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trystan

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It's great to see that more and more people here get their vaccinations!

 

@Confused Cat

Or with a little luck you might have very few side-effects or even none! *fingers crossed*

 

Here the numbers fortunately continue to go down, and what's encouraging is that in the whole of Germany the positive number also went down for the 5th week in a row. Right now we are at 5.82% from 1.196 million PCR tests (the week before it was 8.26% from 1.088 million PCR tests).

 

pos.png

 

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As of today, Thursday, May 27, 10:15 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 182 (-27) active cases, while 10 344 (+30)  people are considered to have recovered. 345 (+-0) persons sadly died. 549 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 871 (+3) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 33.2 (-18.0).

 

Currently 24 (-1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 7 (-1) of them in intensive care, 7 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 90 427 (1st jab, 42.9%) and 27 864 (2nd jab, 13.2%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Friday, May 28, 12:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 184 (+2) active cases, while 10 351 (+7)  people are considered to have recovered. 346 (+1) persons sadly died. 522 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 881 (+10) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 32.7 (-0.5).

 

Currently 23 (-1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 7 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 7 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 92 949 (1st jab, 44.1%) and 30 336 (2nd jab, 14.4%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Saturday, May 29, 09:45 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 173 (-11) active cases, while 10 371 (+20)  people are considered to have recovered. 347 (+1) persons sadly died. 474 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 891 (+10) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 30.4 (-2.3).

 

Currently 25 (+2) persons are treated in hospitals, with 7 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 6 (-1) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 93 417 (1st jab, 44.3%) and 30 875 (2nd jab, 14.6%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Sunday, May 30, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 179 (+6) active cases, while 10 373 (+2)  people are considered to have recovered. 347 (+-0) persons sadly died. 442 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 899 (+8) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 28.4 (-2.0).

 

Currently 20 (-5) persons are treated in hospitals, with 6 (-1) of them in intensive care, 5 (-1) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 93 882 (1st jab, 44.5%) and 31 311 (2nd jab, 14.8%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Monday, May 31, 12:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 175 (-4) active cases, while 10 379 (+6)  people are considered to have recovered. 347 (+-0) persons sadly died. 431 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 901 (+2) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 24.7 (-3.7).

 

Currently 18 (-2) persons are treated in hospitals, with 6 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 5 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 94 369 (1st jab, 44.7%) and 31 814 (2nd jab, 15.1%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

Edited by Astreya

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Cleared out my COVID-19 folder in my emails the other day -  first time I've done so since the pandemic started. Its where I kept all the important information - PPE guidance, treatment guidelines, visitation rules, ICNARC updates...

 

I can't really describe how it felt, walking back through time like that. Inside of half an hour I relived the whole thing - the initial trepidation watching it develop in Wuhan, China and the Diamond Princess; gobsmacked at how it hit Italy and knowing we were seeing two or three weeks into the future; grim acceptance as we started to see it hit the UK properly; and finally the dig in for a long hard slog where we never knew which day would be our last day of work.

 

Emails about how we had less than twelve hours of PPE left, or banning all visitors even for End of Life, or roping in retirees and non-ICU staff and the Army, or the third update on a day as to proper isolation procedures. Plans to double, then triple capacity, and then putting those plans into practice. Cautious praise for getting out of the first wave, our colleagues obituary, sliding into the second wave. How we were one of the last units with admission capacity in the country only because we had over 100 beds, and how I would look after six patients with no other ICU staff to support me. How we knew the relaxing of rules for Xmas would lead to a new peak around the 16th January and last another month - and it did. And the gentle closing of the COVID-19 areas as we slowly emptied of cases.

 

It was surreal. If I'm in a lecture hall twenty years from now trying to help a new wave of students understand these times, I don't know how I'll describe it.

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1 hour ago, Kestra15 said:

It was surreal. If I'm in a lecture hall twenty years from now trying to help a new wave of students understand these times, I don't know how I'll describe it.

Just as you did here. That is very surreal.

 

We still have people here convinced that a) they had it back in November 2019 and/or b) the work colleague who died in November (likely from AIDS) died from Covid. And of course they cannot be convinced otherwise.

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There are some scattered reports of potential COVID-19 infections back around that time, but unless there is a lab confirmation it's safe to say it'll be everything but that.

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34 minutes ago, Kestra15 said:

There are some scattered reports of potential COVID-19 infections back around that time, but unless there is a lab confirmation it's safe to say it'll be everything but that.

That's what I keep telling people. Plus, had it been Covid, I'm sure more than three or four people would have had it.

