Posted May 9, 2019 (edited) What do y'all think of the theory? Any takers? Maybe I should make a mass breeding thread about it? On a side note, on time-ish post! -- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Wednesday, May 08, 2019, today is Day 9 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 9 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - All information Dark Lumina breeding gathered in one post (possibilities, charts and more): - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Current Calendar: Also, Full Lunar Calendar for several years: Millie_Azure's Lunar Phase/Lunar Herald long term calendar: Link - - - - - - And thanks to the wonder @pinkgothic, we have both a cycler and a Luminae Family Breeding page! On 4/26/2019 at 6:22 PM, pinkgothic said: Here you go! [url=https://leviathan.thorngale.net/lumina-colour.php][img=https://leviathan.thorngale.net/lumina/image.png][/url] {snip} On 4/29/2019 at 10:58 PM, pinkgothic said: Do you think https://leviathan.thorngale.net/lumina-colour.php would be useful to add to the variant toolbox? Depending on the day of the Cirion Lunar Cycle, you will see one of the following images: Spoiler Day 0 - Day 1 - Day 2 - Day 3 - Day 4 - Day 5 - Day 6 - Day 7 - Day 8 - Day 9 - Day10 - Day11 - Day12 - Day13 - Day14 - Day15 - Set (go Right-Down-Left-Up): - - - - - - Shokomon's post with moon phases and comments, for easier copying: Hide contents On 7/13/2017 at 4:58 AM, Shokomon said: "Summary: Based on data gathered, the Luminae Family Breeding Cycle is based on the Cirion Lunar Cycle, where Dark Luminae are most available during the Cirion new moon, and 'Light' Luminae are most available during the Cirion full moon. The ratio of Dark Luminae to Luminae on phases in-between the new and full moons is not entirely certain, but overall, the closer Cirion is to full moon phase, the easier it will be to obtain Luminae, and the closer Cirion is to new moon phase. the easier it will be to obtain Dark Luminae." Shorthand: Luminae are easiest to get during the Cirion Full Moon. Luminae are easier to get during Cirion Gibbous phases, while Dark Luminae are harder to get. Dark Luminae are easier to get during Cirion Crescent phases, while Luminae are harder to get. Dark Luminae are easiest to get during the Cirion New Moon." --- The current text can change to show any of the following: - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 0 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Full Moon. - Also, today is Day 0 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Full Moon. There is a very high probability of catching/breeding Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 1 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 1 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 2 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 2 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 3 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 3 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 4 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 4 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. The probability of catching/breeding Luminae and Dark Luminae is about 50/50 today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 5 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 5 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 6 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 6 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 7 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 7 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 8 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is New Moon. - Also, today is Day 8 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a very high probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 9 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 9 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 10 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 10 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 11 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 11 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 12 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 12 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. The probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae and Luminae is about 50/50 today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 13 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 13 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 14 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 14 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 15 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 15 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 0 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Full Moon. - Also, today is Day 16 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is New Moon. There is a very high probability of catching/breeding Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 1 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 17 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 2 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 18 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 3 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 19 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 4 