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trystan

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Anytime! 

 

And yay! I'm glad for you! I have a friend in Germany, so I hope she can get the help she needs for her issues, as well as her husband. :)

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@AsymDoll13

Let's hope for the best!

 

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As of today, Tuesday, December 7, 09:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 819 (-73) active cases, while 13 895 (+89)  people are considered to have recovered. 391 (+2) persons sadly died. 1048 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 15 105 (+18) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 261.0 (-11.0) / Incidence for NRW: 297.0 (+6.7).

 

Currently 47 (+2) persons are treated in hospital, with 9 (-1) of them in intensive care, 4 (+-0) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 148 886 (1st jab, 70.6%) and 141 363  (2nd jab, 67.0%) and 16 909 (3rd jab, 8.0%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Nov 29, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

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Thank you Astreya for all the articles! I pass on links to my group, who passes them on as needed. This thread has been a wonderful resource I'm grateful for every post!

 

I'm finally feeling better! That booster really kicked my butt, and I think it set of a small fibromyalgia flare, but still worth it! I didn't get the headache, thank goodness, so got to lay around and watch Christmas movies and finish up some knitting for presents, and now I have a ton more antibodies, so win-win.


AsymDoll13, if it's already in GA, we'll be getting it up here in TN soon 😔 Stay as safe as you can! I'm disappointed in TN over all the stupidity and political posturing regarding covid.

 

Kestra, I laughed when I saw the vault suit! 

 

If everyone had done the right thing at the beginning, and then got the vax as soon as it was possible, do you think we could have knocked covid down? or would it still have done all the mutations? I, too, fully believe we'll always have this around, at least for the rest of my lifetime, unfortunately. I was joking that they're going to have to start naming the variants like they do the hurricanes (gallows humor gets me through life) It feels like we're living that movie Idiocracy right now, but a much darker version.

 

DragonMage, I'm shocked and dismayed at your doctor! That is ridiculous. I'm so sorry that happened to you. I hope you'll be trying to or can find a new primary care, because that is just stupid. I also hope you're feeling better?


   This pandemic has really outed who the good doctors are and those to avoid, and for that I'm glad. I was going to have my husband see my MIL's doc, as he doesn't yet have a primary (because he will rarely go to the doctor at all), but that doctor  has advised my MIL to NOT get the vax due to her lupus and heart issues, when all the research I've done says she can safely get it. (She won't now because of that, and because she leans to the antivax side 🙄 I will keep trying though! ) She does take precautions, but still, for her and my FIL, it's so dangerous!

 

I was reading -I can't find it! - that covid may have been here earlier than they thought? Like possibly Nov 2019, or even earlier in the Summer?

 In late 2019, my husband was severely ill, like nothing he's ever had, and almost went to the ER because he couldn't breathe, and had all the rest of the symptoms of covid. He's super high risk so I'm surprised it didn't kill him, though I think it got close with how bad his breathing got. (I am a germophobe, so masked and disinfected constantly, so I didn't catch it-or if I did, I had zero symptoms.) In one of my groups, there are more than a handful of people who had the same thing, around the same time, so it seems plausible to me that covid was already here that early?

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@Uther_Pendragon

You're very welcome!

 

As for Covid-19 being detected earlier in 2019...

There was this article by Reuters:

Quote
Researchers find coronavirus was circulating in Italy earlier than thought

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus was circulating in Italy in September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan shows, signaling that it might have spread beyond China earlier than thought.

The World Health Organization has said the new coronavirus and COVID-19, the respiratory disease it causes, were unknown before the outbreak was reported in Wuhan, central China, late last year. But it has said “the possibility that the virus may have silently circulated elsewhere cannot be ruled out.”

The WHO said on Monday it was reviewing the results from Italy and additional information published there at the weekend and was seeking clarification.

Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a small town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.

The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.

A further SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research titled “Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy”.

It showed that four cases dating back to the first week of October were positive for antibodies, meaning they had got infected in September, Giovanni Apolone, a co-author of the study, told Reuters.

“This is the main finding: people with no symptoms not only were positive after the serological tests but also had antibodies able to kill the virus,” Apolone said.

