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Earthquake Science!

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I bought two more Shumoga from the Market, and then realized that killing with Earthquake takes up my Kill slots... Sooooo, I EQ'd them yesterday.

 

1/8 eggs died (a bred Cantormaris)

 

7/8 hatched and caught. O_O 

Breeds: 2 Cantormaris (Bred), CB Oracle Wyrm, CB Serrati, 2 CB Shumoga (Market-bought), CB Temple Wyrm

Views/UV/Clicks: 2856-3002 / 502-546 / 0-2

Time Remaining: All had about 5 days 14 hours except the 3 Cantormaris (4 days 14 hours)

Crack Stage: S5

Sick? Yes, all were sick because I dropped them all into click sites, went to the mechanic, came back home, made food, and promptly forgot until later the evening.

Incubated? None except the Cantormaris

 

Anyways, cheers and good luck to everyone!

 

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Today I used kill on a 4h left Shumoga with stats 722/150/2 and the result was hatch&catch.

And then I used EQ on 7 Shumoga eggs, 6 around 4d1h and 1 around 5d6h left.  All were s5.

image.png.3dbdc3f6d335a4a36380383c68f0bdda.png

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If I may, I want to present a theory... it is possible for an egg to have too many views for its age to have a good chance of hatching successfully from an EQ.

 

It's not that EQ has a high death rate. Nor is it that EQ is too reliant on RNG. This would barely explain the results I have gotten from consistently following the same method for 27 eggs, only 6 (about 22%) of which have died, and none of which required more than four Greens to hatch.

(The method in question was to fog the egg for its first 24 hours, give it views in the next 12 hours, and EQ right around 5 days 10 hours with S5 cracks, with some variance)

firefox_A1VfiosT6K.png.79d4a943a052ab907bda07c661ab39b6.png

Screenie pulled from my spreadsheet on the matter.

 

This morning on a whim I wanted to see what would happen if I used this same method and added 24 to 36 hours, resulting in having to EQ eggs at time ranges between 4d12h and 4d0h. Which is just about the same ranges I've been seeing when looking back at a lot of the recent "failure" posts on this thread 🤔

firefox_dfohXdtO7m.png.b2f9c1ab9621bc329a3db7a926b2b061.png

640234840_Screenshot(24).png.a0a0d962f1e8a30984425cac006dba35.png

Speaks for itself. Bye bye, slots :^(

 

So are lower-timed eggs doomed? Not necessarily. It seems as long as they don't hit the later stages of cracking, and especially as long as they don't hit the big hole and still continue to gain views afterward (which is what I let happen for my fail-batch above), they will come out fine. Example of a good success with lower times:

On 9/13/2021 at 4:11 PM, Infinis said:

eggs 1 and 3 were unaffected for 2 rounds before finally hatching on round 3. all were caught.

these are the same results as what i got yesterday with 5 other shumoga eggs, with all those eggs in a similar timeframe (all between 4d0 and 4d20) and at s3 cracks (the ones yesterday were all incu'd, and only one was sick at the time of eq). 

been having really good results with this strategy.

 

As such, there seems to be a negative relationship between the age and viewcount of a successfully EQ'd egg - the older an egg is, the less views it needs to be quake-ready, and surpassing that readiness leaves it prone to death or stubbornness.

 

I am not proposing any of this as total fact - you never know with RNG - and maybe even some other folks knew all this long before.

I'm just really excited to explore the behaviors of this function.

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While it’s amazing to know you can have great EQ successes at 5d or so, I wouldn’t draw any conclusions about 4d eggs. You only tried one batch of those so the poor success rate this one time could just be bad luck. Also other people’s reporting is not as consistent as yours so it might be biased (I wouldn’t be surprised if people tend to report more on either triumphs or disasters, compared to middlings results).

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7 minutes ago, Elizabeth Moonstone said:

[...] I wouldn’t draw any conclusions about 4d eggs. You only tried one batch of those so the poor success rate this one time could just be bad luck.

I might have neglected to mention this (which is on me) but I'm still planning to test further on 4d eggs to distinguish between bad luck and consistency. It is true that one attempt alone is not representative of every case. I just thought that the stark difference in success between that one batch and my other previous batches was worth noting.

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Second round of EQ for me. Here's the results.

 

Stats: All s3 cracks, except KaEY9, which reached s4 right before I started to eq. All were between 5-5.5 days left (forgot to check exact time), not incubated, and not sick.

eqstats2.png.30e84098c1fcd3cbc0cc16b552d6da00.png

 

EQ 1:

equake2-1.png.7ae3b022fd777f860b1846d8b0b3fce8.png

 

EQ 2

equake2-2.png.24ec52cab829a7a717a59bf98217cc5b.png

 

EQ 3:

equake2-3.png.0cba32c88d2602ff5e5e93d70f520282.png

 

Got 5/8 this time with only 3 greens. Much better than the 0/8 I got last time.

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That data postulating that eggs are more likely to resist hatching if they're lower-time and have stage 5 holes is interesting. Big holes + far past hatching time has worked extremely well for me for Cantos because they usually survive, but maybe I'll have to change tactics now I'm on to Shumogas.

 

Anyway.

 

Egg #: 1
Time Remaining: 2d 13h

Crack Stage: 5

Sick?: no

Incu?: no 

Result: unaffected

 

 

Egg #: 2
Time Remaining: 2d 13h

Crack Stage: 5

Sick?: no

Incu?: no

Result: unaffected

 

 

Egg #: 3
Time Remaining: 2d 13h

Crack Stage: 5

Sick?: no

Incu?: no

Result: killed

 

 

Egg #: 4
Time Remaining: 3d12h

Crack Stage: 5

Sick?: no

Incu?: no

Result: unaffected

 

 

Egg #: 5
Time Remaining: 3d12 h

Crack Stage: 5

Sick?: no

Incu?: no 

Result: unaffected

 

 

Egg #: 6
Time Remaining: 3d12h

Crack Stage: 5

Sick?: no

Incu?: no

Result: unaffected

 

 

Egg #: 7
Time Remaining: 2d13h

Crack Stage: 5

Sick?: no

Incu?: no 

Result: unaffected

 

 

The 2d13h ones were Shumogas from the cave and the 3d12h ones were Cantos from the Market.

 

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I EQ'd another four Shumoga eggs today. The method I used was pretty much the same as my previous attempt and my results were pretty much the same.

 

Four Shumoga eggs. All CB. All from Alpine.

Time (not that I can imagine it has anything to do with it) circa 2:00 a.m. Cave Time (7:00 a.m. UK)

Influenced them all; but didn't incubate or anything else.

All were 5D 5/6H

Views between 1,834 & 1,901

All had S5 cracks

1st EQ 2 Hatched & caught. 2 Unaffected

2nd EQ 1 hatched - escaped. 1 unaffected

3rd & 4th EQs had not affect

5th EQ Hatched & caught

 

I might try buying a couple of Cantors next and trying them with the same method - of course with Cantors, no hatching is required, so only one EQ is needed.

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