Coronavirus Discussion

[Lagie]

2 hours ago, peristeronicAvian said:

Thank you, I appreciate that!! You stay safe, as well! *virtual hugs*

Trying!

 

We had our staff Christmas party today - on the same day I learned just how close Covid has come to my shop.

I missed a bunch of the staff party - ate my food alone on a bench outside my shop... while my shop was being sanitized.  The husbands of two of my shop volunteers have Covid, and another had to be tested today for having been around one of them. Sigh. At any rate, there were too many people at the party; I did not stay long.

 

Our numbers are creeping up again. One single realty company had their staff party on Friday (attendance was compulsory! ) and since then most of the attendees have tested positive.

[Astreya]

@Lagie

Yikes! Some staff party with compulsory attendance? At least you were able to cut yours a bit shorter - I'll keep my fingers crossed that you stay healthy despite the hits coming closer!

 

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As of today, Wednesday, December 22, 10:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 869 (+5) active cases, while 14 981 (+85)  people are considered to have recovered. 400 (+1) persons sadly died. 1586 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 250 (+90) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 257.7 (-17.6) / Incidence for NRW: 220.6 (-11.5).

 

Currently 39 (+3) persons are treated in hospital, with 12 (+1) of them in intensive care, 7 (+-0) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 151 936 (1st jab, 72.0%) and 144 235  (2nd jab, 68.4%) and 56 269 (3rd jab, 26.7%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 14, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

[SomeRandomCorviknight]

think my area needs to go back to constant masks due to the new strain... (it wasn't before, due to low cases. I wore mine in crowded areas anyway, though.)

[Lagie]

On 12/22/2021 at 5:04 AM, Astreya said:

Yikes! Some staff party with compulsory attendance? At least you were able to cut yours a bit shorter - I'll keep my fingers crossed that you stay healthy despite the hits coming closer!

Crazy, right?

Thanks!

We jumped from 20-odd cases per day to 79 in the latest report.

 

5 hours ago, SomeRandomCorviknight said:

think my area needs to go back to constant masks due to the new strain... (it wasn't before, due to low cases. I wore mine in crowded areas anyway, though.)

Stay masked!

Thankfully, they are still the law here (though stooopid people are still having large maskless parties).

[Kestra15]

It is estimated that around 1 in 45 people in the UK have COVID, and our NHS staff sickness due to COVID means we're down 19,000 staff going into Xmas. My hospital is expecting to see a peak of activity around New Year - our city has 996/100,000 cases, translating to over 4,600. There's been at least two more deaths in the last 48hr because I was there for them.

 

 

[Lagie]

^ Those stats make our 140 cases yesterday seem like peanuts, but the day before was 79 and the day before that a mere 26... and the positivity rate has gone from 5.2 to 11.5 to 20 5%! 

That's going to be a rough Christmas, Mr. Kestra. Hang in there. *hugs*

[Astreya]

15 hours ago, SomeRandomCorviknight said:

think my area needs to go back to constant masks due to the new strain...

Here's an interesting study about the efficacy of masks:  https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-maximum-covid-infection-masks.html

 

10 hours ago, Lagie said:

We jumped from 20-odd cases per day to 79 in the latest report.

Here it appears as if the counter measures lower the number of Delta infections, but Omicron is already raring to go - and as soon as we get more Omicron cases, we expect the next wave to rocket up.

 

7 hours ago, Kestra15 said:

It is estimated that around 1 in 45 people in the UK have COVID, and our NHS staff sickness due to COVID means we're down 19,000 staff going into Xmas. My hospital is expecting to see a peak of activity around New Year - our city has 996/100,000 cases, translating to over 4,600. There's been at least two more deaths in the last 48hr because I was there for them.

Yikes, this sounds really bad. I'll send you lots of positive vibes, so that you can hopefully manage to pull through with all the things this drat virus throws at you! *virtual hugs*

 

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As of today, Thursday, December 23, 09:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 894 (+25) active cases, while 15 070 (+89)  people are considered to have recovered. 400 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1714 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 364 (+114) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 256.0 (-1.7) / Incidence for NRW: 219.7 (-0.9).

 

Currently 39 (+-0) persons are treated in hospital, with 13 (+1) of them in intensive care, 7 (+-0) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 154 124 (1st jab, 73.0%) and 146 013  (2nd jab, 69.2%) and 88 892 (3rd jab, 42.1%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 22, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

[AsymDoll13]

Got my test today! Feeling much better, but better to be safe than sorry. Hopefully I'll get the results tomorrow, and it'll all just be an annoying cold. 

