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Shokomon

Watching the Market

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Full disclosure: I bought one gold.  If this WAS a glitch, I'm okay with losing it.  

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19 minutes ago, osmarks said:

I consider this unlikely, since golds would basically always be taken

Golds are stuck behind the Halloween wall just like commons.

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Just now, Ruby Eyes said:

Golds are stuck behind the Halloween wall just like commons.

I mean golds in the cave.

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1 minute ago, osmarks said:

I mean golds in the cave.

Well, as far as I can tell, *I* was the one who brought up that theory (the one you mentioned) here in the forum, and I was specifically referring to the AP.

Edited by Ruby Eyes

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Hmmm...I don't really want even a parentless gold if it's not a z, and I have all the dinos and paper and cheese...not sure I want to buy anything at all.  Well...maybe a pair of silvers (not crazy about the gold sprites).

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Just now, Ruby Eyes said:

Well, as far as I can tell, *I* was the one who brought up that theory here in the forum, and I was specifically referring to the AP.

Oh, okay. That was suggested to me by a discord user when we were discussing it.

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It really doesn't matter who suggested what hypothesis.

 

But yes, Halloween probably just made the ratios all wacky. I highly doubt it's a glitch, though that doesn't mean TJ won't tweak the market to cause it not to be impacted so much by holidays.

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I bought two Golds and an Aeon. A friend of mine bought a Gold, a Silver, a Kingcrowne and a Siyat. But if the Halloween event made the ratios this wacky... imagine what'd happen to them after the Christmas event. :blink:

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Yeah, I love that idea too. That's what my friend thought this to be when I told him about the sudden price drop.

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Halloween is the holiday that can mess up ratios because there's no limit to how many CBs we can catch + we already had the holiday biome last year so the number of CB incremented... and with people breeding their CB (+ all the lineages), that's potentially thousands of new eggs in DC in a few days...

 

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27 minutes ago, relaks said:

Halloween is the holiday that can mess up ratios because there's no limit to how many CBs we can catch + we already had the holiday biome last year so the number of CB incremented... and with people breeding their CB (+ all the lineages), that's potentially thousands of new eggs in DC in a few days...

 

That makes sense. If many new eggs are being introduced to the system, then that will most affect the stuff which is rarest, by causing greater absolute ratio change, versus commons, which experience less. As for why it happened now? Weekly updates, possibly.

 

(was that unclear? here's a nice example)

 

Imagine there are 200 dragons, 5 of which are golds.

The ratio of golds to total dragons is now 5:200 = 1:40. If the target ratio is 1:50 then prices will be higher to compensate.

 

Now imagine there are an extra 200 dragons added, none of which are golds.

The ratio would then be 5:400 = 1:80. Then, assuming the same target, prices will drop.

The difference is then a factor of two, or 40.

 

But if there's a common (let's say there are 100 of them), then it does this instead:

 

Initially the ratio is 100:200 = 1:2.

After a thing happens the ratios are 100:400 = 1:4.

The difference here is also a factor of two, but also only two in absolute terms, which is less than 40.

 

This is of course simplified, and the ratios may not work like this, but this matches observed behavior pretty well.

Edited by osmarks

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3 minutes ago, random_dragon_collector said:

So will the prices last a week?  I need 3 dinos for freezing first stage sprites and can only buy 2 today...

Possibly. Depends if TJ09 sees this as a big enough problem to warrant intervention.

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I saw that Golds were 700 and in my panic of excitement I bought two. 8') I really hope it's not a glitch. I would rather that they're not taken away. I feel like the theory about Halloween affecting it sounds pretty solid, but who knows.

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38 minutes ago, random_dragon_collector said:

So will the prices last a week?  I need 3 dinos for freezing first stage sprites and can only buy 2 today...

Prices tend to adjust daily, but big jumps usually occur once a week especially after releases.

 

Makes you wonder if the Halloween Wall is causing serious mayhem.

 

I guess this is our black Friday?

 

Edit: Er...Cyber Monday really... Lol

Edited by Shokomon

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Okay, I'm caving ('caving', haha!). I'm buying a blue Dino. Maybe a yellow one too, those are the two types I have least of. If they get taken away hopefully our shards will be refunded, but on the off chance that this is *not* a glitch I'm throwing my hat in while I can!

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..

 

*gives in and buys a dino and a chicken*

 

It may not be a caught chicken, but man, am I glad to finally have one!

 

Edit: Actually, I'm at my egg limit, so I can't get a dino. Dangit. 

Edited by Shokomon

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2 minutes ago, Shokomon said:

..

 

*gives in and buys a dino and a chicken*

 

It may not be a caught chicken, but man, am I glad to finally have one!

I bought two Golds solely because I know I'll never be able to catch them on my own. If these end up being taken away... I'm gonna be a little irritated.

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I bought two golds too. I think there could be some other factors going, when did this drastic price drop happen exactly?

 

 

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I just realized now after reading the forum that that gold thing might be a glitch. I didn't pay attention to the other prices I just bought them on impulse because I thought the market was re-balanced by TJ or something. I really hope this dosn't get punished, I didn't realize that it might be a glitch! If this was a glitch i'm okay with getting refunded or something (I'm gonna be miffed if it's taken but no one gets refunded). But i'm gonna be 100% honest; I really hope I get to keep em, I know we probably won't if this isn't just the game being the game but I hope we can.

 

I really hope this is just a natural phenomenon because of the holidays or something and that from now on everyone gets to buy golds for cheap whenever the holidays end due to how players behave during the floods.

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There's a difference between a bug/glitch (I don't know, accidentally missing a - sign somewhere) and deliberately designed behavior doing unexpected things (or even expected things; there's not been any comment regarding this...).

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oh dear, it might be a glitch? I bought 2 Golds because i never get CB golds, and now i'm excited for the lineages i can make. I hope they don't get taken away

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