“It means that the new coronavirus can circulate among the population for a long time and with a low rate of lethality, not because it is disappearing, only to surge again,” he said.

The WHO said it would contact the paper’s authors “to discuss and arrange for further analyses of available samples and verification of the neutralization results”.

Italian researchers told Reuters in March that they reported a higher than usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and flu in Lombardy in the last quarter of 2019 in a sign that the new coronavirus might have circulated earlier than thought.

Reporting by Giselda Vagnoni; additional reporting by Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Janet Lawrence

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27W1J2

 

BUT it seems as if there were some issues with this study, and thus

Quote

The paper is one of six about COVID-19 that has earned an expression of concern, along with 90 that have been retracted.

Source: https://retractionwatch.com/2021/03/24/paper-claiming-presence-of-sars-co-v2-in-italy-in-2019-earns-expression-of-concern/

 

I haven't found any more current article that has verifiable information about earlier Covid-19 outbreaks than the initial one in Wuhan, even though some scientists assume the virus could have spread earlier in Wuhan, but wasn't properly identified.

 

As for flu-like or cold-like symptoms of unclear genesis in Autumn 2019 - don't forget that there are numerous strains of respiratory viruses around for ages, among them other types of coronaviruses.

Here's some more info by the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html

And of course there is always influenza, too: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/index.html

 

About your question whether we could have knocked Covid-19 down if everybody got their vaccination. Well, in that case there would certainly have been less deaths from the disease where more people got vaccinated.

 

But I don't think we could have avoided mutations as there are too many countries which don't have the money and/or manpower for a good working health system. As long as there are people where the virus can stay for a while and multiply, as long there will be mutations. Additionally, mutations can happen in animals, too - SARS-CoV-2 shows that it can jump between animals and humans and back to animals.

 

For influenza, pigs and birds are potent mixing cauldrons. For Covid it is not fully known yet, although their were quite some Covid cases detected in animals, too.

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4 hours ago, Astreya said:

For Covid it is not fully known yet, although their were quite some Covid cases detected in animals, too.

Yeah. Apparently two hippos have now been diagnosed with Covid, according to a news report this afternoon. :blink: One a 14-year-old, one a 41-year-old. Go figure.

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@Lagie

I fear a bigger problem than hippos might be the fact that various cat species already have been diagnosed with Covid-19, from lions and tigers in zoos to pet cats held at home. Cats can get the virus from humans and then infect other cats. It is not known yet whether it is possible for cats to infect humans.

 

Another possible reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 are white-tailed deer in the US where a study found the virus in a high percentage of the examined animals. [Source] and [Source]

 

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As of today, Wednesday, December 8, 09:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 769 (-50) active cases, while 13 978 (+83)  people are considered to have recovered. 391 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1118 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 15 138 (+33) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 246.0 (-15.0) / Incidence for NRW: 290.2 (-6.8).

 

Currently 46 (-1) persons are treated in hospital, with 10 (+1) of them in intensive care, 4 (+-0) of them needing artificial respiration.

 

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As of today, Thursday, December 9, 11:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 809 (+40) active cases, while 14 077 (+99)  people are considered to have recovered. 393 (+2) persons sadly died. 1154 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 15 279 (+141) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 233.3 (-12.7) / Incidence for NRW: 293.2 (+3.0).

 

Currently 38 (-8) persons are treated in hospital, with 11 (+1) of them in intensive care, 6 (+2) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 151 149 (1st jab, 71.6%) and 143 417  (2nd jab, 68.0%) and 40 771 (3rd jab, 19.3%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 7, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

Edited by Astreya

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On 12/6/2021 at 10:45 PM, Astreya said:

@AsymDoll13

Thank you very much for the explanation! I didn't know Fallout, but now I could properly inform myself in the appropriate places! :)

 

Finally the new German government is taking form. I'm pretty positive that we finally got a Federal Health Minister who will really know what he's doing as the designated Health Minister Dr.Karl Lauterbach (he still has to be confirmed by the parliament) is a medical doctor and professor for epidemiology and health economics.

Indeed a reference to the Fallout games. And I always feel happy about ministers who actually come from the field in which they are now the minister for.

 

Ahh, good old zoonosis...

