Limit Raffle CBs per scroll

[Fuzzbucket]

OK - no support. TJ has said it wouldn't make any significant difference in the stats anyway, and it would take away from the randomness of a lottery - which is all this is.

[Princess Kiara]

I vote no on this. The chances of a repeat win are already so small. I would support more prizes being given out per raffle, but not any of the other suggestions.

[Vaatzes]

In small raffles with maybe 20 or so people the odds of winning a raffle is relatively high, so if you're raffling two eggs in that way it makes sense to say "if a previous winner gets chosen again, we'll pick a different one". Doing some rough calculations:
In a raffle with two eggs and 20 entrants, the chance to win at least 1 egg is almost 10%. That's a big chance. The chance of winning BOTH eggs, however, is 0.25%. See how vastly different these probabilities are? The chance of obtaining multiple eggs gets even smaller beyond two eggs, especially with the hundreds (if not thousands?) of entrants in the DC raffle.

 

You'll find very quickly that limiting previous winners from entering again does very little to increase your odds: if 1000 people enter a raffle for a single egg but 10 are limited from entering, that'll only increase your chances of winning that egg by 0.001%. You'll see similar "gains" in successive raffles. In this case, I don't believe it's worth antagonising 10 people for a minor gain of 0.001%, especially because the odds of anyone winning two eggs is already extremely small (and three even smaller).

 

The alternative solution that is proposed is limiting 2 CB's per type. There are 6 types in total. Before someone'd be affected by this they'd have to win one type at least three times. There might be a few people around who got this lucky, but I personally don't know if anyone like that exists. So then what does this accomplish? It needlessly adds convoluted rules to the raffling system that, because of the way probabilities work, already makes sure people with multiples (3 or more) of the same egg are few and far between if not completely non-existent. The rules don't even significantly improve anyone else's odds of winning, either.

 

At best, such rules would be confusing. At worst, they'll piss off the people who've been lucky enough to win once or twice and generally take away the magic of winning a large raffle.

[olympe]

On 4/16/2019 at 7:24 PM, LadyLyzar said:

Hey guys - remember this suggestion is to limit raffle CBs per scroll.  The discussion has veered pretty far away from that.

 

I get it - Prize dragons definitely have an effect on DC's economy and there are many suggestions to deal with them.  Let's focus on this one.

As true as this is, there's the problem that there are some suggestions around that have quite a bit of support - from making CB prizes available in the cave to putting them up in the market. And whether limits to raffle Prizes should apply might depend heavily on the other options.

 

@Zalom: Your numbers are wrong. First of all, in a raffle, where everyone can only enter one ticket, everyone can only win one prize during that one raffle. Repeat winners on DC don't happen in one and the same raffle, as far as I'm aware, but in several different raffles.

 

Also, while the chances of winning don't increase by much if raffle winners are excluded from entering again, there's the fact that there are quite a few two- or even three-times raffle winners around. And each repeat win that makes one person feel super extra special *again* could also go to a person who has never had that kind of luck. 

[Fuzzbucket]

Even so, limiting repeats would take away some of the randomness there is. I still don't support it. (NO I have never won...)

[pinkgothic]

4 hours ago, Zalom said:

You'll find very quickly that limiting previous winners from entering again does very little to increase your odds: if 1000 people enter a raffle for a single egg but 10 are limited from entering, that'll only increase your chances of winning that egg by 0.001%. You'll see similar "gains" in successive raffles. In this case, I don't believe it's worth antagonising 10 people for a minor gain of 0.001%, especially because the odds of anyone winning two eggs is already extremely small (and three even smaller).

The chance of a there being one or more repeat winner each raffle is actually much closer to 70%. The chance of a particular person winning multiple times is what's vanishingly small. The chance of a particular person winning two times in sequence is even smaller. See the birthday paradox for some discussion about this counter-intuitive statistical behaviour. See here for TJ explaining the odds:

 

 

(That said, the statement "it would do very little to increase your odds" is definitely also true, since you're not competing against the 70%.)

Edited April 19, 2019 by pinkgothic
Added bold to quote for emphasis, since otherwise it's just confusing what I'm even saying.

[Silverdrak]

I'm split on this.

On the one hand I'm a collector and of course want to get them all but on the other hand I'm really frustrated with trading. I need on more CB gold to complete my CB scroll goal but it is imposible to trade one if you don't have a ND or can't breed gen2 SA or prizes. Have no clue how some people can offer two CB golds at once for trading sometimes... I see them really seldom and if I see them I can grab them. And my connection isn't slow.

There is such a big trading gap that you can't overcome with "regular" dragons (inkluding dinos).

 

So I wish my chances on getting a prize dragon would be a bit bigger. I'm not really for a limit (though probably two of a breed maybe as long as a lot don't have one) but more for either more prizes in the lottery or more options to win them.

Randomizers hate me...

[purpledragonclaw]

I do not support limiting CB Prizes awarded randomly to users. Why should they not get a chance for more because their luck is better than others? 

[Sundew]

I'd like for prizes to become more widely available, but number-wise this doesn't seem like an effective way of doing that. I don't think it should be impossible for someone to collect CB prizes.

[VixenDra]

Hell no.

 

It's way too late.

That would be incredibly unfair since there are some people already who can breed PB prizes, and preventing more people from ever being able to do that would wind up a PB Prize's worth beyond scale, there are more SAs out there than scrolls with 2 exact Shimers or Tinsels.

 

BTW those dragons should be available in the Market. Raffle should only be a way to get them free without weeks of consistend Shard collecting for many months. The only truly fair way to deal with Shimmers and Tinsels. Only after makign them available in the Market, winning multiples could be limited, but as long as they aren't obtainable in any other way, they just mustn't be limited anymore because there are already people who can breed PBs and their trading power would potentially exceed that of holiday spriters (Tbh PB prize pairs are worth more than NDs or SAs to me right now).