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angelicdragonpuppy

Refusal Rate Statistics Testing

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Hey all!

 

I feel like the native refusal rate is too high, but I'd like some data before I actually make a suggestion to lower it.

 

Would people be willing to help me collect data by breeding ten new pairings, without fertility, and report the number of refusals they get?

 

Current stats: 9% refusal rate (23/270)

Edited by angelicdragonpuppy

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I don't have the time for breeding right now, but I remember when I counted refusals a couple of years ago, the refusal rate I got was also around 10%.

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Sure, I can help out. I'd be pretty interested to see more stats, too.

 

I bred only Two-Headed breeds for this sample:

1 - success, no egg

2 - success, egg produced

3 - refusal

4 - success, egg produced

5 - success, no egg

6 - refusal

7 - refusal

8 - success, egg produced

9 - success, egg produced

10 - success, egg produced

 

3/10 chance of refusal, according to my teeny test.

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Bred some assorted Pygmies, here's what happened:

 

1 - no interest

2 - egg

3 - egg

4 - egg

5 - egg

6 - egg

7 - egg

8 - egg

9 - egg

10 - egg

11 - egg

12 - egg

13 - egg

14 - egg

15 - egg

16 - egg

17 - egg

18 - refusal

19 - no interest

20 - egg

 

Yes, it took me 18 breedings to hit a refusal. So I got 1/20 or 5%. Apparently Pygmies don't like refusing, which is weird because I had a Dark Myst refuse twice in the past few weeks (bad girl!).

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So we are only concerned about the rate of actual refusals and not all the times dragon pairs don’t produce an egg, right?

 

Also for the sake of experimentation, since I haven’t seen it clarified yet, are these numbers with or without fertility bsa?

 

————

Bred ten random new pairs, no fertility used:

1. Egg (Ember & Xol)

2. Egg (Spirit Ward & Ember)

3. Egg (Ember & Royal Crimson)

4. Egg (Mageia & Ember)

5. no interest (Electric & Undine)

6. Egg (Electric & Stratos)

7. Egg (Umbra & Electric)

8. Egg (Geminae & Duotone)

9. Egg (Ke'maro & Zyumorph)

10. Egg (Xol & Daydream)

 

I used some older dragons. Do they have better odds of producing eggs?

Edited by Kigyptnee
Added in what species dragons for each new pair.

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Given that others did Pygmy and Two-Heads. I bred 10 pairs of DC Drakes:

 

1. No interest

2. No egg

3. Egg

4. Egg

5. Egg

6. Egg

7. Egg

8. Egg

9. No interest

10. Egg

 

Edit: Went back and did 10 pairs of regular dragons;

 

1. Egg

2. no egg

3. egg

4. egg

5. egg

6. egg

7. egg

8. no egg

9. no interest

10. egg

 

*No fertility used on any dragons involved

 

Edited by ShorahNagi
Added data

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Thanks for the help all!

 

@Kigyptnee yes no fertility--it's my understanding that fertility makes the refusal rate almost entirely nonexistent. 
 

I'd assume refusal rates are the same across any normal dragon pairing, but if not a varied mix for the stats should help give us a good general number!

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I bred another 10 for the experiment!

  1. Egg. (Iratus Cantormaris x Zyumorph)
  2. No Interest (Bred Stripe x CB Stripe)
  3. Egg. (Equinox x Obidar)
  4. Egg. (Mistra x Itus Cantormaris)
  5. Egg. (Skysilk x Astaarus)
  6. Egg. (Skystrider x Spinel)
  7. REFUSAL (Astaarus x Pharos)
  8. Egg. (Sapo x Mundus Cantormaris)
  9. Egg (Alcedine x Tercorn)
  10. Egg. (Venturis x Cloudplume)

So including last post's breedings, I've gotten 1/20 refusals

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1.] Success, no egg (albino x albino)

2.] Egg (Alcedine Wyvern x Alcedine Wyvern)

3.] Egg (Almerald x Almerald)

4.] Egg (Anagallis x Anagallis)

5.] Egg (Antarean x Antarean)

6.] Egg (Azure Glacewing x Azure Glacewing)

7.] Egg (Balloon x Balloon)

8.] Egg (Black Capped Teimarr x Black Capped Teimarr)

9.] Egg (Black x Black)

10.] Egg (Black Tea x Black Tea)

I did a few random breedings and I got mostly eggs. Not sure if this will be helpful, but in case that it is...