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@Kestra15

I think if you get to lecture future students about the thing, you should definitely remind them of the "Spanish" flu in 1918 and that the initial measures in 2020 were actually pretty much the same than then: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus

 

And when you look at the case of Philadelphia, it appears that people today haven't actually learned from that: https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/flu-epidemic-hits-philadelphia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/30/kumbh-mela-how-a-superspreader-festival-seeded-covid-across-india

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That's the thing - the whole pandemic has played out like an epidemiological dream in that it is following the pattern of all the most basic models. Stuff I learned on day one of my Master's back in 2008 applies full-force here. Including the old maxim about those who fail to learn from the past is doomed to repeat those mistakes.

 

Even the fact that certain former world embarrassments insisted on calling it 'China Flu' and 'Kung Flu' echoes the H1N1 outbreak being so widely known as 'Spanish Flu.'

Edited by Kestra15

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11 hours ago, Astreya said:

:o

 

And Japan still seems determined to hold the Olympics. *shakes head*

 

Our numbers are still high.

 

My brother went out for his first restaurant dinner since last September two days ago, in Offenbach.

Edited by Lagie
Afterthought

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_118733653_microsoftteams-image-6.png

 

Hmm, where I have I seen this graph before...

1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

 

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@Kestra15

The worst thing is that it appears that in numerous countries there were only very rudimentary plans how to deal with an epidemic/pandemic (and if there were, they were usually about a possible influenza pandemic) - and not even these were properly implemented.  Plus the politisation of the pandemic (mostly by populists or autocratic leaders) where things were talked down and sometimes even proper measures were blocked because it didn't fit the narrative that everything was perfectly fine, made things much worse than it would have been otherwise.

 

The original German pandemic plan also focused on how to prevent a flu pandemic. (IIRC the WHO suggested in April 1999 to set up national influenza pandemic plans and this was centred on H1N1 outbreaks). It was updated in 2003 to add measures against the original SARS-CoV, but then it mainly stayed locked away in some drawers, too. At least they decided to update it in March 2020, and the government set new legislation in motion to fight SARS-CoV-2 in November 2020.

 

What I find sad is that despite having some plan that in the beginning worked pretty well, it didn't manage to contain the second wave and the third wave as a plan is only as good as the people following it. Sadly there are so many Covidiots and conspiracy theorists around that actively work against the proper containment measures that things are only prolonged and the number of casualties increases. Hence our curve of new cases looks like this [source]:

covid.png

Of course the decreasing number of cases means that people are crying for a loosening of measures again, fully ignoring that the numbers only went down because of tightened measures.

 

 

By the way, the development of the pandemic in Germany follows the 1918 flu apparently even more uncannily - particularly as now more younger people suffer from severe Covid and stay in the hospitals for even longer than the elderly people in the first wave. Of course this is mainly due to the fact that the vaccinations started with the elderly, but it appears as if particularly the B 1.1.7 variant seems to be more infectious for younger people in general.

 

This chart by ntv shows the highest incidence per district according to the age groups. The under 14 year old kids in bright yellow and the people aged 15-34 years (ochre) are the main carriers of the virus at the moment:

covage.png

Edited by Astreya

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I do lay a lot of blame at the feet of politicians. Like you said so many didn't get on board early with scientific advice because it didn't fit the narrative (or they felt it would harm the economy too much). Boris Johnson didn't attend the first five emergency meetings; Donald Trump infamously played it down far too much and peddled so much rubbish; Jair Bolsonaro dismissed his health ministers even as deaths rose; Narendra Modi is not exactly steering the good ship India too well. Devolved regional politics plays a part in these cases too but it is still poor governmental and regional policy making. It the fuels the naysayers and conspiracy theorists, giving them a voice and in some cases even ratifying them (c.f. Trump and bleach/hydroxychloroquine).

 

I just...you would think each world leader who caught it might have had a better understanding, more sympathy, return determined to help others avoid their pain. Or just have basic human empathy and take their role of being the carers teach f their country seriously.

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Indeed. I followed the developments closely, and certain autocrats and autocratic leaning politicians (and I would put Mr.Johnson in the latter bracket, too, just like Mr.Trump) managed to mess up the response big time. And of course they have gotten the best care that would not necessarily be available for "the common folk" (particularly in the US, although the NHS has seemingly declined due to underfunding in recent years, too, as I observed even from my place.

 

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As of today, Tuesday, June 1, 15:15 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 164 (-11) active cases, while 10 409 (+30)  people are considered to have recovered. 348 (+1) persons sadly died. 419 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 881 (the number is lower than yesterday as there was a revision of the numbers between Feb 1 and May 31) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 25.1 (+0.4).

 

Currently 16 (-2) persons are treated in hospitals, with 6 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 4 (-1) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 96 709 (1st jab, 45.8%) and 34 284 (2nd jab, 16.2%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

 

Edited by Astreya

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Yeah, the £13billion underfunding over ten years left a mark...

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I finally got my first shot of Moderna yesterday. My arm has been extremely sore since I got it but it’s slowly starting to go back to normal. I’m glad I didn’t really have any symptoms other than the sore arm, my mom was sick for a week when she got hers.