[Kestra15]

17 hours ago, Lagie said:

^ Those stats make our 140 cases yesterday seem like peanuts, but the day before was 79 and the day before that a mere 26... and the positivity rate has gone from 5.2 to 11.5 to 20 5%! 

That's going to be a rough Christmas, Mr. Kestra. Hang in there. *hugs*

It's all about proprotionality; our numbers cover over 68 million people. But even then...yeah, it's a lot.

 

Also, if anyone has not seen it before (since you definitely would have heard it mentioned):

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Kestra15

[Astreya]

@AsymDoll13

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you!

 

@Kestra15

Please try to stay safe and sound! *vhugs*

 

As it was just a byline above, I thought it might be a good idea to post the full article that mentions the Göttingen study about the efficacy of masks:

 

Quote

December 3, 2021
Study shows the maximum risks of COVID infection with and without masks

by Max Planck Society

 

 

Three meters are not enough to ensure protection. Even at that distance, it takes less than five minutes for an unvaccinated person standing in the breath of a person with COVID-19 to become infected with almost 100 percent certainty. That's the bad news. The good news is that if both are wearing well-fitting medical or, even better, FFP2 masks, the risk drops dramatically. In a comprehensive study, a team from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organisation in Göttingen has investigated to what extent masks protect under which wearing conditions. In the process, the researchers determined the maximum risk of infection for numerous situations and considered several factors that have not been included in similar studies to date.

 

The Göttingen team was surprised at how great the risk of infection with the coronavirus is. "We would not have thought that at a distance of several meters it would take so little time for the infectious dose to be absorbed from the breath of a virus carrier," says Eberhard Bodenschatz, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organisation. At this distance, the breathing air has already spread in a cone shape in the air; the infectious particles are correspondingly diluted. In addition, the particularly large and thus virus-rich particles fall to the ground after only a short distance through the air. "In our study we found that the risk of infection without wearing masks is enormously high after only a few minutes, even at a distance of three meters, if the infected persons have the high viral load of the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus," says Eberhard Bodenschatz. And such encounters are unavoidable in schools, restaurants, clubs or even outdoors.

 

Well-fitting FFP2 masks reduce the risk at least into the per thousand range

 

As high as the risk of infection is without mouth-nose protection, medical or FFP2 masks protect effectively. The Göttingen study confirms that FFP2 or KN95 masks are particularly effective in filtering infectious particles from the air breathed—especially if they are as tightly sealed as possible at the face. If both the infected and the non-infected person wear well-fitting FFP2 masks, the maximum risk of infection after 20 minutes is hardly more than one per thousand, even at the shortest distance. If their masks fit poorly, the probability of infection increases to about four percent. If both wear well-fitting medical masks, the virus is likely to be transmitted within 20 minutes with a maximum probability of ten percent. The study also confirms the intuitive assumption that for effective protection against infection, in particular the infected person should wear a mask that filters as well as possible and fits tightly to the face.

 

The infection probabilities determined by the Max Planck team indicate the upper limit of the risk in each case. "In daily life, the actual probability of infection is certainly 10 to 100 times smaller," says Eberhard Bodenschatz. This is because the air that flows out of the mask at the edges is diluted, so you don't get all the unfiltered breathing air. But we assumed this because we can't measure for all situations how much breathing air from one mask wearer reaches another person, and because we wanted to calculate the risk as conservatively as possible," Bodenschatz explains. "Under these conditions, if even the largest theoretical risk is small, then you're on the very safe side under real conditions." For the comparative value without the protection of a mask, however, the safety buffer turns out to be much smaller. "For such a situation, we can determine the viral dose inhaled by an unprotected person with fewer assumptions," says Gholamhossein Bagheri, who as a research group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization who is the lead author of the current study.

 

 

'Masks in schools are a very good idea'

 

In their calculations of the risk of infection, the Göttingen team considered a number of factors that had not previously been included in comparable studies. For example, the researchers investigated how a poor fit of the mask weakens the protection and how this can be prevented. "The materials of FFP2 or KN95 masks, but also of some medical masks, filter extremely effectively," says Gholamhossein Bagheri. "The risk of infection is then dominated by the air coming out and going in at the edges of the mask." This happens when the edge of the mask is not close to the face. In elaborate experiments, Bagheri, Bodenschatz and their team measured the size and amount of respiratory particles that flow past the edges of masks that fit differently. "A mask can be excellently adapted to the shape of the face if you bend its metal strap into a rounded W before putting it on," says Eberhard Bodenschatz. "Then the infectious aerosol particles no longer get past the mask, and glasses no longer fog up either."

