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Raffle Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Nightwalkerkey said:

Wow, I almost forgot if I entered or not. Looks like I won a bronze shimmer. I've never really looked at them need to things... Should I influence male or female? 

Maybe female so that you can breed 2G PB Prizes? Or you could not influence it and be surprised when it matures. Congrats on the extra lucky win!

 

Nothing for me this month, but I expected as much. 

Edited by The Dragoness
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15 minutes ago, Nightwalkerkey said:

Wow, I almost forgot if I entered or not. Looks like I won a bronze shimmer. I've never really looked at them need to things... Should I influence male or female? 

 

I second Dragoness's suggestion to influence it Female  (if only for my own selfish reasons :D - I'd love to trade you for a swap with this line..... https://dragcave.net/lineage/DKfQi  )

 

Congrats.  

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14 minutes ago, aphroditesky said:

 

I second Dragoness's suggestion to influence it Female  (if only for my own selfish reasons :D - I'd love to trade you for a swap with this line..... https://dragcave.net/lineage/DKfQi  )

 

Congrats.  

Oooh that's pretty. I've never been a fan of pb prizes, but maybe since that pair exists out there I might consider influencing female. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't they only breed one or the other permanently- silver tin perma or bronze perma in that case? nevermind I'm smart enough to search progeny lol!

 

And I just realized my above post says need when I meant to say bred. Darn phone keyboards, swiping to type!

What're some of your favorite and semi easily bred pairs?

Edited by Nightwalkerkey

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i influenced my silver shimmer male, because the vast majority of silver shimmer lineages i see are female and i feel like male silver shimmers would look nice with some of the female holidays out there

Edited by Sirithiliel

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No win here.

Kinda praying for some birthday luck for February but I know better than to get my hopes up. Only took me 8 real life years to win a custom made pet on another site so feels like it'll be about the same, if I'm fortunate, to win a CB Prize. >-<

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I forgot about the raffle this month, I mean I did enter but forgot to check on the 31st. Anyway I didn't win, as usual.

Congrats to all the winners! Hope you get a lot of shiny babies :D

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On 1/31/2019 at 5:27 PM, purplehaze said:

Yeah, without knowing how many people enter each month we have no way to calculate the odds of winning. It is just an interesting exercise in speculation. ;)

 

I don't know what to make of the odds at all. I would have said that the odds of winning are extremely low...but I cannot believe how many people there are that have won twice, even three times.

Edited by Dubious

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You could always sample the forum and see how many people have won a raffle by a certain date to make an assumption about the ratio of success to fails (assuming the number of entries are relatively stable.)

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7 hours ago, Shokomon said:

You could always sample the forum and see how many people have won a raffle by a certain date to make an assumption about the ratio of success to fails (assuming the number of entries are relatively stable.)

I think this could work. It might also be interesting to see how many people have won *multiple* times in a given amount of time. Maybe someone could set up a poll or Google form?

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Problems with a forum survey:

 

1. Are winners and non-winners equally likely to answer the survey?

Non-winners (among raffle participants; we can ignore the rest) might just not care about the survey. On the other hand, winners might not answer because they want to stay anonymous. (And if anonymous answers are allowed, trolling may happen.) And of course, it's also possible that non-winners are more likely to answer because it might feel like saying "NO, I HAVEN'T WON YET!" should convince the GoNs to magically make you win next time.  ;)

 

2. How many people joined the forum just because they won?

If this is a thing that happens, winners are over-represented on the forum. But again, of course people might also join the forum to find out why they never win...

 

We could ask the only person who really knows, but he probably won't tell.  :D  Although I think at some point he did provide a number that might have been somewhat near the actual number. No idea how to find that post, though... (I think it was 1% or 2%, but I can't really remember. And of course it can be different every month.)

 

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Also the large majority of players aren't on forum - but there is nothing to stop them entering.

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25 minutes ago, Fuzzbucket said:

Also the large majority of players aren't on forum - but there is nothing to stop them entering.

 

That's true, but we can ignore those for the survey since the (actual) win/no-win ratio will be the same for forum members and non-members.

 

Also, forum members may be more likely to participate, but that would only raise the percentage of forum members among the winners, not the percentage of winners among forum members.

(... I think. I just confused myself, but it made sense a minute ago.)

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 I think i might die of shock if i actually win but i’m pretty sure i’m safe as that will likely never happen. Good luck to everyone, hope to see alot of new winners! 😝

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Haha, I haven't won once and I've participated in all but one raffle. I would die of shock if I won as well but I'm convinced the chances of me winning are less than nil. I would bet money on it, heh. 

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I'm in the "if I win it won't matter because heart attack" crowd.  But I wait with bated breath, anyway.   Good luck to all!

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Good luck everyone! I'm sick and going to sleep early, so I guess I'll see results in the morning.

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Once again no win but I do have a shimmer I bred a few days ago sitting on my scroll so I can pretend I've won XD 

Guess I'm too early for the no-win cookies

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No win again for me, so where are the Cookies? 🍪😂 well, Congrats to the lucky winners anyway

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I'm not going to let this become a no-win situation!
*drops rain of cookies from the sky

Enjoy :D

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Surprise......................... no win.

 

No cookies please, I try not to indulge :(

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2 minutes ago, Fuzzbucket said:

Surprise......................... no win.

 

No cookies please, I try not to indulge :(

I second this. Congratulations to all the winners.

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