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 20 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. The probability of catching/breeding Luminae and Dark Luminae is about 50/50 today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 5 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 21 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 6 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 22 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 7 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. - Also, today is Day 23 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 8 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is New Moon. - Also, today is Day 24 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. There is a very high probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 9 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 25 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 10 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 26 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 11 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 27 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 12 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 28 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. The probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae and Luminae is about 50/50 today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 13 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 29 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. There is a slighty higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 14 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 30 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC [DATE], today is Day 15 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 31 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. Edited May 18, 2019 by Shokomon Updating daily breeding icons Share this post Link to post
Posted May 9, 2019 On 5/8/2019 at 3:52 AM, Shokomon said: We could use old data, but do we have enough eggs bred with an hour on a single day to prove it? The idea of ratios changing during the day is interesting. I've checked newer spreadsheet, the most eggs were bred on day 3 of Cirion lunar cycle (128 eggs), while the second day with highest number of eggs is day 4 (76 eggs). When grouped to hours, data for day 3 looks like this: Hour "20" means time frame 20:00 - 20:59 Soo, we have 33 eggs (10 lights vs 23 darks) bred between 14:00-14:59 and 44 (9 lights vs 35 darks) for 17:00-17:59. I have impression it might be a bit too little with time span around 3 hours. From what I've seen for other days it looks like the situation is similar, but with significantly less eggs. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 9, 2019 5 hours ago, Verse said: The idea of ratios changing during the day is interesting. I've checked newer spreadsheet, the most eggs were bred on day 3 of Cirion lunar cycle (128 eggs), while the second day with highest number of eggs is day 4 (76 eggs). When grouped to hours, data for day 3 looks like this: Hour "20" means time frame 20:00 - 20:59 Soo, we have 33 eggs (10 lights vs 23 darks) bred between 14:00-14:59 and 44 (9 lights vs 35 darks) for 17:00-17:59. I have impression it might be a bit too little with time span around 3 hours. From what I've seen for other days it looks like the situation is similar, but with significantly less eggs. You know, I was actually thinking individual days like actual dates; I actually didn't think about using aggregate data for individual Lunar days. That's a lot more effective. You are so smart, Verse! Now we can use this to run some math based on Pinkgothic's theory and study suggestion. Pinkgothic's statement is here: Spoiler On 4/30/2019 at 4:35 PM, pinkgothic said: Just to clarify, I'm not asking you to do the study. I'm just saying if you do want to test if it's a continuous change, that might be a way to go about it. It might even be enough to breed as little as 20 pairs - statistically, 10 pairs should be enough, but you wouldn't be able to get a high certainty out of those attempts, because random is random, and breeding ten pairs with a 90% chance of luminae might still give you all luminae. So I suggested an additional order of magnitude (= 100 pairs) to smooth over that. It's true that a "gradual decrease every second would skew the ratios", but not by an appreciable amount. 12% for 24 hours would mean 0.5% percent drift every hour, less than 0.01% every minute. And even 10% is a lot, which is the difference you'd observe if people were off the mark by two hours for both points of time (~02:00 UTC versus ~22:00 UTC instead of ~00:00 UTC versus ~23:55 UTC). The event would have to be announced ahead of time, yeah. I'd offer to help, but I find luminae so unappealing that I have none on my scroll (well, except one, which I picked up for a breed request ). But again, I'm not asking, just trying to draft up how you might test it if you feel like you'd like to! ❤️ ------- Actually, I just realized I forgot the actual methods portion of the study... Lemme go grab that... Acutal Study Method: Spoiler On 4/30/2019 at 11:39 AM, pinkgothic said: Hmm. For proof, a concerted breeding effort just after 00:00 and one at 23:55 (UTC) on a given day might give you clues. The difference would be around 12 percent: https://leviathan.thorngale.net/lumina-colour.php?time=2019-04-29 20:00 https://leviathan.thorngale.net/lumina-colour.php?time=2019-04-30 19:55 Which should be statistically tangible if all participants taken together breed at least a hundred pairs? (Since the exact percentages depend on what time a day "full" is at its peak, though, I wouldn't recommend trying it on a "full" day (or "new", for that matter). Somewhere in the middle of the transition between full and new, maybe.) If it turns out there's a difference, I'd love a second experiment (or a few) to know when "full" peaks, by the way. Would be a similar approach - breed 100 pairs at 20:00 cave time when the time page switches to "full", then breed 100 pairs at 19:55 cave time. If they're the same, "full" peaks at 08:00 cave time (in the middle), which I'd expect - whereas if one of the two yields sufficiently different numbers, you can use the ratio to (approximately) plot the peak of the triangular curve that describes the moon state (e.g. if it's 4/100 dark luminae at 20:00 and 8/100 dark luminae at 19:55 cave time, peak "full" (the time where you'd have 0/100 dark luminae) would be around 04:00 cave time). So, if Day 3 and Day 4 have the most eggs bred, then to get a more appreciable difference, we should compare the hour with the most eggs on Day 3 to the hour with the most eggs on Day 4, and see if there is a difference. However, if we just want to calculate within a lunar day, we have to look between the 2 different times with the most recorded eggs, and find if the difference matches the estimated difference based on the assumption that ratio drift per day is 1/8 percent or 12.5% OR ~0.52% an hour. - Thanks to you, Verse, we know that the hours with the most eggs are Hour 17 and Hour 14 with 33 eggs (10 lights vs 23 darks) bred between 14:00-14:59 and 44 (9 lights vs 35 darks) for 17:00-17:59, which is 3 hours apart. - So, ratio drift over 3 hours should be about 1.56% - And for Day 3, we should expect the ratio of Lumina and Dark lumina to increase favoring Dark Lumina, so the change is an increase of 1.56%. - So, now if we calculate the difference in percentage of Luminae eggs between hours, we should get a shift of that much. - And if I run numbers we get a difference of 9.85% over 3 hours...which is way too much... I think we need more eggs... Or is my math wrong? Do I need to account for drift by minute? UGH. MATH. I'm not a statistician. I do think more eggs would help though. Or looking at bigger expected difference? @Verse: Could you post something similar for Day 4 and see if we can run a similar experiment between Day 3 and Day 4. @pinkgothic: Am I doing this right? -(Math can be found in spoilers:) Spoiler Ratio Drift in one day: 1/8 = 0.125 = 12.5% Ratio Drift in one hour: 12.5%/(24 hours) = 0.5208333333(3 to inifinity)% per hour Ratio Drift over 3 hours: ~0.52083% * 3 hours = 1.5625% over 3 hours Day 3 @ 14:00-14:59 - 33 eggs (10 lights vs 23 darks) - Percent Lumina: 10/33 = 0.3030(30 to infinity) or ~30.30% - Percent Dark Lumina: 23/33 = 0.6969(69 to infinity) or ~69.70% Day 3 @ 17:00-17:59 - 44 (9 lights vs 35 darks) - Percent Lumina: 9/44 = 0.2045(45 to infinity) or ~20.45% - Percent Dark Lumina: 35/44 = 0.7954(54 to infinity) or ~79.55% Change in Lumina (17:00 -14:00) = ~20.45% - ~30.30 = -~09.85% (decrease by -9.85%) Change in Dark Lumina (17:00-14:00) = ~79.55% - ~69.70%= 09.85 (increase by 9.85%) My head hurts now. Any other ways to analyze this? Share this post Link to post
Posted May 10, 2019 (edited) 14 hours ago, Shokomon said: You know, I was actually thinking individual days like actual dates; I actually didn't think about using aggregate data for individual Lunar days. That's a lot more effective. You are so smart, Verse! Thank you As for math, I will look at it tomorrow, too Chart for day 4: EDIT Some notes I have at this point: - I expected the chart will be more similar to the previous one - there's a few days with number of bred eggs over 70. I think I'll just put a chart to show this better: - @Shokomon, I think we would just need waaay more eggs bred than what we have now to be able to detect differences as low as ~1.5% properly. I'm quite sure breeding another similar sized batch of eggs again, on the same day and hour (for example on day 3, 17:00-17:59) would differ from results we have now much more than 1.5% - and because of above, I agree that good way to check the theory is to breed lots of eggs on possible distant hours on one lunar day. 100 eggs on both hour looks very safe to spot the difference, 50 eggs on both hours still feels like enough - alternatively, we can check what will happend if we breed bunch of eggs just before 8:00 PM and some just after. According to pinkgothic's theory, there wouldn't be much difference between batches, but previous one assumes the ratios will change abruptly to the next value - I'm not a statistician either, I had some classes about it though. But I don't remember much besides the fact it wasn't my favourite subject - - - - - - - - - - - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Thursday, May 9, 2019, today is Day 10 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 10 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. Edited May 10, 2019 by Verse Share this post Link to post