 

The team also considered that droplets that people spread when they breathe or speak dry while in the air and become lighter. This means that they remain in the air longer but also have an increased virus concentration as equal size droplets directly after release. When inhaled, the opposite happens: the particles take up water again, grow like a drop in the cloud and therefore deposit more easily in the respiratory tract.

 

Although the detailed analysis by the Max Planck researchers in Göttingen shows that tight-fitting FFP2 masks provide 75 times better protection compared to well-fitting surgical masks and that the way a mask is worn makes a huge difference; even medical masks significantly reduce the risk of infection compared to a situation without any mouth-nose protection at all. "That's why it's so important for people to wear a mask during the pandemic," says Gholamhossein Bagheri. And Eberhard Bodenschatz adds, "Our results show once again that mask-wearing in schools and also in general is a very good idea."

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-maximum-covid-infection-masks.html

 

In Germany, the Covid-19 case curve since the beginning of the pandemic looks like this:

The current downward movement only has to do with the Delta variant; the Omicron variant hasn't taken up speed yet, but we expect the Omicron wave to shoot up after Xmas and in the beginning of the new year.

 

In Germany, only the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care is usually published, not the number of those in hospital who don't need ICU care or invasive respiration, but IMO this doesn't look too good, either - particularly as several doctors stated in interviews that 30-50% of the patients who get artificial respiration will invariably die of the disease.

 

 

Source of the ntv graphics:  https://www.n-tv.de/infografik/Coronavirus-aktuelle-Zahlen-Daten-zur-Epidemie-in-Deutschland-Europa-und-der-Welt-article21604983.html

 

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As of today, Friday, December 24, 10:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 953 (+59) active cases, while 15 113 (+43)  people are considered to have recovered. 400 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1756 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 466 (+102) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 261.5 (+5.5) / Incidence for NRW: 209.6 (-10.1).

 

Currently 35 (-4) persons are treated in hospital, with 13 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 6 (-1) of them needing artificial respiration.

 

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As of today, Saturday, December 25, 10:30 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 970 (+17) active cases, while 15 137 (+24)  people are considered to have recovered. 400 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1505 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 507 (+41) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 246.7 (-14.8) / Incidence for NRW: 198.9 (-10.7).

 

Currently 33 (-2) persons are treated in hospital, with 12 (-1) of them in intensive care, 7 (+1) of them needing artificial respiration.

 

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As of today, Sunday, December 26, 10:30 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 1000 (+30) active cases, while 15 160 (+23)  people are considered to have recovered. 400 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1542 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 560 (+53) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 235.2 (-11.5) / Incidence for NRW: 181.9 (-17.0).

 

Currently 32 (-1) persons are treated in hospital, with 13 (+1) of them in intensive care, 8 (+1) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 154 124 (1st jab, 73.0%) and 146 013  (2nd jab, 69.2%) and 88 892 (3rd jab, 42.1%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 22, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

Edited December 26, 2021 by Astreya

[Lagie]

Hmm. They're still saying they 'don't know yet' if Omicron is in the Bahamas.

Given these figures, I'd say that's a yes -

 

Sun, Dec 19th - 23 (no test data)

Mon, Dec 20th - 26 (5.2% positivity rate)

Tues, Dec 21st - 79 (11.5%)

Wed, Dec 22nd - 140 (20.5%)

Thurs, Dec 23rd - 159 (24.1%)

Fri, Dec 24th - 91 (26.4%)

and...

Sat, Dec 25th (the actual holiday!) - 330!  (positivity 35.7%  )

[AsymDoll13]

Forgot to mention that I took a Covid test on Thursday. I managed to get my hands on a take home one too. Both negative! Whew! So I was able to enjoy Christmas yesterday with my parents! And their doggie.

[HeatherMarie]

Thursday, the most recent day I have stats for, we had 127 new cases reported and 1 new death. I've noticed that often the 'new deaths' counted actually happened weeks before and are just now 'counting' for the official Yuma total. Given that and other counting/districting issues, I can't help but wonder how many covid deaths just don't get accurately reported at all. 

 

Got my booster on the 16th, and I read all the guidelines before deciding to get my flu shot over with at the same time. I didn't have any bad side effects or anything, but my arm was super sore for the next three days (couldn't even lay on that side at night like I usually do). That said I do think it may have been more 'how the shot was given' rather than 'two shots in one day', because I barely felt the flu shot at all but the booster *hurt* and the first two doses earlier in the year I barely felt. 

