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Coronavirus Discussion

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12 minutes ago, KrazyKarp said:

in an entrenched argument like this you just need as many options open as possible, and what works for each student heavily depends on their individual situations

Amen to that. Options are everybody's friend.

 

23 minutes ago, AngelsSin said:

The fact Trump is so gung ho for it should tell everyone it's a huge mistake. IMO.

If only more people realized that. But, seeing how things work in politics, the governours will probably go with opening schools if they're Reps. Maybe not if they're Dems, but then there'll be lawsuits by the citizens, which will then lead to reopening schools anyway. :wallbash:

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Lol @olympe at least the superintendent of schools for the city of Miami-Dade admitted it isn't possible to socially distance at school and with thousands of kids in our state that we know of infected with COVID it's as the article states a fool's errand. I stand by one of my previous statements for extremely limited numbers of kids to be in school but in an outdoor setting with strict distance and other safety measures for instances like @KrazyKarp indicated with parents who need to work and can't say afford daycare with all the apps to find childcare out there I don't see how someone can't find a babysitter, which would limit there child's exposure to one person as opposed to countless? People at school. I don't see how online is riskier for anyone other than for parents who can't afford daycare though, that one baffles me. Believe it or not I'm trying to stimulate people to talk about the issue to come up with better ideas rather than just send them back to school. I don't want ideas to just be shot down I want real alternatives to be discussed since the ones being talked about just don't cut it IMO. Cause people deciding to send their kids to school or the hybrid options still will have a high number of kids exposed to each other and the numerous teachers and staff running the school and the issues with daycares shows just how bad those options are.  And the article I listed in my previous post states just how difficult it will be to protect at school that 5 yr old the parent can't find childcare for.  Maybe some soccer would be good for some outdoor activities, as it keeps them from touching things with their hands which would keep them from needing everyone's hands and items to be disinfected as with other activities. But I just don't see how being indoors with what likely will be large numbers of kids in a small enclosed space is anything but a tragedy waiting to happen. Maybe some desks can be moved outdoors and they can space them out so they aren't indoors in a small space with numerous other people. Something other that what so many are apparently willing to accept for other people's kids. I understand rain or other weather could be a possibility and there are other potential issues with that as well. But to me it's still better than being inside at school which is guaranteed to spread COVID if even one child attending has it. Or the teacher or staff. Please feel free to float other options on this issue. It can then be brought to the officials if they haven't already thought of it.

Also I would love to see the statistics by country of child fatalities per cases of infected maybe by the month? To get a real idea of just how much the numbers could jump if kids are put back in school especially during these spikes. The very limited info on kids concerning COVID and fatalities vs kids infected per country that I can find are all months old.

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2 hours ago, KrazyKarp said:

We all are in perfect agreement there's no perfect solution to the education issue. As most things with covid, it's a very entrenched argument and to each their own. Parents, and students old enough to decide themselves, need to have as many options as possible available to them.

 

These three sentences are the perfect summation of this situation, thank you.

 

I shudder to think about the amount of new cases we're going to see from these Fourth of July celebrations. Florida passed New York's single-day case record this weekend, and a lot of people partied like there was no pandemic. We saw a bad spike after Memorial Day weekend when states re-opened, this has the potential to be far worse.

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12 hours ago, AngelsSin said:

The fact Trump is so gung ho for it should tell everyone it's a huge mistake. IMO.

 

I think Trump is a bad person and a bad president, but this is not a good argument, because he might, by chance or accidentally, be right about something sometime. (Not necessarily with this, just in general.)

 

As for the actual problem with schools: I agree with (I think) everyone... there is no perfect solution. Similar to economy: businesses have to close because otherwise people will die, but people also die because of the consequences of businesses shutting down.

(Is this the Kobayashi Maru test? If so, how do we cheat?)

Let's hope a vaccine will come as soon as possible.

 

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Daily update for Oberhausen, NRW, Germany:

 

As of today, Tuesday, July 7, 09:00 GMT+2,  my home town (population 211 000) has 16 active cases, while 277 people have recovered. All in all there have been 305 people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 4,3.

 

Currently 2 persons are treated in hospitals, none of them in intensive care. 12 persons sadly died. 53 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 14 449 Covid-19 tests in Oberhausen up to Monday, July 6.

 

Source: https://www.oberhausen.de/de/index/rathaus/verwaltung/umwelt-gesundheit-und-mobilitat/gesundheit/aktuelle_informationen/informationen_zum_coronavirus/aktuelle_meldungen.php

 

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44 minutes ago, Confused Cat said:

(Is this the Kobayashi Maru test? If so, how do we cheat?)

