago, StormBirdRising said:

 

"Wait until the evil outsiders - never people from OC, of course - spread the "foreign virus" in *your* county and see what happens then. Happy chilling. Happy waiting for our collective I-told-you-so. And congrats on a collective Darwin Award for Orange County." That's your quote, not mine. That's you hoping that the 3,300,000 men, women, and children get the virus in the OC. 

That's as mean and evil as it gets. Our beaches are open rain, storm, shine. They are a haven and a comfort for all of us and for anyone who cares to visit them.

Repeat after me: "I swear to God I will never again put words into people's mouths or posts that didn't come from there. I'm never going to willfully misinterpret what I read online and attack the person for what I perceive. Instead, I will be a decent human being for a change and ask for clarification before vilifying someone."

Thank you. ❤️

 

There's nowhere I say that I hope this happens. For the record, I don't. It's what I see as a logical consequence of what is currently going on. Also, for the record, I do not expect everyone to get the virus, as that's highly unlikely bordering on impossible, and much less do I hope for it. That's not who I am. What I expect is for the Covid-cases to rise dramatically within the next 2-4 weeks. But, yes, consequences of your collective actions (or inaction, whatever you may want to call it) are most definitely evil, and pointing them out is even more so. And when aforementioned consequences actually happen, you'll probably say they're my fault because I made them happen somehow by merely pointing them out.

[Astreya]

@olympe

It appears to me that Stormbird is always heavily projecting her own thoughts into what people write. It is the same in the US politics thread.

 

[Info: Psychological Projection for those who are not psychology nerds]

[Raikielia]

14 hours ago, StormBirdRising said:

 

It's not like that at all. California Governor Gavin Newsom sent notices to Sheriffs and Police Chiefs in California that he was closing Orange County beaches (which have never closed down) because of the Covid 19 coronavirus and expected their full cooperation. Sheriffs and Police Chiefs fired back that they would NOT deprive Californians of their Constitutional rights and that they would NOT enforce the order. When Newsom ordered OC beaches closed anyway, 3,000 OC residents went to Huntington Beach where the police showed up, to protect the beach goers and protestors. The police directed traffic and used the Mounted Patrol to maintain order. It was just another day at the beach for Californians and the police officers who protect and serve them.

 

Right now we are being told to stay home for no reason. It is reasonable to quarantine people who are sick, but quarantining people who are healthy makes no sense at all. If  people are in the target group, over 60 with pre existing conditions or people with serious medical conditions, they should choose to remain in self isolation, self quarantine, or shelter in place to avoid the Covid 19 coronavirus, but healthy people, especially children and young adults, should be allowed to choose to do the things that allow them to maintain their physical and mental health without fear of government interference.

 

The fundamental question is whether going to the beach is dangerous. The idea that Californians are in greater danger at the beach than they are when visiting Costco or Walmart, or for that matter an open marijuana dispensary, is ridiculous.

 

Children digging in the sand, teenagers surfing, and people reading a good book in a beach chair threatens the health and safety of no one. It is time for Gov. Newsom to stop pretending otherwise. Let cities and counties do their jobs and respond to the needs of their local populations. Let facts prevail over false media narratives. Keep the beaches open.

 

So you're cool with the asymptomatic carries also hanging out on the beach? What about the people who have it, but haven't started showing symptoms? Because you're contagious before you show symptoms. This has been hospitalizing and killing people younger than 60 with no preexisting conditions, too. 

 

5 hours ago, StormBirdRising said:

in the sun with the surf and the wind keeping us healthy. 

 

You can stay healthy without going to the beach.

[Daydreamer09]

3 hours ago, StormBirdRising said:

 

Cali beaches are open for EVERYONE.  Last weekend there were thousands of Angelinos on OC beaches because Mayor Garcetti and Governor Newsom are keeping Los Angeles beaches locked up even though it is not working in Los Angeles to keep the Covid-19 down. The OC has always been open for everyone. Surfers come from all over the country and all over the world to surf at Huntington Beach. They are always welcome.

