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BlueLatios

Cave Observation Statistics

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Just want to share what I have observed in the cave so far :D. Even though I'm less active, sometimes I get bored, but there's not much to do when you're egglocked. Instead of trying to get rares from caves, I'm simply gonna observe what kinds of eggs are there (I do try to take eggs when I'm not egglocked, but someone else is faster >.>).

This is my result so far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ru5AECpsfkEm4cC1Za6MFG13GkaDJRHFGrl8ozGj5uQ/edit?usp=sharing

 

(I notice that this is a personal observation, it might differ due to time, ecology, or simply because I wasn't refreshing fast enough to see rare eggs appear in the cave before it was taken. It's still fun to see how rares are truly rare, and what isn't.)

 

After finding the names and rarities of the said eggs with "Which Egg is Which?", I was surprised to see that the eggs that I sometimes skipped are actually rare, and that the eggs that I thought were rare are actually common or just uncommon. I have a theory, maybe it's because of the many users who had them on their scrolls, or that the Abandoned Page has too many of those eggs, thus making them more common there, but seemingly rare from caves.

Also, I did try to take some rares like a Chicken, but failed. Aeon Wyvern is somewhat considered rare, as I've seen it so less in caves and quickly obtained, don't know why but "time is distorted" sounds interesting.
In the end, I only got a Nexus egg, it seems. But it was a fun thing to do, and I'd like to do another when I have spare time again :D

 

(P.S. I heard Ice, Magma, and Thunder are the three valuable species to be sought after due to their rarity. No kidding, I haven't seen them once yet haha.)

 

Edit: I realise that within an hour, some eggs have a chance to be repeated in the cycle of 5-minute marks. Example, an egg with code Abcde in Alpine biome at 12:20 am, may appear later at 12:25 am if noone has taken it yet. So, the number of eggs found in caves in the spreadsheet might not be accurate, but it might give an idea of which eggs are rarely taken or unwanted.

Edited by BlueLatios
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You will find - over time - that the wiki ratings are far from 100%. They are based on viewer information. It is an excellent resource but isn't official.

 

The Legendary Trio (Ice, Magma, Thunder) are sought after at least partly because you need them to summon a Guardian of Nature.

 

And everyone has different experiences. I have often sat for a long time looking for a waterhorse, and also for balloons. You also need to take account of the fact that newer releases will show up more often until their ratios balance out. Hence the numbers for Razorcrests, Melisimors and Leonids.

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3 rares to summon something, each with elements of ice, fire, and electric, where have I heard of that before? :v

 

Ahh so they're newer too.

I thought Pyrovars were the only ones skyrocketing in numbers alone haha.

I will place dates of observation for reference, for comparison. Whether wiki says they're Rare or Uncommon, I'll just compete for eggs that disappear in less than a second :)

 

I must ask though, does the time of observation affect the eggs found in caves, or they're simply coincidental (because random function does not guarantee a uniform distribution)? Time as in Day or Night, and the Moons phases.

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Wow, this is pretty interesting! I sit in the biomes fairly constantly every day but I've never actually made a log of what I see... What I think is really interesting about that spreadsheet is that some of the much older breeds are seen more often then some of the much newer breeds, despite those breeds seeming to be relatively similar in rarity (the numbers for Mints and Seragammas compared to Spinels and Khusas, for example).

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25 minutes ago, Jack_Indivisible said:

Whoa, how long have you been recording? :o

Tens of thousands of records, that's amazing!

 

More data, in the form of seperated by biomes, sweet! I can only record little, every 5 minutes I refresh twice and double check for new eggs (by checking if the code link is the same as before refresh or not, for similar descriptions) to increment the counts, before waiting a few seconds for the next 5 minute-mark. Did you collaborate with someone or used an API to aid this recording?

 

Though I noticed that in the spreadsheet, all the biomes are Coast, and the Pyrovars exist in the Alpine part of the spreadsheet q:

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I used a script to look at the page whenever I refreshed it, just noting the url and which descriptions are on the page.