 

I think we've been 'lucky' in simply not socializing very much and not really visiting with anyone, but now the 'people pushing opinions' has started. A church friend brought over dinner for us on Christmas Eve, which was wonderful and so sweet of her. But during the 5-ish minutes she was here she was pushing the topic of coming back to church and going to the Christmas Eve service and such. Covid is here to stay but it's not dangerous if you are vaccinated (which, untrue), wearing a mask is all that's needed to protect yourself in group-settings (again, completely untrue).... I know mom really misses going to church, and while I'm not comfortable attending regularly I really enjoyed the Christmas Eve service a few years ago. But it's just not worth the risk. Especially because, in the past month, *multiple* families from church have tested positive. After attending service. 

[Lagie]

8 hours ago, HeatherMarie said:

I've noticed that often the 'new deaths' counted actually happened weeks before and are just now 'counting' for the official Yuma total.

Our deaths are always from days and sometimes weeks before they're added to the official count. In fact, our deaths section has three columns now, Covid deaths, non-Covid deaths, and deaths under investigation. They usually do say when/if the latter are added to the Covid deaths but you can usually tell from the dates.

 

Our assistant shelter manager has become concerned enough about the numbers and our party-happy young staff that he's considering making a small group of them live (a.k.a. quarantine) at the shelter for a few days so they can't be out and about getting affected. The last thing we need is for a number of the staff to be off sick or quarantining when there are 600+ animals to be fed.

[random_dragon_collector]

1 hour ago, Lagie said:

Our deaths are always from days and sometimes weeks before they're added to the official count. In fact, our deaths section has three columns now, Covid deaths, non-Covid deaths, and deaths under investigation. They usually do say when/if the latter are added to the Covid deaths but you can usually tell from the dates.

 

Our assistant shelter manager has become concerned enough about the numbers and our party-happy young staff that he's considering making a small group of them live (a.k.a. quarantine) at the shelter for a few days so they can't be out and about getting affected. The last thing we need is for a number of the staff to be off sick or quarantining when there are 600+ animals to be fed.

 

Thinking of you and everyone else posting in the last week!  Stay safe, all--virtual hugs and good thoughts for all!

[Astreya]

@Lagie

This really doesn't look too good, particularly the positivity rate in your place.  In Germany, Omicron hasn't started to explode yet, but I expect the numbers to go up any day soon. Our positivity rate is at 18.58% at the moment (down from 21.0% four weeks ago).

 

@AsymDoll13

That's great to read!  

 

My Dad is still in the hospital (heart and kidney problems, nothing Covid-19 related), and every person who wants to visit him has to be vaccinated and show a negative rapid test no older than 24 hours. In the last days I have been tested more often than during all the time before

 

@HeatherMarie

You are definitely doing good to be careful.

 

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As of today, Monday, December 27, 09:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 925 (-75) active cases, while 15 254 (+94)  people are considered to have recovered. 400 (+-0) persons sadly died. 1542 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 579 (+19) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 220.5 (-14.7) / Incidence for NRW: 183.8 (+1.9).

 

Currently 34 (+2) persons are treated in hospital, with 11 (-2) of them in intensive care, 7 (-1) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 154 124 (1st jab, 73.0%) and 146 013  (2nd jab, 69.2%) and 88 892 (3rd jab, 42.1%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 22, 2021).

 

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As of today, Tuesday, December 28, 11:30 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 875 (-50) active cases, while 15 348 (+94)  people are considered to have recovered. 402 (+2) persons sadly died. 1309 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 625 (+46) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 227.8 (+7.1) / Incidence for NRW: 179.6 (+4.4).

 

Currently 31 (-3) persons are treated in hospital, with 8 (-3) of them in intensive care, 6 (-1) of them needing artificial respiration.

 

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As of today, Wednesday, December 29, 10:30 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 847 (-28) active cases, while 15 425 (+77)  people are considered to have recovered. 404 (+2) persons sadly died. 1291 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 676 (+51) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 203.3 (-24.3) / Incidence for NRW: 176.4 (-3.0).

 

Currently 28 (-3) persons are treated in hospital, with 8 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 5 (-1) of them needing artificial respiration.

 

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As of today, Thursday, December 30, 10:00 GMT+1, my home town (population 211 000) has 834 (-13) active cases, while 15 508 (+83)  people are considered to have recovered. 407 (+3) persons sadly died. 1324 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 16 749 (+73) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 183.7 (-19.6) / Incidence for NRW: 177.0 (+0.4).

