Coronavirus Discussion

[jengatower]

the fact that most states in the US barely have restrictions anymore while only a select few (like California) are p much in lockdown still is mind blowing

makes me kinda jealous but also mad

Edited July 19, 2021 by jengatower

[Astreya]

As of today, some of the Corona restrictions have been tightened again in my home town as we just reached the 10th consecutive day with a 7-day-incidence over 10.

 

There are fears that due to the severe floodings in Germany (and also in Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, and Switzerland) and the numerous people going there to help, but who thus just don't really think about the anti-covid measures while they try to save people and help cleaning up the mess everywhere, the virus will spread further again. Even though my city wasn't directly affected, we currently can't drink the water from the taps here as the water comes from neighbouring Mülheim/Ruhr, which got affected and the water works were partly submerged and thus contaminated.

 

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As of today, Tuesday, July 20, 12:30 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 66 (-3) active cases, while 10 655 (+2)  people are considered to have recovered. 368 (+2) persons sadly died. 134 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 11 089 (+1) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 13.3 (+-0.0).

 

Currently 3 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 124 264 (1st jab, 58.9%) and 97 941 (2nd jab, 46.4%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

[Lagie]

8 hours ago, Astreya said:

There are fears that due to the severe floodings in Germany (and also in Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, and Switzerland) and the numerous people going there to help, but who thus just don't really think about the anti-covid measures while they try to save people and help cleaning up the mess everywhere, the virus will spread further again. Even though my city wasn't directly affected, we currently can't drink the water from the taps here as the water comes from neighbouring Mülheim/Ruhr, which got affected and the water works were partly submerged and thus contaminated.

Stay safe over there!  (From floods and viruses!)

 

We're up to15 people in the ICU (from2 barely a week ago).  Apparently the government is considering further lockdowns as our numbers don't want to go down.

[Astreya]

@Lagie

That doesn't sound good (rise of people in the ICU).

 

Fortunately, in Germany the ICUs are not under renewed pressure yet, but with the rise of the Delta variant, one never knows:

(Black line - ICU in general, red line - ICU and artificial respiration, [Source]

 

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As of today, Wednesday, July 21, 11:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 68 (+2) active cases, while 10 657 (+2)  people are considered to have recovered. 368 (+-0) persons sadly died. 167 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 11 093 (+4) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 13.8 (+0.5).

 

Currently 3 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 124 632 (1st jab, 59.1%) and 98 928 (2nd jab, 46.9%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Thursday, July 22, 10:30 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 73 (+5) active cases, while 10 658 (+1)  people are considered to have recovered. 369 (+1) persons sadly died. 176 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 11 100 (+7) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 14.7 (+0.9).

 

Currently 3 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 125 096 (1st jab, 59.3%) and 99 743 (2nd jab, 47.3%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

Edited July 22, 2021 by Astreya

[Lagie]

20 hours ago, Astreya said:

@Lagie

That doesn't sound good (rise of people in the ICU).

It's not. And now the hospital has gone back to emergency measures (no elective surgeries, no visitors, actual emergencies only).

 

Stay safe, everyone!

[Astreya]

@Lagie

That's not good. I really hope you will stay safe!

 

Yesterday, the Gesundheitsamt (=local health office) Oberhausen checked their data versus the data of the Landeszentrum Gesundheit NRW (=state health office of NRW), and they had to correct some of the numbers, hence the numbers of recovered and infected persons since beginning of the pandemic is lower today than it was yesterday.

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As of today, Friday, July 23, 09:30 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 68 (-5) active cases, while 10 547 (-111)  people are considered to have recovered. 369 (+-0) persons sadly died. 166 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 984 (-116) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 14.7 (+-0.0).

 

Currently 4 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 125 247 (1st jab, 59.4%) and 99 791 (2nd jab, 47.3%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Astreya

[Kestra15]

So far all our ICU admissions/potential admissions are all unvaccinated. It's only a snapshot and counts as anecdotal evidence for now, but it's something to give us a little hope.

 

[Astreya]

Sadly the speed of the vaccination campaign in Germany is slowing down as the currently comparatively low numbers here make people feel too safe and that the pandemic is under control. Of course the result is that the numbers are creeping up again. It's still comparatively lower than in many other countries, but this can change fast as countries like Spain or the UK have shown, so one should really try to nip this in the bud.

 

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As of today, Saturday, July 24, 10:30 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 71 (+3) active cases, while 10 552 (+5)  people are considered to have recovered. 369 (+-0) persons sadly died. 158 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 992 (+8) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 15.2 (+0.5).

 

Currently 4 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 126 100 (1st jab, 59.8%) and 99 838 (2nd jab, 47.3%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Astreya

[Lagie]

2 hours ago, Astreya said:

Sadly the speed of the vaccination campaign in Germany is slowing down as the currently comparatively low numbers here make people feel too safe and that the pandemic is under control.

Eeps. Stay safe!

We actually ran out of vaccines and can only second vaccinate until the next lot arrives.