Posted May 11, 2019 (edited) On 5/9/2019 at 8:12 PM, Verse said: Thank you As for math, I will look at it tomorrow, too Chart for day 4: EDIT Some notes I have at this point: - I expected the chart will be more similar to the previous one - there's a few days with number of bred eggs over 70. I think I'll just put a chart to show this better: - @Shokomon, I think we would just need waaay more eggs bred than what we have now to be able to detect differences as low as ~1.5% properly. I'm quite sure breeding another similar sized batch of eggs again, on the same day and hour (for example on day 3, 17:00-17:59) would differ from results we have now much more than 1.5% - and because of above, I agree that good way to check the theory is to breed lots of eggs on possible distant hours on one lunar day. 100 eggs on both hour looks very safe to spot the difference, 50 eggs on both hours still feels like enough - alternatively, we can check what will happend if we breed bunch of eggs just before 8:00 PM and some just after. According to pinkgothic's theory, there wouldn't be much difference between batches, but previous one assumes the ratios will change abruptly to the next value - I'm not a statistician either, I had some classes about it though. But I don't remember much besides the fact it wasn't my favourite subject {snip} Same bro about stats class. Too bad being the medical field requires at least some understanding of it. The smaller change is only really matters for a difference between hours in one single day. The original experiment called for comparing between 8:00 PM EDT/DC on one Lunar Day and 7:55 PM EDT/DC on the following Lunar Day, which close to 12.5% change Though, I think it would be better to have something like 8:00 PM EDT/DC on Day 1 (for example), and 8:00 AM EDT/DC on Day 2, so that it wouldn't land so close to daily mark. - I think the estimated time for this would be like 18.75% change in ratio. Still, getting enough people to breed for it is still the problem... Thank you for making the charts though! I'll test comparing the Day 3 and Day 4 later when my brain feels up for it. On a side note, late post! -- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Friday, May 10, 2019, today is Day 11 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. - Also, today is Day 11 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae than Luminae today. Edited May 14, 2019 by Shokomon Share this post Link to post
Posted May 11, 2019 Time for more math (charts in the Spoiler: Spoiler On 5/9/2019 at 9:42 AM, Verse said: The idea of ratios changing during the day is interesting. I've checked newer spreadsheet, the most eggs were bred on day 3 of Cirion lunar cycle (128 eggs), while the second day with highest number of eggs is day 4 (76 eggs). When grouped to hours, data for day 3 looks like this: Hour "20" means time frame 20:00 - 20:59 Soo, we have 33 eggs (10 lights vs 23 darks) bred between 14:00-14:59 and 44 (9 lights vs 35 darks) for 17:00-17:59. I have impression it might be a bit too little with time span around 3 hours. From what I've seen for other days it looks like the situation is similar, but with significantly less eggs. On 5/9/2019 at 8:12 PM, Verse said: Thank you As for math, I will look at it tomorrow, too Chart for day 4: EDIT Some notes I have at this point: - I expected the chart will be more similar to the previous one - there's a few days with number of bred eggs over 70. I think I'll just put a chart to show this better: - So lets see...The highest number of eggs for Day 3 is 44 (9 Lumina vs 35 Dark Lumina) for 17:00-17:59 - And for Day 4 the highest number of eggs is 46 eggs (2 Lumina vs 44 Dark Lumina) for 19:00-19:59. - This is about 26 hours apart. That is about 13.54% ratio drift. - And since this is a change from Day 3 to Day 4, we should see the ratio increase in favor of Dark Lumina. - After running the numbers, we get a difference of ~16.1% between 17:00 on Day 3 and 19:00 on Day 4 - Which is STILL too much, the difference is far smaller (3% versus 8% in my last calculations) So, yeah, we probably need to breed a bunch of eggs all around the same time, at two different days, and see if the calculated change matches up. Maybe I should set up a mass breed page? Idk. - Math in the Spoiler: Spoiler Ratio Drift in one day (24 hours): 1/8 = 0.125 = 12.5% Ratio Drift in one hour: 12.5%/(24 hours) = 0.5208333333(3 to inifinity)% per hour Ratio Drift over 26 hours: 12.5% + (~0.52083% * 2 hours) = 12.5% + 1.04166(6 to infinity)% = 13.5416(6 to infinity)% Day 4 @ 19:00-19:59 - 46 eggs (2 lights vs 44 darks) - Percent Lumina: 2/46 = ~0.04348 or ~4.35% - Percent Dark Lumina: 44/46 = ~0.95652) or ~95.65% Day 3 @ 17:00-17:59 - 44 (9 lights vs 35 darks) - Percent Lumina: 9/44 = 0.2045(45 to infinity) or ~20.45% - Percent Dark Lumina: 35/44 = 0.7954(54 to infinity) or ~79.55% Change in Lumina (Day 4 - Day 3) = ~4.35% - ~20.45% = -~16.1% (decrease by 16.1%) Change in Dark Lumina (Day 4 - Day 3) = ~95.65% - ~79.55% = ~16.1% (increase by 16.1%) Though, since we have all this prerecorded data, we could do something like this: Find the hour with the most eggs for each day of the cycle Run through and find the difference between 2 days for all the recorded days (ex: the change between day 1 and day 2, then day 1 and day 3) Find the percent change per hour for each interaction Get the average change per hour (to help control the randomness) Compare that average to the proposed 12.5% That's a lot of work though... We could probably get Excel or Google Sheets to calculate it for us...But I'm lazy. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 11, 2019 (edited) @Shokomon, I've made this for charts. There are entries with bred eggs, and table with data needed to make charts as those for days 3 and 4 for all of the other days. Didn't end up with making the rest of the charts though. Edited May 11, 2019 by Verse Share this post Link to post