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Nice! I'm guessing that the common eggs are unwanted, so it stays on the page longer; thus the large number.

 

Updated 2nd observation a few minutes ago, I wanted to do longer but I think I'm satisfied, I get to see a Thunder dragon before it disappears :D

Added a total of eggs seen in each observation, perhaps someone might want to do a few math inferences, maybe?

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I catch a lot of chickens. Sometimes I gift, some I trade for codes. I've gotten rid of more chickens then I know what to do with

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3 hours ago, BlueLatios said:

I'm guessing that the common eggs are unwanted, so it stays on the page longer; thus the large number

Absolutely what is happening here. Eggs seem to be sticking around in the biomes longer and longer, and I even saw magis, reds, and purps fail to get picked up. I think that what's happened is that all of the new breeds in the cave are causing people to specialize, leaving commons out of their projectsand reducing demand for everything in general. Stuff that's valuabe gets picked up really quickly, but everything else hangs around until someone that is specifically looking for it comes along.

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Updated 3rd observation, decided to do it in Night time of the server.

I find it funny how some eggs descriptions are "under sunlight", are the Moons that bright? XD

 

Also, yay I spotted my first Magma dragon! Also, lol a Leetle Tree.

Which brings to me a new question, if the rarity is not based on the total amount of dragons, but rather the amount of eggs spawned in cave, could that mean that some Commons and Uncommons are much rarer than other species of similar rarity? (Example, Even though they're not taken as fast, I have seen only 2 Plated Colossus eggs out of 3 observations (although it might also mean that I'm observing at the wrong times). The Baikala eggs also appear less, almost making them as rare as Xenowyrms.)

 

I also noticed that the Black Truffle, despite being quite the uncommon, is usually taken rather quick, who's collecting an army of them, I wonder?

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On 7/24/2018 at 9:59 PM, HeatherMarie said:

Wow, this is pretty interesting! I sit in the biomes fairly constantly every day but I've never actually made a log of what I see... What I think is really interesting about that spreadsheet is that some of the much older breeds are seen more often then some of the much newer breeds, despite those breeds seeming to be relatively similar in rarity (the numbers for Mints and Seragammas compared to Spinels and Khusas, for example).

People are more likely to be stocking up on newer ones than older ones.

 

I wonder whether we should distinguish between "drop rarity" (i.e. how often things appear) and "catch rarity" (i.e. how long they stay for). I worry that stuff like this ends up becoming a bit inaccurate due to the fact that with particularly desirable stuff you might not even see it before it vanishes.

Edited by osmarks

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1 hour ago, osmarks said:

I wonder whether we should distinguish between "drop rarity" (i.e. how often things appear) and "catch rarity" (i.e. how long they stay for). I worry that stuff like this ends up becoming a bit inaccurate due to the fact that with particularly desirable stuff you might not even see it before it vanishes. 

 

Ahh I see, it will be just slightly inaccurate for some of the desirable stuff, but I try to refresh all cave pages as quickly as possible in every 5 minute-mark, it usually takes a second before a rare egg disappears, and I think that should be enough for it to appear. What might be inaccurate, however, are the times I'm observing, sometimes at day, sometimes at night, but I'm not observing all 24 hours of the day constantly. Also, RNG-based cave. Though there is a small weakness in my method, if a rare egg appears after one egg is taken from a biome, I might not be able to see it, as I don't refresh every second because of recording each eggs' descriptions. The desired or rare eggs that are observed currently are eggs that spawn directly at the 5-minute mark, all others are either at the 5-minute mark, or seen in cave after a few eggs are taken from their habitat.

Example, I thought Balloon Dragons weren't so rare, until I found out I don't even see them anymore in my second and third observation.