 

Could we have knocked it down? Not sure. Part of me wants to look at SARS and MERS and say  "yes, it happened before!" - we haven't had any cases of SARS in seventeen years after all, and prevention control was the same as before. But then again it didn't achieve the spread of COVID-19 by a long shot, despite also being a coronavirus. Is that because the world was less open at the time, harder to get somewhere? That it was easier to lock down on because of that? It's certainly part of the puzzle.

 

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in a very open, interconnected world, in a state that (in my personal opinion) was not and has not been open and honest about the spread. (I don't mean that I believe any of the theories about it being human-made, spilled from a lab etc, but I do not for a second believe they've only had 100,000 cases and 4,600 deaths given they are the ground zero to the pandemic and actively supressed information about it at the start.) Problem is, by the time the world was able to react to the news carriers had already moved far and wide across China and the world, not knowing what they carried. The virulence of the disease means it spread quickly from those cases, and just propagated from there.

 

I firmly believe earlier control methods would have saved lives. I firmly believe better governmental leadership in many countries and better personal accountability would have preserved more. I absolutely believe the vaccine - and the more effective ones I am sure will emerge - is the way forward to protect and safeguard us against it. And so perhaps it would have not had such a dramatic impact and we wouldn't be looking at a death toll in the millions just yet. But it still would have mutated, still had other variants. We just may have been in a better state to weather them.

 

We've gone back to having to put two patients to a single bed-space again in our local ICU.

Edited by Kestra15

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(To be fair, I don't know much about Fallout, just the Vault. xD)

 

My friend in Germany got her booster today and I'm so happy for her! ^^

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Booster shot booked!

Pfizer. Monday at 10:30 a.m. :)

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@Kestra15 very well said! Also, I'll take any Vault Dweller jacket with a number other than 76 on it. ;) 

 

@Lagie congrats and good luck!

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@Lagie

Great! I'll keep my fingers crossed for no side-effects for you!

 

Now with the Omicron variant showing up, the German Bundestag (parliament) and Bundesrat (second chamber, something a bit like the US senate) set some new legislation into motion to protect vulnerable people better - so now all health workers need a mandatory vaccination. Considering the fact that some care workers who continued to work with Covid then infected many of their elderly and sick patients, a large percentage of which then died, this is really over time.

 

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As of today, Friday, December 10, 08:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 830 (+21) active cases, while 14 134 (+57)  people are considered to have recovered. 393 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1041 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 15 357 (+78) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 220.0 (-13.3) / Incidence for NRW: 285.2 (-8.0).

 

Currently 35 (-3) persons are treated in hospital, with 12 (+1) of them in intensive care, 6 (+-0) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 151 149 (1st jab, 71.6%) and 143 417  (2nd jab, 68.0%) and 40 771 (3rd jab, 19.3%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 7, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

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8 hours ago, Astreya said:

@Lagie

Great! I'll keep my fingers crossed for no side-effects for you!

Thanks! Two of my volunteers got their boosters - and their flu shots at the same time :blink: - and, not surprisingly, aren't feeling so well today...

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Eep! I just read that there are already two verified Omicron cases in Dinslaken and Duisburg, two direct neighbour towns of my home town!  o_O

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On 12/7/2021 at 10:05 AM, Uther_Pendragon said:

 

If everyone had done the right thing at the beginning, and then got the vax as soon as it was possible, do you think we could have knocked covid down? 

 

This is such an interesting concept to talk about (with non-conspiracy-minded people, at least). I definitely think the death count could have been lowered significantly if people had reacted differently, but I'm not sure exactly *how* much it could've been contained. I haven't done any deep research about the first places outside of China to get it or anything like that. But most definitely this would have been less of a murder-virus if lockdowns had been enforced from the very beginning, everyone actually obeyed lockdowns/masks/distancing/etc, no politicians/governments denied the actual facts (*cough*Trump!*cough*), etc. And everyone eligible for vaccines got them as soon as possible, of course. 

 

The new variant has been confirmed in Arizona now, though about 200 miles from where I am. I'll be getting my booster next week, I was going to schedule it for this week but with other stuff going on my anxiety was not having it. 

