Holly Stats and Forecasting

[mo7]

Ho ho hello everyone! You may or may not know me, but really all that matters is that I am the keeper of this lovely document:

 

Holly Stats and Information

 

For the past three or so years, a few others and I have been working on gathering data on all of the CB hollies and their owners in order to form a better picture of the state of hollies. While I will neither be releasing the names of holly owners nor their holly information for obvious reasons, I am here to bring you all the statistics and information which might interest you otherwise. Holly owners may post about their own hollies, but please do not share other owner’s information, for reasons which are hopefully obvious.

 

I know there were some people interested in knowing things like what the forecast for how many CB hollies would be bred this year, and people who wanted an easier way to find this link, so I figured this would be a great way to do so and maybe drum up some more interaction on hollies.

 

2g hollies, or even just decently clean lines, are often hard to get a hold of and people tend to think that they cost an arm and a leg (and in some cases they definitely do). Making lineages with them can become unthinkable. I want to make this a place where people can get lineage help for hollies. I know there are a lot of hollies out there which just don’t get bred and that’s really what dries up the market. So let’s work together to breed and trade more.

 

If people are interested I’ll be adding a list of people with hollies they have and are willing to breed/trade during the event, and a rough description of their lineages. That way people can find and get in touch with others who could potentially form lineages together! Another list shall be one for people with hollykin for which they hope to find mates. I will also be making a section for people who simply wish to show off impressive holly lineages.

 

If you have any questions or request for further statistics or graphics please feel free to ask. My data is based on a separate document which I will keep hidden. If you feel you may have a code I do not, please PM me the code for the holly or the holly owner’s name. I try to be as discreet as possible about holly owners, as I know there are some of us to wish to remain out of the public light. Most of my data for each year is compiled after the winter event has ended and enough time has passed for any last minute breedings to have aged to adulthood. Anything compiled before then for a year tends to be less reliable. Data for holly forecasting is compiled based on participation in the Halloween event, and does not take into account individual owner’s willingness or plans to breed, and thus is not 100% accurate. It should more be looked at as a sign of holly owner activity.

Edited November 11, 2016 by mo7

[mo7]

Basic CB Holly Stats

 

CB Holly Breeding Stats

 

CB Holly Owner Activity Based on Preceding Halloween Event Participation

I didn’t start doing an official holly forecast until this year, so this section will be more filled out in coming years.

*2g egg number is based on a 3.4 egg per clutch average as seen in years 2013-2016

 

CB Holly Owner Activity Based on Preceding Halloween Event Participation cont.

2016

 

 

Mates that Have Been Done Before:

Based on CB mates only, there are a handful of nonCB mates. To see a more detailed look at mates, check the document in the first post.

Male Holly Mates

• Albino (1x)
• Aria (19x)
• Black (4x)
• Blacktip (1x)
• Blusang Lindwurm (1x)
• Brightbreasted Wyvern (4x)
• Canopy (1x)
• Carmine Wyvern (1x)
• Electric (1x)
• Falconiform (1x)
• Fever Wyvern (1x)
• Frill (2x)
• Gold (5x)
• Greenwing Spotted (1x)
• Guardian (3x)
• Golden Wyvern (4x)
• Black Marrow (Halloween 10) (1x)
• Harvest (1x)
• Horse (1x)
• Ice (3x)
• Lunar Herald Silver (1x)
• Magi (2x)
• Magma (1x)
• Nebula Red (4x)
• Neotropical (3x)
• Pillow (1x)
• Pink (4x)
• Purple (7x)
• Red (4x)
• Autumn Seasonal (2x)
• Winter Seasonal (11x)
• Silver (2x)
• Skywing (1x)
• Stripe (1x)
• Suncrowned (Yellow Crowned) (1x)
• Terrae (2x)
• Thunder (1x)
• Tsunami (1x)
• Turpentine (1x)
• Rosebud (Val ‘11) (5x)
• White (41x)
• Gaia Xenowyrm (1x)

Female Holly Mates

• Blacktip (1x)
• Blue-Banded (1x)
• Blusang Lindwurm (1x)
• Deep Sea (1x)
• Ember (1x)
• Frill (1x)
• Gold (12x)
• Guardian of Nature (5x)
• Golden Wyvern (3x)
• Black Marrow (Halloween ‘10)(1x)
• Horse (3x)
• Lunar Herald Gold (2x)
• Magma (2x)
• Purple (2x)
• Pyrope Pyralspite (1x)
• Royal Blue (1x)
• Royal Crimson (1x)
• Silver (4x)
• Speckle-Throated (1x)
• Stripe (4x)
• Sunsong Amphiptere (1x)
• Swallowtail (2x)
• Terrae (1x)
• Thunder (1x)
• Sweetling (Val ‘10) (1x)
• Radiant Angel (Val ‘14) (1x)
• White (5x)
• Gaia Xenowyrm (1x)

Edited November 12, 2016 by mo7

[mo7]

All people and dragons listed here have been put here with their permission. If you wish to be on this list please state in a post which holly or hollykin you would like on one of these lists, and which list you’d like them on.

