Coronavirus Discussion

[Astreya]

There are currently two studies in Germany with representative selections of people where researchers want to determine the "real" number of infections and the ways the disease is spreading.

 

- Some info about the first one from NRW (Heinsberg region):  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/virologists-to-turn-germany-worst-hit-district-into-coronavirus-laboratory

- Info about the study in Bavaria: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/corona-muenchen-lmu-studie-dunkelziffer-1.4866592 (Language: German)

[ValidEmotions]

I don't think we can, let alone should, count deaths caused by heart attack, cancer, organ failure, etc. as COVID 19 deaths. At the very least, not all of them. It's likely not easy to determine in one direction or the other, but if we just say "well, they had these serious conditions, but because they also had COVID, it must be COVID that killed them" would be entirely inaccurate. It would skew statistical information about medically-related deaths and could misrepresent the idea that "cancer deaths went down!" or something. 

 

Let's consider: COVID is a respiratory infection. If someone was confirmed to have COVID and then died because their lungs shut down, then they likely died from COVID. But if their liver and kidneys stopped working, or they had cardiac arrest, then it probably wasn't COVID, even if they were confirmed infected.

Edited April 3, 2020 by ValidEmotions

[Astreya]

It seems to be possible that Covid-19 targets the kidneys, too, not only the lungs: https://www.hospimedica.com/covid-19/articles/294781220

[olympe]

8 minutes ago, ValidEmotions said:

I don't think we can, let alone should, count deaths caused by heart attack, cancer, organ failure, etc. as COVID 19 deaths. At the very least, not all of them. It's likely not easy to determine in one direction or the other, but if we just say "well, they had these serious conditions, but because they also had COVID, it must be COVID that killed them" would be entirely inaccurate. It would skew statistical information about medically-related deaths and could misrepresent the idea that "cancer deaths went down!" or something. 

 

Let's consider: COVID is a respiratory infection. If someone was confirmed to have COVID and then died because their lungs shut down, then they likely died from COVID. But if their liver and kidneys stopped working, or they had cardiac arrest, then it probably wasn't COVID, even if they were confirmed infected.

Actually, Covid-19 is known to cause multi-organ failure, as well as kidney failure in particular. Just like Covid is known to cause pneumonia. And Lymphocytopenia, meaning your immune system is severely compromised. Covid can also cause a cytokine release syndrome, leading to an inflammatory response. (How both can happen at the same time, I have no idea.) Another typical consequence of Covid is septic shock. All of them can be deadly, yet they're known typical complications of Covid, and should be counted as Covid-deaths if they happen.

 

If you shoot a bullet through someone's heart, the heart naturally stops beating, killing the victim. Well, either the heart stopping or severe and sudden blood loss. But what would you determine to be the cause of death? The shooting? Or the blood loss / cardiac arrest? Naturally, neither blood loss nor cardiac arrest would have happened without the bullet...

[Astreya]

For German speakers - here is an article that reviews the causes of death for Covid-19 patients in Germany.

We had

- Pneumonia

- Lung failure

- Septic shock

- Heart failure (caused by Covid-19)

 

Source: https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/infektion-mit-dem-coronavirus-schwerer-verlauf-von-covid-19-patienten-sterben-nicht-nur-an-lungenentzuendung_id_11767981.html

[ValidEmotions]

16 minutes ago, olympe said:

Actually, Covid-19 is known to cause multi-organ failure, as well as kidney failure in particular. Just like Covid is known to cause pneumonia. And Lymphocytopenia, meaning your immune system is severely compromised. Covid can also cause a cytokine release syndrome, leading to an inflammatory response. (How both can happen at the same time, I have no idea.) Another typical consequence of Covid is septic shock. All of them can be deadly, yet they're known typical complications of Covid, and should be counted as Covid-deaths if they happen.

 

If you shoot a bullet through someone's heart, the heart naturally stops beating, killing the victim. Well, either the heart stopping or severe and sudden blood loss. But what would you determine to be the cause of death? The shooting? Or the blood loss / cardiac arrest? Naturally, neither blood loss nor cardiac arrest would have happened without the bullet...