 

I still have to wait until September to get my second shot, but the nurses told me that it might be changed and it’ll be earlier. It all depends on whether or not they get the vaccines early.

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My friend in Malaysia said they are now on a very strict lock down. Stricter than ever before.

 

Over 9,000 new confirmed cases and 98 more dead.

 

She is in Terengganu.

 

Her mother has been vaccinated, but she has not. Not enough vaccines to go around.

Edited by PrincessLucy

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@PrincessLucy

I just heard in the news that the cases in East Asia are on the rise. I hope your friend will stay safe!

 

 

In Germany the anti-covid measures have been eased over the last days, and of course the cases are gradually going up again. Not exponentially (yet), but the good development due to the lockdown has stopped.

 

What I find particularly saddening is that there are still so many deaths (still around 150-200 per day in the whole of Germany) . An epidemiologist explained it in an interview that at the moment we still have 2147 people in intensive care with 1386 of them needing artificial respiration, and 40-60% oft those who need artificial respiration are expected to die due to multi organ failure, no matter what the doctors do.

 

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As of today, Wednesday, June 2, 11:45 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 126 (-38) active cases, while 10 415 (+6 - looks like they are still fixing the numbers as they revised the data from February 1 to May 31)  people are considered to have recovered. 349 (+1) persons sadly died. 346 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 890 (+9) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 27.1 (+2.4).

 

Currently 16 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with 4 (-2) of them in intensive care, 3 (-1) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 96 770 (1st jab, 45.9%) and 35 162 (2nd jab, 16.7%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

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It's that 40-60% people don't seem to understand; that hasn't changed since the pandemic started. There is no cure, no magic fix; it is all about the supportive/symptomatic care. The main thing is reducing the number of people who need ICU care, and spreading it out over time so there's always room.

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Indeed.

 

We have a handful of doctors (I heard of at least two or so pulmonologists who went that way) who decided to try and prolong the time until they intubate their patients as much as possible as invasive respiration can damage the already damaged lung tissues even more. In quite some cases they managed to let their patients pull through just by giving additional oxygen without invasive measures and noticed they often have a better outcome than doctors who start early with invasive measures. Unfortunately many doctors don't want to take the risk to keep their patients off intubation or ECMO as their oxygenation levels can get very problematic, too, of course.

 

And even when there are fewer people who clog the ICUs, there is also still much too little data about long covid. From what I read, the cases of long covid are a considerable problem for the health systems, too, as the people need quite some medical care even if they don't fill the ICUs.

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Screenshot_20210602-190846.thumb.jpg.f7481bd2fe6d70cced79cf6cd490b348.jpg

I don't know what alternate reality our Health Minister is living in where this number makes any sense. Our population is just under 400,000. His magic number isn't even a third of that so how can it put us in a 'good place'?

 

Our numbers seem to finally be easing up but that's only based on two days' info. I'll see what the next few days bring before I believe it.

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@Lagie

Our Health Minister fortunately takes his clues from the Robert-Koch-Institute. Prof.Dr.Lothar Wieler (The RKI's boss) stated just two days ago that we can hopefully let our guard a bit down when we will have surpassed a vaccination rate of 80% of the population (either with 2 jabs of mRNA vaccines and AZ, or with 1 Jab of the J&J vaccine) - but only provided if there won't be any more aggressive SARS-CoV-2 mutants.

 

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As of today, Thursday, June 3, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 115 (-11) active cases, while 10 440 (+25)  people are considered to have recovered. 349 (+-0) persons sadly died. 341 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 904 (+14) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 30.4 (+3.3).

 

Currently 14 (-2) persons are treated in hospitals, with 4 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 3 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 99 320 (1st jab, 47.1%) and 38 068 (2nd jab, 18.0%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

 

Edited by Astreya

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9 hours ago, Astreya said:

when we will have surpassed a vaccination rate of 80% of the population

80% makes sense. Barely a third, as our Health Minister implies with 120,000, is some alternate reality world. :rolleyes:

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@Lagie Yeah. A third is way too low to have any proper effect.

 

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As of today, Friday, June 4, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 114 (-1) active cases, while 10 452 (+12)  people are considered to have recovered. 350 (+1) persons sadly died. 271 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 916 (+12) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 28.5 (-1.9).

 

Currently 11 (-3) persons are treated in hospitals, with 4 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 3 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 99 327 (1st jab, 47.1%) and 39 516 (2nd jab, 18.7%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

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And lo, higher numbers and more deaths. :(

June 2nd - 37 new cases from 396 tests (9.3% poisitivity), 24 on my island, for a new total of 11,930. Two additional deaths takes that total to 232. :(

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@Lagie

You still have a pretty high positivity rate! But from the other posts of yours it looks as if it fortunately went down a bit.