Posted May 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Verse said: @Shokomon, I've made this for charts. There are entries with bred eggs, and table with data needed to make charts as those for days 3 and 4 for all of the other days. Didn't end up with making the rest of the charts though. Wow! Thank you so much! We could use this. Is it okay if I use it to try out calculations? Also, a bit late, but here! -- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Saturday, May 11, 2019, today is Day 12 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 12 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. The probability of catching/breeding Dark Luminae and Luminae is about 50/50 today. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 12, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, Shokomon said: Wow! Thank you so much! We could use this. Is it okay if I use it to try out calculations? Sure, no problem! It is set to editable (that is what it says to me at least) Edit After double checking I've found some small errors: - entries 978 - 985 (all from day 10) don't have hour reported, but they were included as bred on 00:00 - 00:59 - They are exluded completely now - despite my efforts with taking time change into account properly, I think I included it wrong . I've used current Daylight saving time as basis and adjusted entries from Winter time by subtracting one hour. The more I think about it, the more I'm sure I should ADD one hour. If that's true, over 20 entries from day 3, 14:00 - 14:59 will be moved to 16:00 - 16:59, completely messing math @Shokomon did for day 3. Day 4 seems to be unaffected. I went ahead and changed it already to add an hour to Winter time entries, but I would be glad if someone confirmed it's correct Edited May 12, 2019 by Verse Share this post Link to post
Posted May 12, 2019 (edited) 13 hours ago, Verse said: Sure, no problem! It is set to editable (that is what it says to me at least) Edit After double checking I've found some small errors: - entries 978 - 985 (all from day 10) don't have hour reported, but they were included as bred on 00:00 - 00:59 - They are exluded completely now - despite my efforts with taking time change into account properly, I think I included it wrong . I've used current Daylight saving time as basis and adjusted entries from Winter time by subtracting one hour. The more I think about it, the more I'm sure I should ADD one hour. If that's true, over 20 entries from day 3, 14:00 - 14:59 will be moved to 16:00 - 16:59, completely messing math @Shokomon did for day 3. Day 4 seems to be unaffected. I went ahead and changed it already to add an hour to Winter time entries, but I would be glad if someone confirmed it's correct I checked and it looks like the adjustment you made for daylight savings is correct. I added an Hour with the reverse adjusted to check and left a note for the time change. - (Though, it seems the shifted times would have originally been at Hour 15 as they were at 3 pm... So, why did the 14th hour lose so many entries? I don't understand... And yes, it's editable. So, I made sheets with the tables separate from the rest of the sheet. (Don't delete the original tables though! They are just pulling the data from the originals) Now I need to sit down and make all the calculations... Though, some days have so little on most of their hours that they might not be worth it... Small sample size and all... Edit: So, making an average based on the hourly shift doesn't work. Too many Null (or no eggs born) data points and too few points with high numbers.) Got an average of about 4.71% Edit2: So, just to see if the drift was working on day to day basis, I found the average drift between Lunar Days, and it's exactly 12.5%. NO SERIOUSLY. Go look in the sheets! It's the last sheet labelled "Ratio Drift/Day." - I was using just absolute egg numbers (so absolute lumina eggs divided by absolute number of eggs, because I was just trying to get the shift in general.) - AND IT MATCHES EXACTLY. (like even adding a bunch of post-decmial places doesn't change it.) - Like drift between days don't match the predicted 12.5% (because variable breeding, probability, and all), but the average drift DOES. - I was just thinking it might be like close, but not exact, because that's the nature of these kind of things. -*may be slightly freaking out* Please check my math. I don't want an error making me happiness fake. I should probably do the Dark Lumina version now....but I'm tired. @pinkgothic: COME LOOK. Edited May 12, 2019 by Shokomon Share this post Link to post