I understand your last point. However, my point is, not every single medially-related death is likely caused by COVID. Complications arise and I'm well aware that diagnoses for COD from autopsies aren't going to be easy to determine with 100% certainty when COVID is involved unless there was without doubt no other medical issues. 
I just would rather numbers be accurate about how people are dying, even if it means they need to be explicit like "this person was infected with COVID but they also were battling blood cancer for 3 years and was in chemo therapy in the last four months" instead of just going "yup, COVID is to blame, no ifs ands or buts, no need to investigate further".

Edited April 3, 2020 by ValidEmotions

[Astreya]

In Germany the patients are thoroughly analysed, and the RKI has an overview about the co-morbidities of the various patients here: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/14_20.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

[Lagie]

Two more deaths here.

They showed a map

and lo, at the bottom right of the pink square, where there's a green dot in the grey section? I live basically across the street from there.

And in the largish blue section at the top, the green dot on the left is not far from my workplace.  It's a small island.

 

The PM is SOOOOO MAD at the number of people NOT following instructions that he has locked EVERYTHING down for the weekend.

No food stores, no pharmacies, no gas stations, nothing, until Monday at 5 a.m. when the previous set of restrictions return.

All the rest of the class has to suffer because of a bunch of idiots who cannot follow the rules.

(And I had planned to finally go shopping - after 14 days of not - tomorrow...)

[Classycal]

2 hours ago, olympe said:

Actually, Covid-19 is known to cause multi-organ failure, as well as kidney failure in particular. Just like Covid is known to cause pneumonia. And Lymphocytopenia, meaning your immune system is severely compromised. Covid can also cause a cytokine release syndrome, leading to an inflammatory response. (How both can happen at the same time, I have no idea.) Another typical consequence of Covid is septic shock. All of them can be deadly, yet they're known typical complications of Covid, and should be counted as Covid-deaths if they happen.

 

Exactly and well said.  

 

2 hours ago, ValidEmotions said:

I just would rather numbers be accurate about how people are dying, even if it means they need to be explicit like "this person was infected with COVID but they also were battling blood cancer for 3 years and was in chemo therapy in the last four months" instead of just going "yup, COVID is to blame, no ifs ands or buts, no need to investigate further".

 

The thing is most cancer patients don't die of cancer.  They die of something else.  In the case of COVID-19, it would be the COVID-19.  But that isn't necessarily true of all diseases, and in some cases maybe it does need to be mentioned that something else was going on.  But if someone has an underlying condition such as asthma, and they get COVID-19 and they died, it isn't the asthma that killed them.  It is this COVID-19.  That's the same with many other underlying conditions.  And if someone is on a ventilator, it increases their chances of organ failure including kidney failure and heart failure which can lead to a myocardial infarction (heart attack).  As Olympe said, COVID-19 also increases the chances of multi-organ failure.  

 

I hope you have enough food for the weekend Lagie.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Classycal

[Lagie]

56 minutes ago, Classycal said:

But if someone has an underlying condition such as asthma, and they get COVID-19 and they died, it isn't the asthma that killed them.  It is this COVID-19.  That's the same with many other underlying conditions.  And if someone is on a ventilator, it increases their chances of organ failure including kidney failure and heart failure which can lead to a myocardial infarction (heart attack).  As Olympe said, COVID-19 also increases the chances of multi-organ failure.  

 

I hope you have enough food for the weekend Lagie.

I have asthma. And a kidney condition. And high blood pressure. COVID is scary !

And yes, thankfully, enough food for a few more days.

[random_dragon_collector]

10 hours ago, Lagie said:

I have asthma. And a kidney condition. And high blood pressure. COVID is scary !

And yes, thankfully, enough food for a few more days.

 

I'm glad you are being extra careful and have food for the weekend!  Complete weekend shutdown seems like a good idea.

 

I got a Trump covid19 postcard in Ohio--perhaps because it's a swing state? 

 

ETA:  read back a couple pages and saw postcard talk.  I just happened to text a pic to my sister because we were texting when it came--I got mine on March 28, and it is the white/blue one with "President Trump's Coronavirus Guidelines for America."  Not a Trump fan, by the way, just giving info with date and place for information purposes.  Can't find it--already out with recycling, but it was probably addressed to postal customer.  I only took a pic of the non-address side.  It does say "For more contact, please visit coronavirus.gov March 16, 2020" from the CDC.  Don't know if that's when it was printed--that might be the date the CDC created the url.  I agree with folks that the president denied it for as long as he could, though, and probably had no hand in creating the postcard.