 

I hate to choose sides, but Olympe is 100% right on this. And the danger of having thousands of people on a California beach isn't just something that would affect your state. Idiots are going to travel there from other states. When they come back home, there's a real danger and possibility they'll bring it back from catching it from another tourist. From what I've heard that's exactly what happened in Florida this past spring break.

 

If the beach has restrictions and someone's there to keep people from gathering in groups, that's one thing, but having them completely open is a real issue and concern. I understand they need to stay open because the beaches are for everyone just like the parks are. But you can't ignore the fact that not having anything at all is going to help this pandemic spread and more people can die as a result.

[purpledragonclaw]

2 hours ago, olympe said:

There's nowhere I say that I hope this happens. For the record, I don't. It's what I see as a logical consequence of what is currently going on. Also, for the record, I do not expect everyone to get the virus, as that's highly unlikely bordering on impossible, and much less do I hope for it. That's not who I am. What I expect is for the Covid-cases to rise dramatically within the next 2-4 weeks. But, yes, consequences of your collective actions (or inaction, whatever you may want to call it) are most definitely evil, and pointing them out is even more so. And when aforementioned consequences actually happen, you'll probably say they're my fault because I made them happen somehow by merely pointing them out.

 

Yep, this right here. I wish more people understood that we protect each other more when we voluntarily stay inside. I'm already waiting for the stats on coronavirus to spike in places that have had these protests to re-open the economy, especially since one of the protest leaders in North Carolina tested positive already. 

 

And double yes, the Darwin awards are going to be quite the read after this. 

 

4 hours ago, StormBirdRising said:

And I won't be receiving your collective Darwin Award because that has obviously already been awarded to you.

 

This award is only given to those who have died. Olympe hasn't died, so they can't get the award. 

[Lagie]

That will be our problem going forward - we're a tourist destination, usually. Once our borders open again, how do we protect ourselves from asymptomatic carriers visiting our islands?

 

Our beaches have been closed since mid-March and will remain so until at least June.

 

I was meant to be house sitting starting Thursday next. Of course, with all that is happening, there's no travel beyond our borders, and the graduation ceremony they were to be attending in Virginia has been postponed. Then on top of that, the lady's eldest sister died today in England, most likely from Covid-19 complications, and they can't travel to there either.

[KrazyKarp]

Quarantining for a while is fine, but I’m confused on the benefits of doing it long-term. I could be looking at it wrong, but don’t we need at least one of these two things to happen?

1. People get infected, build up antibodies, herd immunity basically

2. Vaccine

 

So quarantining isn’t very productive in the long-term, is it? Don’t we need people to get infected and get those antibodies? Which sounds bad, but that seems to be the factual, logical thing. Unless we get a vaccine very soon, that is.
 

It also makes me confused about celebrating lower case numbers. That’s great, but it’s not permanent. It doesn’t matter if we quarantine for another week or another decade - without a vaccine, it’s pointless. Numbers will shoot back up - a flattened curve is pointless, unless it’s because of herd immunity or a vaccine, the only two cases where a flattened curve is more permanent.

 

Again, maybe I’m not looking at this correctly? But a lot of what we’re doing now seems to be pointless from what I can tell.

[RainDear]

My opinion. Just my opinion. Not speaking for anyone else.

 

As time passes more things are being learned about this thing all the time.

At first we were told not to wear masks unless we had symptoms. At that time it was thought we could have it for about 2 days without showing symptoms. 

Then we learned that it could take 2-14 days for symptoms to appear. 

Now we know that some people have it and never show symptoms and we are contagious when we have the virus whether we have symptoms or not. Now masks are recommended for everyone when out and about. 

We don't know what new facts will be brought to light next.

 

I feel that I see two attitudes. I am sure there are many more,.

 

My favorite quote which I saw recently on Facebook shows one: I'm not afraid of catching it. I'm afraid of passing it to someone who isn't strong enough to fight it.