Posted May 14, 2019 (edited) Sorry! I forgot to post yesterday! Here are the current and last phases! -- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Monday, May 13, 2019, today is Day 14 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 14 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. -- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Sunday, May 12, 2019, today is Day 13 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 13 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a slightly higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. Edited May 14, 2019 by Shokomon Share this post Link to post
Posted May 15, 2019 Late again, but here it is! -- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Tuesday, May 14, 2019, today is Day 15 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 15 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Crescent. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 16, 2019 - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Wednesday, May 15, 2019, today is Day 0 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Full Moon. - Also, today is Day 16 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is New Moon. There is a very high probability of catching/breeding Luminae today. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 17, 2019 Late, but here? -- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Thursday, May 16, 2019, today is Day 1 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 17 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a much higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. -- @Verse: For the posts we do, I been adding the cycler, but you have been posting the individual images. We should standardized them to do either/or, instead of both. Which would be better? Share this post Link to post
Posted May 17, 2019 8 hours ago, Shokomon said: @Verse: For the posts we do, I been adding the cycler, but you have been posting the individual images. We should standardized them to do either/or, instead of both. Which would be better? Oh Since the cycler you've been posting wasn't a link, I've just assumed it's a separate image Static image shows how cycler looked like on the lunar day update was posted, which is consinstent with other information in that update. Seeing old post informing about day 0 (Cirion is full) with cycler image showing that Cirion is (for example) new might be a bit confusing. On the other hand static images of both moons already act as that, showing phases on day that update was posted. And I would guess that people are more interested in current lunar status than past ones, so that may be irrelevant. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 17, 2019 You could add the link to the image? That way you could keep old image data while pointing to the current and future state. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 17, 2019 On 5/12/2019 at 8:21 PM, Shokomon said: @pinkgothic: COME LOOK. I swear I wasn't ignoring this place on purpose! I turn off notifications sometimes (whenever I want to force myself to stop responding somewhere, really, which happens more often than you'd think ). For future info, you can always reach me via PM, I'll never turn off notifications for that. ❤️ I think the historic data you have is inevitably going to have distorting effects, since so much of it is from the time when Dark Luminae were first introduced, what with Dark Luminae having been favoured by the ratio system initially. For example, out of curiosity, I tried to look at the 19th hour of day 4, which even by the traditional theory should have about a 50/50 mix of Light Luminae and Dark Luminae, but the actual ratio your data reports for that slot is just a bit over 4%. That's a pretty shocking discrepancy! So I wouldn't try to massage anything but daily averages out of what you have so far. ❤️ Also, unfortunately, the exact 12,5% average shouldn't be surprising - your percentages should sum up to a range of 100%, stepping up from 0% to 100% once, and stepping down from 100% to 0% once, meaning your percentages inevitably sum to 200%, and 200% / 16 = 12,5%. So, sadly, that average is not a very exciting result! Statistics are mean like that. Thanks for looking into this so far, though! Share this post Link to post
Posted May 17, 2019 12 hours ago, Verse said: Oh Since the cycler you've been posting wasn't a link, I've just assumed it's a separate image Static image shows how cycler looked like on the lunar day update was posted, which is consinstent with other information in that update. Seeing old post informing about day 0 (Cirion is full) with cycler image showing that Cirion is (for example) new might be a bit confusing. On the other hand static images of both moons already act as that, showing phases on day that update was posted. And I would guess that people are more interested in current lunar status than past ones, so that may be irrelevant. If we are going to for static images, then let me re-post them elsewhere. Right now, they are on photobucket, and it's giving me grief about being over bandwidth limits. Like yea, of course I am. I've had this account before all these stupid rules came in. They're probably going to pull the same thing Imageshack did and delete all my images eventually. Bluh. 4 hours ago, Ruby Eyes said: You could add the link to the image? That way you could keep old image data while pointing to the current and future state. Oh, I thought I had included the link to the Daily Dragon Fix page in my cycler posts. Whoops. Going to need to add that. On a different note, if @dustpuppy is still here, I can make a quick status post for the OP like I have in the DC Moon Watch Thread. 