 

 

Hollies People Have for Breeding Purposes:

Caveborn

• mo7 - Female - In season trades arranged until ~2018 but feel free to ask about out of season

2g

• mo7 - Female holly (Christmisunderstanding) x pyrope, from Lotus of Christmisunderstandings, have checker mate
• oilbird - Male holly (DrWho) x blusang

3g

• mo7 - Male holly x Bright breasted wyvern stair from Saint Holly
• cerimonster - 3rd Gen Stairstep x Male Golds (Have mate of choice to go with - 2 male golds)
• cerimonster - 3rd gen EG checker x Pinks (old and new) (No matching mate, but you may have mate of choice
• cerimonster - 3rd gen male holly x Pinks (old and new)

4g

• mo7 - Male holly x Bright breasted wyvern stair from Saint Holly
• cerimonster - 4th gen Alternating SS x Skywings and white Stripes Your mate of choice

5g

• mo7 - White x holly spiral line from Hollyberry

Mixed

• cerimonster - 4th gen EG mixed line
• cerimonster - 5th gen EG

Hollies/Hollykin People Hope to Find Mates for:

[*] cerimonster - 2nd gen female holly x Radiant angel (**Have organized for a 2nd gen radiant angel mate already**)

[*] cerimonster - him either a third gen Bright pink checker ith male hollies or 2nd gen holly x female bright pink and 2nd gen female bright pink x holly.

Holly Lines on Display:

• Holly Hearts Line which is being passed from CB holly owner to CB holly owner

Edited December 25, 2016 by mo7

[Robot Chimera]

Looks very well done, thank you for this!

[cyradis4]

Thank you, mo!

 

Love the data, though its dismal. I sure do hope we get something like the store!

 

Cheers!

C4

[Guillotine]

Thank you for this info, even if it's a bit dismal.

[lastcrazyhorn]

Thank you for this info, even if it's a bit dismal.

Yes, this.

[mo7]

Just a quick update:

So far as I've seen, 13 hollies have been bred for a total of 26 visible eggs. Quite a few have been bred to monarchs.

 

In the last hour I saw 2 hollies that had been bred 14 hours prior, 1 bred 12 hours prior, and one bred 2 hours prior to when I checked. So if you're hunting keep that in mind.

 

I haven't checked all the hollies yet, but I've checked the ones I know where active. This doesn't take into account fogged eggs which I can't see.

 

Edit: A CB holly was just bred to a caligene, it bred 3 eggs. ~1 PM PST

Edited December 20, 2016 by mo7

[andromedae]

Wonderful effort at gathering Holly data Organized, clean and easy to understand. I sincerely hope there's a better chance for more users to gain the possibility of owning more CB or low-gen Hollies.

[mo7]

4:19 PM PST: Alrighty everyone, I just bred and dropped my own holly eggies. So 3 gold x hollies will be hitting the AP in roughly 17 hours if I'm counting correctly.

 

4:38 PM PST: Looks like another holly just bred to a chrono, the eggs are currently at 7 days. There were at least 3. 5 PM PST: within the last 22 minutes it went down to 6d23h, to give you a more accurate time frame.

 

4:49 PST: 3 holly x indigo lunar eggs should be dropping in roughly 4 hours. The eggs were at 6d10h when I checked a moment ago.

 

I am currently in the IRC giving updates as I find them if you'd like faster information.

Edited December 22, 2016 by mo7

[mo7]

Not sure how many people are watching this thread, but I will be holding a lotto in the dragonlotto irc at 5:40 PM PST (5 minutes from now).

 

https://dragcave.net/lineage/ip9iu

https://dragcave.net/lineage/asxdp

https://dragcave.net/lineage/42xYn

 

 

I'll draw 3 numbers, and the winners will get to choose in the order drawn. I don't care what you do with the eggs, be it trade, freeze, or AP, just don't kill it

[mo7]

5:32 PM PST: Just saw a few holly x gold eggs that were at 6d13h, so keep an eye out for those in the AP, as they should drop in about 6 hours.