 

The other is something like: I will do what I want when I want. It is not my job to worry about you. You protect yourself as best you can.

 

I sincerely hope I epitomize the first. That is my goal for myself. I will wear some kind of face covering when I am out and about. I will do my best to follow the other guidelines to the best of my ability. I stay home unless I must go out. I spend time outside in my own yard. I hope no one here dies of this thing.

[Kith]

There's also a middle solution to bridge the gap between nothing and a working vaccine: monoclonal antibodies. They take less time to isolate, replicate, and scale up to production level than a full vaccine, but can be administered to current patients to reduce viral load and those who have yet to contract it for temporary protection. Since the protective timetable is weeks to months, it may not be long enough to protect everyone until a vaccine is fully developed and deployed, but it's definitely better than none at all in either case.

[Daydreamer09]

31 minutes ago, KrazyKarp said:

Quarantining for a while is fine, but I’m confused on the benefits of doing it long-term. I could be looking at it wrong, but don’t we need at least one of these two things to happen?

1. People get infected, build up antibodies, herd immunity basically

2. Vaccine

 

So quarantining isn’t very productive in the long-term, is it? Don’t we need people to get infected and get those antibodies? Which sounds bad, but that seems to be the factual, logical thing. Unless we get a vaccine very soon, that is.
 

It also makes me confused about celebrating lower case numbers. That’s great, but it’s not permanent. It doesn’t matter if we quarantine for another week or another decade - without a vaccine, it’s pointless. Numbers will shoot back up - a flattened curve is pointless, unless it’s because of herd immunity or a vaccine, the only two cases where a flattened curve is more permanent.

 

Again, maybe I’m not looking at this correctly? But a lot of what we’re doing now seems to be pointless from what I can tell.

I think part of the reason we need to social distance (quarantine is actually more extreme) long-term is that #2 on your list. Ideally it'd keep the curve down until one gets released. There are vaccine trials being ran and tested, however it takes time to see if they are actually effective and there needs to be time to monitor if there's any negative long-term side effects. Last I heard, the fall would possibly be the soonest a vaccine is found.

 

I don't think the idea of promoting herd immunity without using a vaccine is actually a good idea with such a high death rate from the disease. It'd be at a cost of human lives.

 

What Kith brought up reminded me that I have been hearing about blood transfusions from people who have recovered from covid that seem to be helping critical cases in hospitals.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Daydreamer09

[Raikielia]

31 minutes ago, KrazyKarp said:

So quarantining isn’t very productive in the long-term, is it? Don’t we need people to get infected and get those antibodies?

 

Everyone will get it eventually. The point of quarantining, social distancing and wearing masks is to slow the spread. If we go about like normal and don't do anything to slow it, then the hospitals become overwhelmed. People get better care when there's less people in the hospital. Plus, the more time they have to study current cases, the better possible treatments they'll be able to come up with.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Raikielia

[KrazyKarp]

A vaccine could possibly be ready in the fall. But it's not guaranteed, is it? And even if that does happen, would the vaccine be ready for mass production? Of course we all hope for a vaccine in the fall (or even sooner!), and hope it will quickly be ready for mass production. But it's something I'm cautiously optimistic about, unless there's an overwhelming amount of evidence that nearly guarantees it (is there? I'm actually not sure about this). Herd immunity does cost lives, which is an unfortunate fact, but it's also what we've done as a species throughout our entire history because it's effective. It's far more logical to do than wait for a vaccine that may or may not arrive soon, isn't it? I'm not trying to argue - I'm a bit paranoid about coming across like that, so if I do come across like that then I'm sorry! I'm just trying to gather other perspectives on this and to see if I have bad information.

 

The blood transfusion is something I hadn't heard about, and it's really cool and interesting. So they have begun doing that? Because that's truly amazing!

 

Hospitals becoming overwhelmed is concerning, though, I do understand that.