3 minutes ago, pinkgothic said: I swear I wasn't ignoring this place on purpose! I turn off notifications sometimes (whenever I want to force myself to stop responding somewhere, really, which happens more often than you'd think ). For future info, you can always reach me via PM, I'll never turn off notifications for that. ❤️ I think the historic data you have is inevitably going to have distorting effects, since so much of it is from the time when Dark Luminae were first introduced, what with Dark Luminae having been favoured by the ratio system initially. For example, out of curiosity, I tried to look at the 19th hour of day 4, which even by the traditional theory should have about a 50/50 mix of Light Luminae and Dark Luminae, but the actual ratio your data reports for that slot is just a bit over 4%. That's a pretty shocking discrepancy! So I wouldn't try to massage anything but daily averages out of what you have so far. ❤️ Also, unfortunately, the exact 12,5% average shouldn't be surprising - your percentages should sum up to a range of 100%, stepping up from 0% to 100% once, and stepping down from 100% to 0% once, meaning your percentages inevitably sum to 200%, and 200% / 16 = 12,5%. So, sadly, that average is not a very exciting result! Statistics are mean like that. Thanks for looking into this so far, though! So, even though the numbers all have different sources (like some days having more or less total eggs than others), the percentages will make it average out to exactly 12.5% anyway? Aw... So, yeah, mass breeding event will probably need to be done... Do you have a better way to interpret the current data sets we have? Though on that note, the data from this sheet is from the newer spreadsheet, which is farther out from the initial release. But, honestly, I feel like there is always going to be a population distortion effect because there are always going to be more Luminae than Dark Luminae due to Luminae being a much older release. Thus, Dark Luminae are always playing catch up. It's also probably why you see more "No Egg" results on days where the chance for Luminae is high. The daily ratios I got though makes me wonder if the rate actually doesn't change linearly, but changes exponentially, increasing very quickly before leveling off when closer to the peak Luminae/Dark Luminae. (Exponentially isn't quite the right word, but I can't remember the term that describes a quick rise and fall with leveling off at the ends.) Math is hard. (It's all good about the notifications. I just figured you were busy. I need to remember to send you a PM if I got stuff to poke you about.) Share this post Link to post
Posted May 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Shokomon said: The daily ratios I got though makes me wonder if the rate actually doesn't change linearly, but changes exponentially, increasing very quickly before leveling off when closer to the peak Luminae/Dark Luminae. (Exponentially isn't quite the right word, but I can't remember the term that describes a quick rise and fall with leveling off at the ends.) Mmmh, that could definitely also be a possibility. 1 minute ago, Shokomon said: Math is hard. Tell me about it. I was super proud I figured out why the 12,5% wasn't a grand discovery, but that's about as far as my maths goes... and it took me a while to notice, sigh. (Which, honestly, is really embarrassing for me in particular! When I was younger, I won a nation-wide maths competition once. How the mighty have fallen! e_e Now I struggle to do simple divisions in my head. ) (My very mathsy US-American boyfriend rephrased the problem slightly differently, in case it helps you understand: "We took a bunch of differences that sum to 0, took their absolute values, and then averaged those.") 5 minutes ago, Shokomon said: (It's all good about the notifications. I just figured you were busy. I need to remember to send you a PM if I got stuff to poke you about.) Normally, @ing me should absolutely suffice. But yeah, if you notice I don't react, I probably didn't notice. ; I generally try to respond within 24 hours, max 48. Sorry again. ❤️ Share this post Link to post
Posted May 17, 2019 I have some data from breeding my Luminas which includes "no egg/interest" results (they were bred with holidays/other Luminas/rares, so were unable to produce eggs other than Lumina). From total of 1641 breeding attempts I got 259 light Lumina eggs, 599 dark Lumina and 783 no egg. I've started recording my results in March 2017, so it's few months after the release. Share this post Link to post