 

5:38 PM PST: Just saw a few holly x white eggs that were at 6d14h. Again, keep an eye out for those in about 6 hours.

 

After today's check there are 29 hollies which have been bred, for a total of 65 visible 2gs. Keep in mind, I can't see fogged eggs, so that egg count is probably lower than what it actually is. The most accurate data won't be available until 2 weeks after the event ends, but this is a nice snapshot of the state of the hollies.

 

 

 

 

[cerimonster]

Hey mo! Just wanted to give you my lists as well!

 

I have available for breedings:

3rd gen Stairstep x Pinks (Old and new) (Have pink mate of choice to go with)

 

3rd Gen Stairstep x Male Golds (Have mate of choice to go with - 2 male golds)

 

3rd gen EG checker x Pinks (old and new) (No matching mate, but you may have mate of choice

 

4th gen Alternating SS x Skywings and white Stripes Your mate of choice

 

4th gen EG mixed line

 

5th gen EG

 

These are my shorter neater lines, happy to put up others.

 

For mates I need:

2nd gen female holly x Radiant angel (**Have organized for a 2nd gen radiant angel mate already**)

 

And either a third gen Bright pink checker ith male hollies for: him or 2nd gen holly x female bright pink and 2nd gen female bright pink x holly.

 

Thanks

[mo7]

Hey mo! Just wanted to give you my lists as well!

 

I have available for breedings:

3rd gen Stairstep x Pinks (Old and new) (Have pink mate of choice to go with)

 

3rd Gen Stairstep x Male Golds (Have mate of choice to go with - 2 male golds)

 

3rd gen EG checker x Pinks (old and new) (No matching mate, but you may have mate of choice

 

4th gen Alternating SS x Skywings and white Stripes Your mate of choice

 

4th gen EG mixed line

 

5th gen EG

 

These are my shorter neater lines, happy to put up others.

 

For mates I need:

2nd gen female holly x Radiant angel (**Have organized for a 2nd gen radiant angel mate already**)

 

And either a third gen Bright pink checker ith male hollies for: him or 2nd gen holly x female bright pink and 2nd gen female bright pink x holly.

 

Thanks

Alrighty, I added yours to the 3rd post, your first link was the same as the second though, which I assume was unintentional.

 

So after today's check only one more holly was bred, creating a total of 30 hollies and 67 new eggs.

[cerimonster]

Ahh, that was indeed unintentional, my bad.

 

3rd gen male holly x Pinks (old and new)

 

Updated

[mo7]

Added your stuff, ceri.

 

Also, after my search today I found that 35 hollies have been bred, for a total of 84 visible 2gs.

[mo7]

After my check for today, I've seen 38 hollies bred for a total of 93 eggs. Keep in mind the most accurate stuff won't be out until 2 weeks from today (when all of the ones bred today have 100% either died, grown up, or been frozen).

 

At the moment, there is one clutch at 6d, one at 6d9h, and one at 6d22h, for those AP hunting.

Edited December 26, 2016 by mo7

[mo7]

So while we're not quite passed the 14 day mark I did do a count again, and there were still only 38 hollies bred that I can see for a total of 101 2gs. There were at least 6 eggs/hatchlings that died so the real total was more like 107, but I only count the living.

 

Whether or not it was 101 or 107, though, the average eggs per clutch is significantly lower than the past 3 years, when it was 3.4-3.5. This year it was 2.7 (101). Basically, this years breedings were not very lucky. However, the difference between the number of hollies bred in subsequent years was smaller this year. We're getting to a point where the holly owners left are more dedicated, it seems like.

 

The holly which held the title of most prolific in terms of 2g holly offspring maintained its title this year, with 28 living 2g holly offspring. (You know who you are, you awesome breeder you, if you read this anyway). But two other hollies closed the gap and are just 2 2g holly offspring away from tying. We'll see what happens with that next year.

 

Golds were the most common mate this year, with 6 used. Silver lunars, monarchs, and gaia xenos were the next most commonly used, each were used 3 times.

 

As far as I know there are 848 2g offspring now in existence. Not all of those are adults, but most are.

 

If anyone needs help with lineage creation, I'm always willing and happy to help people make pretty holly lineages.

 

I'll be transferring over data sheet info and things soon.