Now if only Kirk hadn't retired yet XD

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6 minutes ago, Ruby Eyes said:

Now if only Kirk hadn't retired yet XD

Actually in a pandemic crisis I'd say we need the Doctor. ^^

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All of them, actually. Bones, Crusher, Bashir, and yes, the EMH.

Scan people with a salt shaker, press a textmarker against their neck, done, next!

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58 minutes ago, Confused Cat said:

 

I think Trump is a bad person and a bad president, but this is not a good argument, because he might, by chance or accidentally, be right about something sometime. (Not necessarily with this, just in general.)

 

 

Sadly yes. Just as a stopped clock is right twice a day. (OK once f it's a 24-hour clock...)

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6 minutes ago, Astreya said:

@Ruby Eyes

I didn't mean "a" doctor - I meant THE Doctor! :P

XD I knew that! :D

 

Our numbers have thankfully remained stable but our PM has reclosed the beaches for this weekend's holiday weekend to cut down on people congregating.

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2 hours ago, Astreya said:

I didn't mean "a" doctor - I meant THE Doctor! :P

i'd like Four, Twelve, and Thirteen on this case!  oh, and K9 as well, please. :)

 

my county, i think these numbers are from yesterday:

Total Confirmed Cases: 5,576

Recoveries: 3,912

Deaths: 510 (https://covid19-bucksgis.hub.arcgis.com/)

 

my municipality has:

Active Cases: 69 

Total Cases: 259 

Recovered: 181 

(https://bucksgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Media/index.html?appid=89e673a583fc4f44a8139205346a0ab6)

 

there's been an uptick in cases - 103 in the last 4 days, due to people traveling out of state:  “Over the last four days, 50 of our 103 new cases were infected during out-of-state travel, many from Myrtle Beach, S.C.,” said Health Department Director Dr. David Damsker. “Think twice before you leave for any area of the country that is currently experiencing a high prevalence of COVID-19. (http://www.buckscounty.org/news/2020News/2020/07/07/county-averages-26-new-cases-over-past-4-days-travelers-boost-total)

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Posted (edited)

7 hours ago, Confused Cat said:

 

I think Trump is a bad person and a bad president, but this is not a good argument, because he might, by chance or accidentally, be right about something sometime. (Not necessarily with this, just in general.)

 

As for the actual problem with schools: I agree with (I think) everyone... there is no perfect solution. Similar to economy: businesses have to close because otherwise people will die, but people also die because of the consequences of businesses shutting down.

(Is this the Kobayashi Maru test? If so, how do we cheat?)

Let's hope a vaccine will come as soon as possible.

 

 

Um that wasn't meant to be taken as an end all be all fact.

 

You guys are really taking some of the things I say way too literal or using extreme situational examples.

 

Look I am never gonna agree with putting kids at risk for dying from COVID by putting them in school to me that is an easy answer kids can't catch/spread/die from getting COVID in school if they aren't physically there.

It's the rest of the issues that don't have a simple answer. The issues of education, mental health, socializing that have no easy answer or perfect solution. But I find it insane to put kids in school in the middle of a Pandemic with cases spiking in insane degrees. When adults aren't even taking it seriously. I get other countries are doing better right now but the U.S. Isn't. And the situation in other countries can go from being better to much worse if they aren't careful.

Let's not forget just because kids don't always die doesn't mean they aren't gonna be left with the debilitating issues that we are seeing in adults. They have their whole lives ahead of them but this disease could leave them with issues of their lungs, kidneys, liver, heart, they can end up with CFS for life so even if they don't die it can significantly impact the quality of the life they would live. Is that really fair to the kids to expose them to that?

I'm never gonna agree with that. And I don't understand how anyone can be ok with that either. People need to come up with another solution. With all the smart people in the world am I really seeing everyone throw up their hands in defeat on this issue? That oh well we can't come up with a perfect solution so we are just gonna go ahead and put them at risk cause in life you need to take some risks so let's just send them to school since something needs to be done? Sorry but that mind frame makes me sick. Kids deserve better from us.

 

Also right now I've noticed experts tone down the hopes of a vaccine being the answer to this pandemic. That the antibodies aren't lasting as long as everyone was hoping for. That a vaccine might only be 50% effective. This could end up being something we need to be vaccinated yearly for.