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I did a little breeding of new pairs for you. All commons except for one common x Silver. The last three pairs were 1 drake pair, 1 2-head pair, and 1 pygmy pair. I didn't record breeds, but none of them were Turpentines, which are the only breed I have ever had refuse with fertility.

 

1. egg

2. egg

3. refused

4. egg

5. egg

6.egg

7. egg

8. egg

9. refused

10. no egg

11. egg

12. egg

13. egg

14. no interest

15. refused

16.egg

17. refused

18. no egg

19. no interest

20. egg

 

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Silver x firegem (2 pairs) - both eggs

A third in that line - no egg.

gold x Staterae - refused

Gold x kingcrowne - no egg

floret x lh - egg

Nhio PM - egg

Specklethroat x Aether - egg

Bleeding moon x white - refused

tetra x carina - egg

 

no fertility (even though I am so NICE that some were for a lineage !)

 

So that's a 20% fail rate. Same as purplehaze.

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Avea x Nilia

  1. = Avea
  2. = no interest
  3. = Avea
  4. = Avea
  5. = Nilia
  6. = Avea
  7. = no interest
  8. = Nilia
  9. = Avea
  10. = Avea
  11. = Avea
  12. = Avea
  13. = Nilia
  14. = Avea
  15. = Avea
  16. = Nilia
  17. = Nilia
  18. = Avea
  19. = Avea
  20. = Avea
  21. = Avea

And finally, Avea x Red-Tailed Wyrm

  1. = Avea

Guess I was lucky? Or Avea Pygmies are just nice critters?

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Back again with some more testing. I tested out some rares (Brown Coppers x Magmas) in this set:

 

1 - no egg

2 - egg

3 - no egg

4 - no egg

5 - no egg

6 - no egg

7 - no egg

8 - egg

9 - no egg

10 - refusal

 

And here's another set of Thunders x assorted Sinomorphs:

 

1 - egg

2 - egg

3 - egg

4 - no egg

5 - no egg

6 - no egg

7 - egg

8 - no egg

9 - no egg

10 - egg

Edited by lovecats99

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Thanks all! I'm kinda wondering now if different breeds do have different refusal rates, but I am too lazy to go that in depth. XD

 

We went from 5/60 when I went to bed to 13/160 when I woke up, both of which round to the same 8% refusal rate.

 

Edit: oh, @Ruby Eyes , I am bad at math so only counted the first 20 of your 22 attempts in to make it easier for me to keep adding everything together ;;

Edited by angelicdragonpuppy

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Ok. Tested with new pairs only.

 

Crystalline X Vine = Egg

Ember X Seasonal (Winter) = No Egg

Ember X Sapo = REFUSE

Frill X Falconiform = Egg

Ice Trio X Falconiform = No Interest

Ice Trio X Falconiform = Egg

Fire Trio X Hellfire = Egg

Ridgewing X Nebula = Egg

Ridgewing X Nebula = Egg

Ridgewing X Nebula = Egg

Ridgewing X Nebula = Egg

Royal Blue X Royal Blue = Egg

Sandwaste X Anagallis = Egg

Sapo X Aether = Egg

Seasonal (Autumn) X Seasonal (Summer) = Egg

Shadow Walker X Aeon = No Egg

Skysilk X Albino = Egg

Skywing X Skywing = Egg

Spirit Ward X Azure Glacewing = Egg

Spitfire X Albino = Egg

Split X Split = No Egg

Stone X Albino = Egg

Stone X Balloon = Egg

Storm X Storm = Egg

Storm X Storm = Egg

Storm X Black = Egg

Stripe X Balloon = No Egg

River X Balloon = Egg

River X Balloon = Egg

Sunrise X Balloon = Egg

Sunset X Balloon = Egg

Sunsong X Black = Egg

Sweetling X Black = Egg

Ice Trio X Ice Trio = No Egg

Thunder Trio X Thunder Trio = Egg

Black Tea X Terrae = Egg

Lindwyrm X Duotone = Egg

Water X Black = Egg

Yellow-Crowned X Yellow-Crowned = Egg

Aeon X Nebula = Egg

Azure Glacewing X Azure Glacewing = Egg

Black X Black = No Interest

Black X Black = Egg

Black X Black = No Egg

Black X Black = Egg

Black X Black = Egg

Black X Black = REFUSE

Black X Aeon = Egg

Black X Black = REFUSE

Black Marrow X Black Truffle = Egg

 