 

Numbers still high - 95, 67, 110 - 13,958 in total, and 6 more deaths = 280.

[Kestra15]

We're on the verge of flipping one of our ICU pods to make it a full COVID-19 bay again. Unsurprisingly no-one actually wants to - we're tired of this now. Really tired.

[Astreya]

@Lagie

That's truly worrisome! I hope you will soon get additional batches of the vaccines ASAP! 

 

 

@Kestra15

I really hope that things will not as bad for you as one would expect with all the people getting more and more careless! *virtual hugs*

 

 

Looks like in Oberhausen, the GPs were a bit lazy to report their vaccination numbers again and they were only now added in bulk.

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As of today, Sunday, July 25, 10:30 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 70 (-1) active cases, while 10 554 (+2)  people are considered to have recovered. 369 (+-0) persons sadly died. 114 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 993 (+1) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 10.9 (-4.3).

 

Currently 3 (-1) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 133 747 (1st jab, 63.4%) and 101 592  (2nd jab, 48.1%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

[Kestra15]

Vielen Dank, Astreya. 

[Lagie]

3 hours ago, Astreya said:

That's truly worrisome! I hope you will soon get additional batches of the vaccines ASAP! 

Me, too!

 

100 cases Friday, from a mere 237 tests = 14,058. Two additional deaths takes that total to 282.

[Astreya]

@Lagie

100 from 237 - that's a really alarming positivity rate!

 

Our quota of positive tests is 1.64% tight now, but two weeks ago it was as low as 0.8%, so the rate of new infections is rising here, too. The problem is that one really has to nip these things in the bud, but unfortunately people (and politicians who want to be elected this autumn) mostly only see the absolute numbers, compare them to other countries and then call for an easing of the restrictions.

[Lagie]

I know, right?

And it turns out, from a newspaper article I've just read, that statistic only includes PCR tests, not the rapid tests (I think I have that right... ?) so the 15 of 75 tests in one small community aren't included in that count.

The PM will be speaking to the nation on Wednesday. Many of us are anticipating renewed lockdowns.

 

Saturday was 62 cases from 371 tests, new total 14,120 cases. No additional deaths.

100 people hospitalized, 10 in the ICU.

[Astreya]

Here the stats are only lab-conducted PCR tests, too. The problem with rapid or lateral flow tests is that they are notoriously imprecise. (Here you can see the sensitivity and specificity data of quite some of the rapid tests: https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf).

 

Additionally, the tests are also dependent on the people who administer them, and at least in Germany, some TV reporters who investigated the mostly private rapid test providers found that in some cases, the testers didn't do it properly or even worse just gave people negative results when they were administered for some party locations or night clubs.

 

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As of today, Monday, July 26, 09:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 71 (+1) active cases, while 10 554 (+-0)  people are considered to have recovered. 369 (+-0) persons sadly died. 107 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 994 (+1) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 10.9 (+-0.0).

 

Currently 3 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 133 876 (1st jab, 63.4%) and 101 633  (2nd jab, 48.2%) vaccinations so far.

 

--------------

As of today, Tuesday, July 27, 09:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 61 (-10) active cases, while 10 565 (+11)  people are considered to have recovered. 371 (+2) persons sadly died. 109 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 997 (+3) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 12.3 (+1.4).

 

Currently 3 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with no one in intensive care.

There have been 133 876 (1st jab, 63.4%) and 101 633  (2nd jab, 48.2%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

Edited July 27, 2021 by Astreya

[Nalyua]

The hubby is getting his second shot tomorrow. His appointment from the centre was like in the middle of our vacation and they kept telling him yes he can get a different one but not at this moment and please call again next week, but a GP agreed to take him on for his short, a friend of us works there and she said that they have trouble finding people on short notice to fill up all the available appointments for a day so she asked if she could call a friend who is looking for an appointment for his second shot.

 

Woot.

 

By the time we start our vacation he will even almost have completed the 2 week wait for full protection, which is awesome.

[Kestra15]

So we're opening up a proper COVID-19 Pod tonight, giving us 12 (or 24 in dire straits) dedicated ICU beds. This is not good.

 

All of our admissions are currently unvaccinated.

 

[Astiana]

I've been following this thread - just never had the nerve to comment before. 

Lagie - those numbers are very bad - I hope your islands are soon able to get the number of vaccination doses you need for y'all to be safe. 

 

Astreya - those numbers aren't bad - I hope that small increase doesn't accelerate into larger numbers. 

Reluctant inmate of the ungreat British experiment here - I know hospitalisations have increased again today, which doesn't bode well. Kestra - that's awful news about the Covid Pod - I sincerely hope you will not need 24 beds.
I know how hard you and your colleagues are/have been working, and the pressure you're all still under - I really hope you and yours get the R & R you need soon. Stay safe and thank you for all that you do.

[Lagie]

2 hours ago, Kestra15 said:

So we're opening up a proper COVID-19 Pod tonight, giving us 12 (or 24 in dire straits) dedicated ICU beds. This is not good.