Posted May 18, 2019 59 minutes ago, Verse said: I have some data from breeding my Luminas which includes "no egg/interest" results (they were bred with holidays/other Luminas/rares, so were unable to produce eggs other than Lumina). From total of 1641 breeding attempts I got 259 light Lumina eggs, 599 dark Lumina and 783 no egg. I've started recording my results in March 2017, so it's few months after the release. Spoiler {Shokomon: Charts spoilered because big.} I wonder if I should start making a note of the likelihood of no egg. Because I remember that whole thing with of how no one was getting eggs on day 31 of the Lunar Cycle...though, I don't know how consistent it is... Have you noticed any changes over time? Like getting more 'no eggs' or less 'no eggs'? Anyway, lemme post this change before I forget again though. --- - Starting at 8:00 PM EDT/DC, Friday, May 17, 2019, today is Day 2 of the Cirion Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waning Gibbous. - Also, today is Day 18 of the Aurax Lunar Cycle. The current Moon Phase is Waxing Crescent. There is a somewhat higher probability of catching/breeding Luminae than Dark Luminae today. {Cycler for now until I upload the images elsewhere. I'm slightly redoing them because I used a lower quality pic of the Lumina egg, and I got a better one.} -- 4 hours ago, pinkgothic said: Mmmh, that could definitely also be a possibility. Tell me about it. I was super proud I figured out why the 12,5% wasn't a grand discovery, but that's about as far as my maths goes... and it took me a while to notice, sigh. (Which, honestly, is really embarrassing for me in particular! When I was younger, I won a nation-wide maths competition once. How the mighty have fallen! e_e Now I struggle to do simple divisions in my head. ) (My very mathsy US-American boyfriend rephrased the problem slightly differently, in case it helps you understand: "We took a bunch of differences that sum to 0, took their absolute values, and then averaged those.") Normally, @ing me should absolutely suffice. But yeah, if you notice I don't react, I probably didn't notice. ; I generally try to respond within 24 hours, max 48. Sorry again. ❤️ *checks that the sum is zero* Huh... I never expected to actually equal zero... which makes logical sense since the change of getting either kind of Luminae loops back and forth, but I figured that real world variation would throw off the numbers a bit like it does for the hourly changes... HUH. It does support the association with Cirion though. Thanks for all your help! I don't really want to sit down and set up a mass breeding event, but who else is gonna do it? Share this post Link to post
Posted May 18, 2019 8 hours ago, Shokomon said: On a different note, if @dustpuppy is still here, I can make a quick status post for the OP like I have in the DC Moon Watch Thread. Still here, I've just been neglecting this thread after we started getting results. Sorry! But I'm still here. 3 hours ago, Shokomon said: I don't really want to sit down and set up a mass breeding event, but who else is gonna do it? I was wondering, would it matter what time in the lunar cycle a mass-breed is done? Share this post Link to post
Posted May 18, 2019 3 hours ago, dustpuppy said: I was wondering, would it matter what time in the lunar cycle a mass-breed is done? If it's a linear change, it would matter only slightly. You'd want to do it across a timespan that has a clear direction, e.g. doing it around full moon or around new moon is a poor idea, since we don't know where the peak and trough of the curve is and that would muddy the water. If it's an exponential change, it would matter a lot, and to get the largest possible discrepancy to test, you'd want to pick a day exactly in the middle between full and new moons. (This is to see if there's a difference over the course of the day - if you instead want to test if it's exponential, depending on the precise distribution of percentages, it may not be the best choice.) Does that help? ❤️ Share this post Link to post
Posted May 18, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, dustpuppy said: Still here, I've just been neglecting this thread after we started getting results. Sorry! But I'm still here. {snip} It's all good. If you want, could you add something like this to the opening post, so that people will know what is dropping and where to find info: -- Phase Change Quick View Aurax's Current Lunar Phase: Cirion's Current Lunar Phase: Current Likelihood of Luminae Family Eggs: New Lumina Breeding Datasheet: Link Old Lumina Breeding Spreadsheet: Link Pinkgothic's Daily Dragon Fix page that shows which Luminae Family Egg is dropping and when it will drop: Link Millie_Azure's long term Valkemare Lunar Cycle calendar: Link includes Lunar Herald Breeding Calendar Information Compilation post: Link:--- 12 hours ago, pinkgothic said: If it's a linear change, it would matter only slightly. You'd want to do it across a timespan that has a clear direction, e.g. doing it around full moon or around new moon is a poor idea, since we don't know where the peak and trough of the curve is and that would muddy the water. If it's an exponential change, it would matter a lot, and to get the largest possible discrepancy to test, you'd want to pick a day exactly in the middle between full and new moons. (This is to see if there's a difference over the course of the day - if you instead want to test if it's exponential, depending on the precise distribution of percentages, it may not be the best choice.) Does that help? ❤️ So, maybe doing it around Day 3 to Day 4 or Day 11 to Day 12 would be best? Because that would be around midway in the line (if linear) or the steepest incline of the curve (if logarithmic)? idk Edited May 18, 2019 by Shokomon Phrasing edit Share this post Link to post
Posted May 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, Shokomon said: So, maybe doing it around Day 3 to Day 4 or Day 11 to Day 12 would be best? Yep! Share this post Link to post
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