Edited by AngelsSin

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Well, it depends on the overall situation. Let's take my daughter's situation before the summer break. Numbers in my hometown were already pretty low, although they surged around mit-June. The highest number of active cases (known) was 39 for roughly 160 k citizens. School started in June with reduced number of lessons and only half of a class - one class here usually has around 30 plus/minus 5 students. So, half of that. At times that hardly overlap with usual rush hour (good for public transportation). Wearing a mask is mandatory. I don't know how often the teens had to wash their hands, though.

Oh, and of course, there was e-learning involved, including some assignments and, yes, tests.

 

To me, that was an acceptably low risk of infection. (low numbers + safety measures).

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Posted (edited)

Florida has ordered schools to reopen. Here they are talking about in Florida that there will be about 70% of normal attendance and school will reopen next month I believe, we just had the 4th of July so a couple weeks we can expect those number of infections to rise again. Right around when kids will go back to school and classes are normally around 40 plus kids in a class.

Also everyone was talking about how horrible it was that Trump held a rally with no masks, everyone congregating together and people talking loudly, cheering, yelling  everyone was saying it was a super spreader event. And it was condemned yet schools in which similar situations will happen and that's ok and not being condemned? It's hypocrisy to me. I'm glad your country and schools are doing ok and I hope that doesnt change. Germany at least has a smarter leader than we have.

 

There is a new report just out that people's immunity to COVID can wan after just a few weeks.

 

Edited by AngelsSin

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Posted (edited)

@AngelsSin

In Germany in general the buzz word is "Hygienekonzept". There is no real English translation for it yet - it is a combination of "Social distancing, hygiene and sanitation protocols, and safety measures". This means everything (from shops over schools to the Bundesliga and whatever) has to present an exhaustive hygiene measure set that is presented to the (local) health institute(s) to get the green light to open.

 

For schools this Hygienekonzept encompasses the things @olympe already mentioned, even though some of the things are not so easy to set up as the schools here have been underfunded for years, particularly where bathrooms and computers are concerned.

 

That's valid for the COVID Kids Bavaria study as well - the kids are not sent into the schools as if nothing happens, but in smaller groups and with many rules and everything. Thus they are monitoring a possible spread and everything in such an environment here.

 

Plus school openings and everything can be stopped right away if there is a single case, or if the 7-day average per 100 000 persons is too high.

 

E.g. in Oberhausen we currently have 16 active cases of Covid-19 in a 211 000 city and a 7-day average of 4.3. In the US the numbers are vastly higher, of course.

 

 

@trystan

I guess for the pandemic, Nr.Twelve is the best option as he is not a hugging person XD  (Oh yes, and K-9, too. They are currently training dogs to sniff Covid-19 - Here's the English Link)

 

Edited by Astreya

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17 minutes ago, Astreya said:

@trystan

I guess for the pandemic, Nr.Twelve is the best option as he is no a hugging person XD  (Oh yes, and K-9, too. They are currently training dogs to sniff Covid-19)

XD  ooh good point about the no hugging.  and i'm sure we could get K-9 to sniff out covid as well. :D

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Posted (edited)

With Florida the cities can't even do contract tracing only the state has that right and we have Governor Ron DeSantis who is a Trump crony who is steadfastly refusing to deal with the reality here and that's just my state. Things are only gonna get worse here with little measures in place. And clearly a lack of leadership. Miami which is a hotspot can't trace those who already tested positive because the mayor he doesn't have the right to do so and our governor when asked not even a few hrs ago skirted the issues and essentially avoided answering the question on why he won't give the cities the right to do it themselves. He avoided many questions and issues. The U.S. is failing to be smart and handle the pressing issues with this pandemic. Perversely he was saying how people were coming in for things like accidents and other things and 30-40% of those were testing positive and asymptomatic. Our hospitals are becoming overwhelmed. Supplies are starting to run low again. But schools must open? When we are becoming the next epicenter of the pandemic?

Also testing here is becoming a problem. Here in a lot of cases you have to wait a week to get a test and labs are becoming overwhelmed and sometimes you have to wait a week to get the results so two weeks of waiting.

 

I wouldn't trust the U.S. to do what other countries are doing with kids and schools we have no good leadership here at least right now hopefully Biden will be elected and he will I have no doubt put things in order here but that means waiting till next year.

 

And then to top things off wearing a mask has become polarized and unpopular because of Trump.

The U.S. just can't get it right which is why I'm so worried especially when it comes to the kids. Who have no choice but to do what the adults tell them.