Edited April 4, 2020 by random_dragon_collector

[Classycal]

 

I think my card was green, but I've thrown it away, so I can't double check.  

[Fuzzbucket]

16 hours ago, Classycal said:

The thing is most cancer patients don't die of cancer.  They die of something else.  In the case of COVID-19, it would be the COVID-19.  But that isn't necessarily true of all diseases, and in some cases maybe it does need to be mentioned that something else was going on.  But if someone has an underlying condition such as asthma, and they get COVID-19 and they died, it isn't the asthma that killed them.  It is this COVID-19.  That's the same with many other underlying conditions.  And if someone is on a ventilator, it increases their chances of organ failure including kidney failure and heart failure which can lead to a myocardial infarction (heart attack).  As Olympe said, COVID-19 also increases the chances of multi-organ failure.  .

What about the people who are not getting the cancer care they need because of covid-19  Their deaths are at least indirectly caused by the virus. The knock on effect - even if they aren't infected - and as those who were on chemo (I have personal knowledge of two of these, who are not getting the chemo they were on because of it) are severely immuno-compromised. if they are infected and die - it WILL have been the covid-19 that killed them. Even though they already had cancer.

 

And before anyone says this isn't happening - the two cases I know of personally are in Canada, and this is what's happening in the UK too.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-crisis-is-stopping-vital-cancer-care-doctors-say

 

The facts as we already know them are chilling:

 

Quote

 

On 6 March, a group of epidemiologists at Imperial College London gave the White House coronavirus taskforce a heads-up about the terrifying projections for the disease they were about to publish relating to the US.

The Imperial scientists’ findings would have induced paralytic fear in all but the most nonchalant American. They likened Covid-19, which by that point had already extended its tentacles into at least 28 states in the US, to the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed 50 million people around the globe.

On the basis of their modelling, they calculated that if nothing was done to halt the spread of the disease, within weeks it would infect 81% of the US population. The virus would ravage the nation, eviscerate its health system and – here came the sting – put 2.2 million Americans into body bags.

 

 

That's a worst case scenario - but it can still happen.

[Classycal]

1 hour ago, Fuzzbucket said:

What about the people who are not getting the cancer care they need because of covid-19  Their deaths are at least indirectly caused by the virus. The knock on effect - even if they aren't infected - and as those who were on chemo (I have personal knowledge of two of these, who are not getting the chemo they were on because of it) are severely immuno-compromised. if they are infected and die - it WILL have been the covid-19 that killed them. Even though they already had cancer.

 

Exactly.  If someone with cancer gets COVID-19 and they die, it is the virus that killed them - not the cancer.  

 

Since the CDC is now recommending that everyone wear masks, I am making them.  

Edited April 4, 2020 by Classycal

[purpledragonclaw]

2 hours ago, Fuzzbucket said:

That's a worst case scenario - but it can still happen.

 

Darn right it can still happen. I'm wearing my mask in public now, and thankfully when I went out today more people than not were wearing masks as well. People are also being really good at respecting social distancing.

[Raikielia]

3 hours ago, Fuzzbucket said:

Quote

On 6 March, a group of epidemiologists at Imperial College London gave the White House coronavirus taskforce a heads-up about the terrifying projections for the disease they were about to publish relating to the US.

The Imperial scientists’ findings would have induced paralytic fear in all but the most nonchalant American. They likened Covid-19, which by that point had already extended its tentacles into at least 28 states in the US, to the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed 50 million people around the globe.

On the basis of their modelling, they calculated that if nothing was done to halt the spread of the disease, within weeks it would infect 81% of the US population. The virus would ravage the nation, eviscerate its health system and – here came the sting – put 2.2 million Americans into body bags.

 

 

Well, it's a little hard to compare COVID-19 to the 1918 flu pandemic because they didn't have the technology we do today. We can save more people, probably, but only if people do what they're told and stay home. The biggest issue still is overwhelming the hospitals. If we can just slow the spread so not everyone is sick at once, then people who can be saved can be. If they're overwhelmed, then people who might have been able to be saved are more likely to die.

[olympe]

37 minutes ago, Raikielia said:

Well, it's a little hard to compare COVID-19 to the 1918 flu pandemic because they didn't have the technology we do today. We can save more people, probably, but only if people do what they're told and stay home. The biggest issue still is overwhelming the hospitals. If we can just slow the spread so not everyone is sick at once, then people who can be saved can be. If they're overwhelmed, then people who might have been able to be saved are more likely to die.