 

Today's updates here:

Spoiler

December 10 Covid update

 

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@HeatherMarie

That's interesting - I just looked up Yuma County (AZ) to have a better comparison, and it looks as if you have a population almost identical to my home town - an estimated 213 000 in 2019 (versus 211 000 here), although you have a population density of 14 persons per square kilometre, while we have 2178 persons per square kilometre here.

 

I think it is interesting that despite the extremely sparse population density, you have almost three times as many total cases (43 230) than we have (15 357). Out of curiosity - how well do people in your county follow anti-infection rules (masking, distancing, washing hands etc)?

 

Totally forgot - one of the first cases in Europe was probably in Germany, when on 27  January 2020, the first SARS-CoV-2 infection was discovered at the company Webasto where at least one person got infected by a Chinese colleague who just flew over from China for a seminar. There were additional cases following this, but nonetheless this initial outbreak was contained successfully.  AFAIK this was also the first verified human-to-human transmission in Europe.

Here's an article about it from the LANCET: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext

 

The second outbreak in Germany, which was caused when two infected persons visited a carnival party where 300 people gathered in a badly ventilated festival room in Gangeln (Heinsberg region) on February 15, then wasn't contained anymore as the number of infected persons totally overwhelmed the track and trace capabilities of the local health office. -_-'

Edited by Astreya

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Anyone have that thing now where if you even sniffle, you've caught COVID? Being an anxious person and adding on a bit of a fear of doctors/hospitals has not made the last almost 2 years fun. 

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@AsymDoll13

I can understand your anxiety, but there are numerous other viruses and bacteria that could be the culprits, too.

 

I remember when several months ago my Dad suddenly developed flu-like symptoms and a fever of 39* deg C, I was extremely worried, too. I called his GP who came over the next day and took a PCR test which was sent to the lab the same day, but when the result came a few hours later, it was gladly not SARS-CoV-2.

 

You definitely should get tested if you have such symptoms, but in many cases you will fortunately get a negative result for Covid-19.

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I'm only a tiny bit sniffly with a slightly unhappy throat. I know that I get sinus infections a lot, so it feels like that. 

 

Thanks for the advice though. :) It does make me feel better that there are people out there that validate everyone's concerns instead of telling people to just get over it. 

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Well, I've an accreditation as a nature cure practitioner and to get that I had to study quite some medicine, too - among that there were numerous exercises in "differential diagnostics", meaning that to determine a certain disease you will have to look at numerous things that have similar symptoms. So I wouldn't just dismiss things and take them too lightly, but similarly try not to panic either :D

 

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2 hours ago, Astreya said:

Eep! I just read that there are already two verified Omicron cases in Dinslaken and Duisburg, two direct neighbour towns of my home town!  o_O

Eek! Stay safe!

And now we know why you're such a good researcher. ;)

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@Astreya  I'm assuming the huge number difference is a combination of several factors, including actual mask/distancing mandates being made so late (end of March 2020, two full months after first case in the state, and the 'stay home' order wasn't put out until end of April 2020) and rescinded too early (late March this year, though business shutdowns were lifted or relaxed much earlier). Many businesses opened back up late last year than closed again when new cases went up (the bank I use re-opened and re-closed it's lobby 3 times...) Some businesses around here still enforce mask-wearing and social distancing (mostly doctor/health services) but most don't, and personally I think the whole 'masks not required if you are vaccinated' is ridiculous because of course people will take advantage of that whether they are vaccinated or not and no one is doing anything to check... Anyway. 

 

(Also, I can't really compare to other places but here in the US we have way too much 'conspiracy!' and 'freedom!' going on and there is definitely a good portion of people in Yuma that most likely didn't take any of it seriously for too long...)

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@HeatherMarie

Yeah, one could read that the initial Covid-19 response in the US was a bit ...problematic, and that is still is not easy as a lot of it is very politicised.

 

But I thought that these problems notwithstanding,  distancing with a population density of 14 per km^2 should be easier than at 2178 persons per km^ 2.  (Even the city of Yuma doesn't look as densely populated with 344 persons per km^ 2.)

 

I remember that after the Heinsberg outbreak in February 2020, the hugest fear was that when the virus would hit the denser populated regions like the cities in the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan area it certainly would spread like wildfire there, because there we have a very dense network of public transport which is well frequented (normally around 4 million people per day).