3/50

 

I guess I have good luck overall? It's worth noting that when I do have refusals, one of the dragons just refuses anyone. My CB Silver, one of my Ice Trios, and multiple of my CB Xenos are just limits-off. They hate everyone equally except for that one dragon they like. The Ice Trio is the bane of my existence, single-handedly halting my plans time and time again. I hate her.

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On 2/5/2021 at 4:30 PM, angelicdragonpuppy said:

Edit: oh, @Ruby Eyes , I am bad at math so only counted the first 20 of your 22 attempts in to make it easier for me to keep adding everything together ;;

You can add them now. I got some more breedings, with Stripeds:

  1. = Cantormaris
  2. = Cantormaris
  3. = refusal (and a code pair to boot: image.png.a81761f910696b353bfe75ca70135f8c.png)
  4. = Cantormaris
  5. = refusal (z-coded pair)
  6. = refusal (z-coded pair)

At least I can swap the z-code pairs around next time with Fertility XD

  1. = Nobleshield
  2. = Nobleshield

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New pairs only, no rares, but different breeds:

 

10 attempts, 8 eggs, 1 "no interest", 1 "no egg", zero refusals.

 

Breeds that gave eggs: Cantormaris x Aether (2x), CM x Skysilk, Water x Nocturne, Alcedine x Mint, Gemstone x Black Tea, Zyu x Red, Lunar Herald x Nebbie

No interest: CM x Coastal Waverunner

No egg: Frill x Pyralspite

 

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Here are ten of mine:

  1. Skystrider x Aether = Skystrider
  2. Skystrider x Aether = Skystrider
  3. Skystrider x Aether = Skystrider
  4. Skystrider x Aether = Skystrider
  5. Glacewing x Aether = Aether
  6. Boreal x Blacktip = Boreal
  7. Boreal x Blacktip = Boreal
  8. Boreal x Blacktip = refusal
  9. Boreal x Blacktip = Boreal
  10. Blue-Banded x Blacktip = Blue-Banded

FYI, before I started using Fertility, I had an approximate 10% refusal rate; 1709 unique breeding pairs produced 177 refusals. So far this thread looks about the same.

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I did 10 breedings of new pairs.

1. Vine x Green = egg

2. Mariner x Paragulus = refusal

3. Equinox x Cantomaris = egg

4. Sapo x Daydream = egg

5. Spinel x Fire Gem = egg

6. Astaarus x Alcedine = egg

7. Storm x Scimitar = egg

8. Paragulus x Nilia = egg

9. Tatterdrake x Pseudo-drake = egg

10. Kyanite x Avea = egg

 

All in all, 9 eggs and 1 refusal. Maybe later on I'll breed some more.

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10 more: 

Blue-banded x floret - egg

Bluebanded x Ridgewing - egg

Riftwyrm x LH - egg

Riftwyrn x frostbite - egg

Aldecine x vine - egg

Alcedine x luminox - egg

BBW x moonstone - egg

Bluna x frostbite - egg

Black x balloon - refused

sunstone x moonstone - egg

 

10%, better than last batch !

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Thanks everyone for the help! :)

 

The refusal rate has hovered just shy of 10% from the first fifty pairs to our final 270, so I'm going to call it and say that's pretty close to accurate.

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And does that feel like an increase to you, now ?

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7 minutes ago, Fuzzbucket said:

And does that feel like an increase to you, now ?


It feels about what I thought it would be. 10% looks ok on paper but is super annoying in reality so I'll probably pitch that it be lowered.

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Speaking of my CB Silver being a colossal jerk, he refused a Sapo again. 

 

Silver X Sapo = REFUSE

 

4/51

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