Edited May 3, 2020 by KrazyKarp

[Astreya]

19 hours ago, KrazyKarp said:

So quarantining isn’t very productive in the long-term, is it? Don’t we need people to get infected and get those antibodies? Which sounds bad, but that seems to be the factual, logical thing. Unless we get a vaccine very soon, that is.

There are some problems with the "let's let the disease run its course until 70% of the people were infected and got antibodies".

 

1. Currently it is not known whether surviving  Covid-19 and developing antibodies leads to a lasting immunity. There have been some cases where people who had the infection recovered, then tested negative for the virus, but a while afterwards either relapsed or got infected anew.

 

2. At the moment the CFR (case fatality rate, that is how many people with confirmed infection died) for Germany is given as 4.1% according to the RKI. As we test quite a lot, this is probably closer to the truth than the 7.25% for the world (May 2). So let's assume you live in a town with 100 000 citizens. If you let Covid-19 run its course, you will probably have 4000 to 7250 casualties. Do you think this is an acceptable number?

 

3. According to the RKI, in Germany 18% of the infected people need hospital care, 2.8% intensive care. Let's take these numbers and look at the hypothetical town of 100 000 citizens. As mentioned above to get the herd immunity, 70% of the citizens will need to get infected if there is no vaccine and no NPI (non-pharmaceutical intervention like distancing etc). This would mean 70 000 persons altogether get infected. Of these  12 600 need hospital care, 1960 of them ICU care.

 

Let's look at the hospital beds per 1000 people. The US has 2.9, UK 2.8. Germany 8.3, France 6.5, Italy 3.4 and Spain 3.0. That means if you are in the US you'd have 290 beds for your town of 100 000 people. With 12 600 people needing hospital care, you'd get into trouble very soon if you get too many infections too fast. The number of ICU beds is even lower. There you have the following number of ICU beds per 100 000 people: US has 34.7, UK 6.6. Germany 29.2, France 11.6, Italy 12.5 and Spain 9.7. When you have 1960 persons needing ICU care in the hypothetical 100 000 citizens town, this is a bleak outlook for them.

 

Moreover, if you fill your hospitals with Covid-19 patients, this leaves no beds whatsoever for all the normal problems, from heart attacks over stroke, appendicitis, up to cancer treatments. There you'd get additional casualties as they just don't get any free hospital beds any more.

 

4. At the moment it appears that people suffering from Covid-19 might not fully recover for a long time even when they don't have any detectable virus load any more:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-some-patients-may-suffer-lasting-lung-damage

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/lingering-and-painful-long-and-unclear-road-to-coronavirus-recovery-long-lasting-symptoms

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/how-is-this-possible-researchers-grapple-with-covid-19s-mysterious-mechanism

 

I hope this answers your question a bit!

Edited May 3, 2020 by Astreya
Olympe was right - it's 290 ICU beds, not 2900

[Daydreamer09]

1 hour ago, KrazyKarp said:

A vaccine could possibly be ready in the fall. But it's not guaranteed, is it? And even if that does happen, would the vaccine be ready for mass production?

Well, that's exactly why I said "possibly be the soonest" 😓

With human ingenuity and how many countries are currently throwing scientists and medical professionals into studying the virus, disease and possible cures, I feel really confident that something will eventually pan out as a treatment. It's just until then we as a species have to do our best to lower the virus' impact.

 

 

1 hour ago, KrazyKarp said:

Herd immunity does cost lives, which is an unfortunate fact, but it's also what we've done as a species throughout our entire history because it's effective.

Corona is a new virus that up until a few months ago nobody had previously been exposed to or had any immunity. If there's a similar historical example that comes to my mind, it would be when europeans introduced diseases to natives in the Americas. The native populations, being isolated were never exposed to these new diseases and so many of them weren't able to fight them off. Native populations were hit HARD. It's maybe an extreme comparison, but one which I think goes to show the problem with thinking it's effective. Maybe in the long, long run from an evolution standpoint, sure, but there's a huge gamble of human lives involved with relying on herd immunity.

 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Daydreamer09