Edited by AngelsSin

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Posted (edited)

@AngelsSin

I think the centralised management is quite a bit of a problem then. While the US is a Federal State like Germany, I have the impression that here in comparison the "Kreise" (municipalities) and "kreisfreie Städte" (cities that don't belong to a municipality) have quite some more autonomy in health questions as each of these 'constituencies' has their own Gesundheitsamt (local health office) that has the authority for its district (even though it of course belongs to a state authority which in turn belongs to the federal authority).

 

For those who can understand German - this press conference of the officials in Gütersloh explains in great detail how they managed to contain the huge local outbreak there that took part in the Tönnies meat procressing plant about two weeks ago:

 

Edited by Astreya

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1 hour ago, AngelsSin said:

Germany at least has a smarter leader than we have.

No offense, but I dare say that that's true for most, if not almost all countries. One of the notable exceptions being Brazil.

 

I think Trump is seriously trying to go the way of herd immunity. Get as many people as possible infected as quickly as possible, and (hopefully) the pandemic will be over in relatively short order. This means a quicker restart for the economy, which is all that Trump is worried about. (Well, economy and his re-election.) After all, according to Trumps most recent opinion (July 4th, I think), Covid is completely harmless in 99% of all cases.

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Posted (edited)

36 minutes ago, Astreya said:

@trystan

I just added the link in English above - here it is, too: https://www.dw.com/en/dogs-can-sniff-out-covid-19/a-53582252

that's awesome!

 

11 minutes ago, olympe said:

I think Trump is seriously trying to go the way of herd immunity. Get as many people as possible infected as quickly as possible, and (hopefully) the pandemic will be over in relatively short order.

pretty sure that's not the way to do this, really.

 

i made a kinda creepy Wear a Mask PSA yesterday:

Spoiler

GAyOOWA.jpg

 

 

Edited by trystan

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Talking about Brazil... Mr.Bolsonaro has tested positive for Covid-19 now, and he is still behaving irresponsibly, if not outright criminal:

Quote

The Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, has announced live on television he has tested positive for coronavirus.

“It came back positive,” a mask-wearing Bolsonaro told a hand-picked group of reporters on Tuesday lunchtime outside his official residence.

(...)

After announcing his positive result on Tuesday, Bolsonaro stepped back from the reporters he was addressing, removed his mask and, grinning, said: “Just look at my face. I’m well, fine, thank God … Thanks to all those who have been praying for me … and to those who criticise me, no problem, carry on criticising as much as you like.”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/jair-bolsonaro-coronavirus-positive-test-brazil-president

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Posted (edited)

@AngelsSin

The big problem is that many of the Trump cult fanatics take Mr.Trump's word for gospel as they believe him that everything else is fake news. *smh*

 

And Ms deVos is obviously another of the Trump sycophants who was elevated in her office by him as she is otherwise totally unqualified and thus she will do everything he tells her to do.

 

Edited by Astreya

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Posted (edited)

Quote

The Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, has announced live on television he has tested positive for coronavirus.

“It came back positive,” a mask-wearing Bolsonaro told a hand-picked group of reporters on Tuesday lunchtime outside his official residence.

(...)

After announcing his positive result on Tuesday, Bolsonaro stepped back from the reporters he was addressing, removed his mask and, grinning, said: “Just look at my face. I’m well, fine, thank God … Thanks to all those who have been praying for me … and to those who criticise me, no problem, carry on criticising as much as you like.”

To me, this sounds more like a publicity stunt than anything. SMH. 66 k (and counting) Brazilians were not so lucky.

 

1 hour ago, AngelsSin said:

Ugh, Trump is compounding his bad statements by claiming that the U.S. has the lowest mortality rate in the world, which is ridiculously false.

How did he come up with this one? I just did the maths (or let excel do it, to be honest), and this is the result for mortality rates when you only take cases into account that already had an outcome. (Source for the raw numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (for easy copy&paste)

            Country                Fatality Rate (in percent)

World 7.39
USA 9.07
Brazil 5.81
India 4.32
Russia 2.21
Peru 5.17
Chile 2.34
Spain ???
UK ???
Mexico 16.31
Iran 5.45
Italy 15.33
Pakistan 3.46
Saudi Arabia 1.29
Turkey 2.76
South Africa 3.27
Germany 4.74
France 27.82
Bangladesh 2.68
Colombia 7.71
Canada 11.09

 

Both Spain and UK didn't give out the numbers of recovered nor active cases, so I cannot give you a result from either nation. However, Spain has managed to flatten the curve quite successfully, and my guess is that (at least) 90% of all people infected are through with it. If you want to go with it and also estimate that the death toll will rise by the number of critical cases, we'll get a number a little below 10%.

 

Edited by olympe

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