 

Currently 34 (+6) persons are treated in hospital, with 6 (-2) of them in intensive care, 5 (+-0) of them needing artificial respiration.

There have been 154 513 (1st jab, 73.2%) and 146 387  (2nd jab, 69.4%) and 108 441 (3rd jab, 51.4%) vaccinations so far. (Vaccination data from Dec 29, 2021).

Source: Stadt Oberhausen

Edited December 30, 2021 by Astreya

[purplehaze]

Sadly our positivity rate is going up rapidly. It is currently at 17.58%. We were under 5% around the end of November.

Hospitalization is up. Hospital ICUs in at least 3 of our counties are feeling the pinch again. And deaths are up.

All in all very discouraging.

[Kaini]

The map does not look excellent. Cases have been rapidly going up. Wear your mask, get vaccinated. Pray if you're into that.

 

[PrincessLucy]

Well, on Christmas there were 12 of us here at the house. My son is the only one not vaccinated.

 

Last night, my niece's boyfriend tested positive.

 

Today my nephew and my niece both tested positive.

 

My BIL, niece and nephew had taken tests days ago and they were negative, but the boyfriend was working when they tested, and he didn't test until yesterday. He tested because another nephew noticed he was coughing and convinced him to test, but he always coughs.

 

All 3 positives were vaccinated but were not yet eligible for boosters.

 

My mother has diarrhea. My son has a headache, chills and a scratchy throat.

 

I feel fine, except my food tasted weird, but it was pasta with peas, carrots, peppers, and onions, some basic tomato sauce in a can with american cheese melted on top of it. (Somebody ate my mozzarella cheese.  *Grrr*)  I am not much of a cook. I used the rest of the pasta/veggies to make tuna mac salad that tasted great.

 

I went to over 2 dozen pharmacies today looking for home tests. None available. I ended up at a pharmacy that was doing self-testing and they let me take tests home for my mother and son and bring them back. Results should be back in 24-48 hours or so.

 

My mother was supposed to get her booster today. I got my booster 12 days ago.

[AsymDoll13]

Ack! So many sick people! I hope you guys all get tons of rest. 

 

My little brother found out that two people at work/in his district(? I dunno) are sick with it. And one of the people that he saw at his Christmas thing has it. So a rapid test and PCR test were taken. The rapid came back negative, so... I dunno. Apparently his boss got a bit annoyed about him calling off, but I mean... Um... Covid? 

 

Anyway... Everyone feel better/keep yourselves safe!

[PrincessLucy]

Well, at 8:13 PM someone in one of my Facebook groups posted about home covid tests at my local Walgreens.

 

I saw the post at 8:33, got my jeans on, hunted for my keys and wallet and texted my sister.

 

I got there around 8:45 and it took close to 10 minutes to park.

 

They had hundreds of tests. I got my 4 boxes (the limit) and got in the line that went 3/4ths around the inside of the store. By the time I left my sister wasn't there and started texting my brother-in-law instead of my sister.  He is on line now waiting to pay with the tests in his hand.

 

----------

 

Edited to add: It wouldn't have been such a line, but the state was supposed to give out free tests tomorrow at one of the local parks, but the shipment is still on the west coast of the US. We are on the east coast.

Edited December 30, 2021 by PrincessLucy

[AsymDoll13]

Oh man. I hope it all goes well!

[Kestra15]

Eight hospitals in the UK are setting up surge facilities as we now have over 10,000 hospitalisations, and over 180,000 cases reported yesterday alone. I think five staff have called in sick for my Unit in the last 24hrs.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Kestra15

[Astreya]

@PrincessLucy

I'll keep my fingers crossed that all of your folks will recover ASAP. If you got boostered so recently, you normally should have ample antibodies that should keep the virus well in check.

 

Stay safe all of you up there!

 

In Germany we currently have no idea how many Covid-19 cases we really have as during the holidays there are just not enough people working, doing tests and counting everything properly. Actually the local health offices probably have the closest thing of a correct overview, but it will take a while until they manage to report their stuff to the superordinate offices etc.  Our Federal Health Minister Prof.Dr.Karl Lauterbach estimates that we have 2-3 times more cases than the around 41500 cases the RKI reported for yesterday.

 

@Kestra15

I really, really hope you manage to get through all of this safe and sound! *hugs*

[Kestra15]

We just had eight more call in the last eight hours, so I hope so too!