 

All of our admissions are currently unvaccinated.

 

Dang. Stay safe!

 

133 cases on Sunday, 75 Monday, for a new total of 14,328. One more death takes that total to 285.

 

38 minutes ago, Astiana said:

Reluctant inmate of the ungreat British experiment here -

You stay safe, too!

[Astreya]

@Nalyua

Yay for full vaccination!

 

@Kestra15

It's the same in other areas where hospitalisation rise, too - the majority of those who suffer badly are all unvaccinated.

This Guardian article is very telling: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/covid-patients-tell-of-regrets-over-refusing-jab-vaccine-intensive-care

*sending you good wishes and positive energy to try and help you a bit through the hard times*

 

@Astiana

The problem is that with lower numbers people (and politicians who want to get elected in Autumn) take things far too lightly. If you look at this chart, you can see how fast things exploded both last Autumn after being really low and then again in Spring:

 

Source: https://www.n-tv.de/infografik/Coronavirus-aktuelle-Zahlen-Daten-zur-Epidemie-in-Deutschland-Europa-und-der-Welt-article21604983.html

 

 

Considering the fact that in the UK the numbers were pretty good (actually much better than in Germany between April and June)  not too long ago, one really has to be careful to nip things in the bud!

 

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

[Kestra15]

Thank you for the support.

 

I need to keep reminding myself that I managed to work the first two waves without getting it, so my skills and drills are good enough to avoid infection. I don't even get norovirus when it goes around so my infection control skills must work. And I have full PPE, and now fully vaccinated too.

 

Then again we have lost colleagues at work, and some colleagues are still off with Long COVID from the first time around. And there's the high mortality rate we've already witnessed (the first peak had a mortality rate of 50% if you were on the ventilator, rising to 80% if you then had kidney failure). Running out of body bags and space in the morgue... There's a reason we didn't want it to get this far again.

Edited July 28, 2021 by Kestra15

[Astreya]

@Kestra15

I really admire your dedication and hard work! Without the nurses and doctors, things would be much direr! And considering this, it is a screaming injustice that you still don't really get paid properly. In Germany, the wages for nurses and carers are much too low compared for the work they do, too. And when I read that in the UK there was originally a proposal to give you a 1% pay rise, I thought this was more than outrageous! The current proposal are not exactly better either.

 

And this doesn't take into account the risks you have to take and the colleagues that you have lost. I hope you will continue to stay safe. And don't hesitate to look for psychological help when things become too dire - some things just can't be shouldered on one's own. *more virtual hugs*

 

 

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As of today, Wednesday, July 28, 09:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 54 (-7) active cases, while 10 577 (+12)  people are considered to have recovered. 371 (+-0) persons sadly died. 127 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 11 002 (+5) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 12.8 (+0.5).

 

Currently 4 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with one of them in intensive care.

There have been 133 876 (1st jab, 63.4%) and 101 633  (2nd jab, 48.2%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

Edited July 28, 2021 by Astreya

[Astiana]

Argh, started writing last night and then basically collapsed in a heap ... and a lot happened since I posted!
 

Astreya - agreed - so much - you're right that people get complacent - it only takes one case and whoosh! Exponential growth happens! Things turn around so fast (like this wave we're currently going through here in the UK). 
 

(I unfortunately have a LOT to say about this 😔) The issues here in the UK are several fold - a lot of cases were/are in school age (up to age 18) people - who haven't been vaccinated (it's been approved but other decisions are ... very slow to be made) - it's now the summer break and testing in schools is finished.

Secondly, the football, tennis and I *think* horse racing events meant a lot more social mixing, with alcohol involved (they were so called "pilot" events); add in travel, plus a crucial test and trace error at a crucial point and you have perfect conditions for Sars-CoV2 to spread - especially as Delta is so transmissible. Finally, Delta arrived here because of loose border controls (a totally avoidable political decision). 

 

We also have yet to see what the data will be like from the 19th ""reopening"" and motor racing at Silverstone - we've had 7 days of falling cases so far but testing has decreased, and hospitalisations are trending upwards, albeit from a fairly low but not at all great base.

 

That all said: cases rose very quickly and it's possible the mathematical modellers really put the wind up people by saying that they thought that we could be seeing an average of 100,000 cases per day and at worst 200,000 cases per day over the summer. It **seems** people have been sensible so far ... but *for how much longer* (gets extremely nervous).

As Kestra so amply demonstrates - the situation is still unnecessarily dire for all the medics who've been in this thing the whole way through (which I can only begin to understand and imagine the toll it's taking). 
 

That graphic is poignant and very powerful, Kestra - I really hope you DON'T have to do this all day, every day for the long term;  Astreya is right - I couldn't agree more and I couldn't have said it better - especially the last part. 
 

Thanks Lagie - I appreciate that - this is one wild ride and please can we get off now, lol!

Apologies for the wall of text everyone!

[Kestra15]

Thank you for the support guys.