 

For now, expect them to be drop rarities. Catch rarities are relatively similar, with the exception of a few such as Black Truffles, although they are quite common, they disappear rather quickly too as I mentioned before. Rares stay rare, only a few Uncommons get taken fast, and low-numbered Commons are to the point of almost not existing in the caves, but nobody is taking them either.

 

If anything statistics have ever taught me, it's that more data and observations will lead to better statistics. So I'll just keep on observing whenever I have the time, until the numbers are large enough to make comparisons (with the dates taken into account, such as this month where Pyrovars and Black Truffles have just been released).

Edited by BlueLatios
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Updated 4th observation, was tracking while hunting at the same time because I coincidentally had enough slots to take eggs. Was excited to see all the Rares that I missed haha, but still no sight of that Ice egg. Also, updated that the Dino species means any-colored Dino; the previous time I tried to take it instead of copying their descriptions first, and all the dinos have the same beginning description so I lost myself.

 

Either this hour seems lucky, or I'm seeing a tiny increase in Xenowyrm and Copper eggs? Also, the time seems unfavorable for a few Uncommons, as I couldn't find any of them in the hour. Also, I observed new egg species, Paper and Two-headed Lindwyrm species (where has this Uncommon been lol).

Also, someone should probably make Aeon Wyverns rare soon, they're rarer than Xenowyrms to me (or make Xenowyrms Uncommon), but oh well that's probably just cave statistics, not the whole population statistics.

 

(I was supposed to take eggs from the Abandoned Page but I got too carried away in observing and hunting and took quite rare eggs instead. Back to being egglocked, I guess.)

Edited by BlueLatios
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5th obsevation, still no sight of Ice...

I actually don't plan on posting on every observation, unless I have something new for myself.
Apparently, I just realised that Blusang Lindwyrms are rare, and Gold eggs are very rare, and is completely different from Golden Wyvern eggs.

I'm surprised that the Balloon species are actually listed as Common rarity in the wiki :o

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They definitely used to be blockers, but since I came back I've seen barely any.

(I think that's an improvement, as they seem to have a fanclub with most people hating them)

Edited by Jack_Indivisible

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I thought after a few days' pause, the ratios would be slightly better. So I did a short observation while on the usual hunt, turns out Mimic Pygmies are still at large.

Guess I'll wait for another week, maybe.

(Also, finally, spotted a CB Ice in the Alpine. Why did I lag at that minute 😣)

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On 7/28/2018 at 12:45 AM, BlueLatios said:

I'm surprised that the Balloon species are actually listed as Common rarity in the wiki :o

Really? I see those things regularly, mostly in the Coast, and they always stay a minute or two before eventually getting picked up. I see them more often than Nhiostrifes, and these are 100 shards less in the Market. Galsreim is a strange world.

But you can always add your two cents to the wiki, e.g. here: http://dragcave.wikia.com/wiki/Thread:24623

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1 hour ago, Ruby Eyes said:

Really? I see those things regularly, mostly in the Coast, and they always stay a minute or two before eventually getting picked up. I see them more often than Nhiostrifes, and these are 100 shards less in the Market. Galsreim is a strange world.

But you can always add your two cents to the wiki, e.g. here: http://dragcave.wikia.com/wiki/Thread:24623

That seems like a great place to drop my two cents to, just idk how I should post, so I just dropped a random post to the thread creator XD

How are Balloons Common? I've done quite a number of egg hunts too for a few minutes here and there, but I've seen only very few of them (and actually more of Zyumorphs and Xenowyrms).

But you're right, there's a time where the egg was at the biome but was never picked up by anyone (I didn't pick it up either, unless it's a Z code), so not putting it as a Rare justifies that. But why not Uncommon? :v

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5 minutes ago, BlueLatios said:

just idk how I should post

At the bottom is a "Post a reply" input box ;)

 

6 minutes ago, BlueLatios said:

But why not Uncommon? :v

By the time the rarity guide was built, Balloons *were* rather common. It's horribly outdated, hence the update thread.

Edited by Ruby Eyes

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