(In Germany the positivity rate was 12.42% in W16 (=April 19-25)  and is now 4.16% in W21 (=May 24-30).)

 

The problem with severe cases and deaths is that these follow the original infection by several weeks. The RKI gives 2-3 weeks after the infection as the time when a person has to be admitted to the hospital if the patient suffers a severe case. A patient then can stay in ICU for weeks (if not months) until the outcome is known (either recovery or death). As recently we have more younger patients with severe cases (as more of the elderly are vaccinated), the time they spend on the ICUs can be much longer as they are able to fight the virus for longer.

 

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As of today, Saturday, June 5, 09:15 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 101 (-13) active cases, while 10 467 (+15)  people are considered to have recovered. 350 (+-0) persons sadly died. 257 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 918 (+2) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 23.7 (-4.8).

 

Currently 12 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 4 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 3 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 99 327 (1st jab, 47.1%) and 40 810 (2nd jab, 19.3%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Sunday, June 6, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 100 (-1) active cases, while 10 473 (+6)  people are considered to have recovered. 350 (+-0) persons sadly died. 241 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 923 (+5) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 21.8 (-1.9).

 

Currently 11 (-1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 4 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 3 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 99 327 (1st jab, 47.1%) and 42 060 (2nd jab, 19.9%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Monday, June 7, 09:45 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 106 (+6) active cases, while 10 474 (+1)  people are considered to have recovered. 350 (+-0) persons sadly died. 239 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 930 (+7) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 24.2 (+2.4).

 

Currently 12 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 4 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 3 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 99 329 (1st jab, 47.1%) and 43 319 (2nd jab, 20.5%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Tuesday, June 8, 09:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 99 (-7) active cases, while 10 481 (+7)  people are considered to have recovered. 353 (+3) persons sadly died. 239 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 933 (+3) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 23.7 (-0.5).

 

Currently 9 (-3) persons are treated in hospitals, with 2 (-2) of them in intensive care, 2 (-1) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 100 996 (1st jab, 47.9%) and 45 657 (2nd jab, 21.6%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Wednesday, June 9, 10:30 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 90 (-9) active cases, while 10 492 (+11)  people are considered to have recovered. 353 (+-0) persons sadly died. 231 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 935 (+2) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 19.9 (-3.8).

 

Currently 10 (+1) persons are treated in hospitals, with 2 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 2 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 100 996 (1st jab, 47.9%) and 46 403 (2nd jab, 22.0%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Thursday, June 10, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 83 (-7) active cases, while 10 507 (+15)  people are considered to have recovered. 353 (+-0) persons sadly died. 224 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 943 (+8) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 17.1 (-2.8).

 

Currently 7 (-3) persons are treated in hospitals, with 3 (+1) of them in intensive care, 2 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 100 998 (1st jab, 47.9%) and 47 099 (2nd jab, 22.3%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Friday, June 11, 11:15 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 90 (+7) active cases, while 10 508 (+1)  people are considered to have recovered. 353 (+-0) persons sadly died. 220 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 951 (+8) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 17.1 (+-0.0).

 

Currently 5 (-2) persons are treated in hospitals, with 1 (-2) of them in intensive care, 1 (-1) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 102 568 (1st jab, 48.6%) and 51 372 (2nd jab, 24.3%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Saturday, June 12, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 97 (+7) active cases, while 10 511 (+3)  people are considered to have recovered. 353 (+-0) persons sadly died. 206 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 961 (+10) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 18.0 (+0.9).

 

Currently 5 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with 1 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 1 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 102 569 (1st jab, 48.6%) and 52 220 (2nd jab, 24.7%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Sunday, June 13, 10:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 97 (+-0) active cases, while 10 516 (+5)  people are considered to have recovered. 353 (+-0) persons sadly died. 212 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 966 (+5) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 19.5 (+1.5).

 

Currently 8 (+3) persons are treated in hospitals, with 1 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 1 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 102 569 (1st jab, 48.6%) and 53 379 (2nd jab, 25.3%) vaccinations so far.

 

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As of today, Monday, June 14, 11:00 GMT+2, my home town (population 211 000) has 105 (+8) active cases, while 10 517 (+1)  people are considered to have recovered. 353 (+-0) persons sadly died. 201 persons are currently quarantined. All in all there have been 10 975 (+9) people who suffered from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of newly infected people per 100 000 citizens in the last 7 days is 19.9 (+0.4).

 

Currently 8 (+-0) persons are treated in hospitals, with 1 (+-0) of them in intensive care, 1 (+-0) of these needing artificial respiration.

There have been 102 570 (1st jab, 48.6%) and 54 501 (2nd jab, 25.8%) vaccinations so far.

[Source: Stadt Oberhausen]

Edited by Astreya

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UK is delaying reopening fully, which is fine with me. I'm antisocial at the best of times, and anything to hold off the next wave and/or make it more manageable is good.

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