It's hard in some ways, and rather easy in others. The story is similar: There's a cold-like disease running wild that kills a certain percentage of the population. There's no cure and no vaccination (yet). In both cases, the US are among the slowest to react.  There's the worldwide spread today, and even a century ago due to WWI - it was American soldiers that brought it to Western Europe en masse. From there it spread Eastwards to India and Asia. It was somehow imported to Australia (Sydney - probably by ship), Africa (definitely by ship - it was a harbor town) and back to the US (another ship, probably from Norway). From then on, in spread through all of the Americas. Both then and now, conspiracy theories about the origin of the disease ran or run rampant.

 

And, while we do have better technology to save people - Covid still proves more deadly than the Spanish flu. Not to mention that, where hospital beds and especially ICU beds are scarce, the technology won't be available for everyone. 

 

Interesting facts: The Spanish flu rampaged from spring 1918 to sometime in 1920. Some Americans tried to stop the spread by ordering a quarantine for ships before leaving harbor (so nobody sick would leave), but this was stopped by higher-ups. Some suggestions for the people included washing hands, avoiding mass gatherings, not using other people's cutlery, not sneezing/coughing/spitting uncontrolled and so on.

[Fuzzbucket]

1 hour ago, Raikielia said:

 

Well, it's a little hard to compare COVID-19 to the 1918 flu pandemic because they didn't have the technology we do today. We can save more people, probably, but only if people do what they're told and stay home. The biggest issue still is overwhelming the hospitals. If we can just slow the spread so not everyone is sick at once, then people who can be saved can be. If they're overwhelmed, then people who might have been able to be saved are more likely to die.

 

No - but they were WARNED that social distancing was smart and Philly messed up BIG time.

 

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

[StormBirdRising]

Without playing shoulda, woulda, coulda, boo hoo hoo I know more than you, the CDC released the following statistics for the coronavirus in the US, 277,000 with 6,600 deaths, as of 1600 yesterday. All states and US territories report their statistics to the CDC who then tally the data, report it to the President and release it to the public.

[olympe]

I'm confused now. We all know where to look up current stats. There are several helpful links, plus there's google. So what's your point in posting stats that are a day behind?

[StormBirdRising]

55 minutes ago, olympe said:

I'm confused now. We all know where to look up current stats. There are several helpful links, plus there's google. So what's your point in posting stats that are a day behind?

 

They are the official ones. In the United States we have 50 sovereign states and 5 territories under 1 federal government reporting to the CDC. Right now today's figures haven't even been sent by some states.

 

This can only happen in the US, I think, people not taking this seriously,

Of the 70 University of Texas students that chartered a plane to go to Cabo, Mexico, for the spring break, after self isolation and stay at home advisements, 44 students have tested positive so far.

Edited April 4, 2020 by StormBirdRising
added

[olympe]

Trust me, idiots are everywhere. I've seen many Germans post online that Covid is just a hoax by the government to induce a desired recession, and that the media are in on it and thus fanning the flames. And because of that, there's absolutely no reason to be afraid of Covid or to practice social distancing. Well that or a variation thereof. 

[Lagie]

Idiots are indeed everywhere, including those that ventured away from their homes here in a full lockdown. I wonder how many arrests will be reported tomorrow.

 

4 more cases. 1 more death.

[Astreya]

@olympe

Well, in Germany, the RKI stats are usually one day behind, too, as they only publish the verified stuff they get from the Gesundheitsämter (=Local Health Offices) via the Länder (= the German federal states). The stats at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are faster, but probably not 100% reliable as they get them from varied sources.

[purpledragonclaw]

1 hour ago, StormBirdRising said:

This can only happen in the US, I think, people not taking this seriously,

 

Ignorance is a worldwide phenomenon that knows no ethnicity, religion, economic class, or gender.

 

27 minutes ago, olympe said:

I've seen many Germans post online that Covid is just a hoax by the government to induce a desired recession, and that the media are in on it and thus fanning the flames. And because of that, there's absolutely no reason to be afraid of Covid or to practice social distancing. Well that or a variation thereof. 

 

You just described Fox News until very recently.