 

Our first general anti-covid measures (school and kindergarten closures, postponed academic semesters and prohibited visits to nursing homes to protect the elderly)  were mandated on March 13, 2020, in the following days the lockdown was expanded with curfews etc. In this first lockdown, people were actually pretty careful and kept mostly to the rules as we had daily reports of the catastrophe in Italy, which very early was hit much harder as any of the other European countries.

(Here's an interesting Covid pandemic timeline for Germany: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Germany)

 

One should think that by now people should have learned how best to deal with SARS-CoV-2, but unfortunately even here we have a combination of people getting really fed up with the pandemic (and who are thus tired of the measures) and a suspected amount of 15-20% conspiracists who among other idiocies think that the vaccination is more dangerous than the disease, the disease is actually an invention (there are really people who claim that there are no Covid-19 patients in the hospitals!) and various other wild theories "from the internet".

 

In Germany it is really easy to see where the main clusters of conspiracists (and AfD supporters as more than half of the AfD voters gave answers in polls that showed they believe in various conspiracy theories) are located - these areas are also the areas with the lowest vaccination percentage and disease incidence:

Spoiler

COVID-19-Germany-Cases-per-capita-svg.pn

[Source: By Xplus1 - Case numbers dl-de/by-2-0 "Robert Koch-Institut (RKI)".Map shapes 98% simplified, Mercator projection.Population data dl-de/by-2-0 "Data source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Genesis-Online" as of 2019-12-31., CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=92133538]

 

About the "Freedom!" thing... Fun fact - the worst affected Bundesländer (German states) are the three (and only ones) that call themselves "Freistaaten" (= "free states"): Saxony, Thuringia, and Bavaria. 

 

@Lagie

Thanks - I'm taking all precautions to do that! :)

 

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As of today, Saturday, December 11, 09:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 863 (+33) active cases, while 14 185 (+51)  people are considered to have recovered. 395 (+2) persons sadly died. 1168 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 15 443 (+86) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 228.6 (+8.6) / Incidence for NRW: 284.8 (-0.4).

 

Currently 39 (+4) persons are treated in hospital, with 13 (+1) of them in intensive care, 5 (-1) of them needing artificial respiration.

 

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As of today, Sunday, December 12, 09:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 885 (+22) active cases, while 14 200 (+15)  people are considered to have recovered. 395 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1091 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 15 480 (+37) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 216.6 (-12.0) / Incidence for NRW: 279.6 (-5.2).

 

Currently 36 (-3) persons are treated in hospital, with 11 (-2) of them in intensive care, 5 (+-0) of them needing artificial respiration.

 

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As of today, Monday, December 13, 09:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 785 (-100) active cases, while 14 313 (+113)  people are considered to have recovered. 395 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1091 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 15 494 (+14) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 196.6 (-20.0) / Incidence for NRW: 276.8 (-2.8).

 

Currently 37 (+1) persons are treated in hospital, with 11 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 6 (+1) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 151 149 (1st jab, 71.6%) and 143 417  (2nd jab, 68.0%) and 40 771 (3rd jab, 19.3%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 7, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

Edited by Astreya

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12 hours ago, HeatherMarie said:

I think the whole 'masks not required if you are vaccinated' is ridiculous because of course people will take advantage of that whether they are vaccinated or not and no one is doing anything to check... Anyway

ah  just like my boss.

in PA, a lot of the signs now say masks are recommended no matter what your vaccination status, but they used to say masks were optional if you're fully vaccinated. So my boss  who will never be vaccinated, took that to assume she didn't need to wear a mask anymore, because no one would ask her. *sigh*

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Booster done! :) All the way west, boostered, and back home in just under two hours. I napped (tired from over-exertions yesterday, not the booster), and so far I'm only experiencing arm shot site soreness.

 

And weirdly - and stupidly, to my thinking - they are offering flu shots at the same time. I did not accept that offer. I really don't think mixing shots is a good idea.

Edited by Lagie

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@Lagie congratulations! Yeah, I didn't bundle my flu shot with my booster either, didn't want to put too much stress on my body.

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