Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, HeatherMarie said: If we go by the last 'official' count of active users, from 2014, it will take over 50 years for every single user to get 1 CB Prize. It's highly unlikely that the majority of active users enter the raffle every month, though. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 16 hours ago, Ruby Eyes said: It's what I did with Winya! Silently bred and gifted a bunch (kept 1 for myself - the Valentine offspring ) and after a while, people started noticing her and approaching me for trades. I never actually thought her offspring would be valuable enough for trades but she got me my first Neglected - I'm still baffled! I'm the happy owner of one of Winya's 2gs...I believe I traded you a 5 letter word code for it too. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 I'm all set to not win. I have brownies and ice cream...and hot chocolate, though I might get out the whine. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 I've been playing DC almost since the begining-I recall when TJ was just a 17 yr old kid who started a fun game...I missed out on cb hollies-which are my very fav dragon. Hoped against all hope to win one in the old raffles as a HM...nope, but low and behold TJ brought them back! My point, never give up...I still haven't won a raffle, but still hope one day I will...A chance, tho its small, is still a chance, and its much better than no raffle at all. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, HeatherMarie said: Actually, we did the math in the Suggestion thread about putting Prizes in the Market. If we go by the last 'official' count of active users, from 2014, it will take over 50 years for every single user to get 1 CB Prize. That doesn't seem like an excellent chance to me. But who knows, it's *possible* that every single person posting in this thread will win sometime within the next year or so... Not likely, but possible. I'm curious what our new requirements will be this time. Another biome requirement? Maybe an Elemental requirement? That would be cool. Wow. That must have been some maths. But that seems ridiculous to me. The raffles have only been going for about a year and a half, right? And I would say around 50% of the users I see on the forums have at least one prize [although of course some are from the previous raffles before the monthly system]. That may be wrong, but it sure doesn't seem like only 1/50 of forum users have one. So I'd say that indicates a couple of things; 1. The odds are better than you might think, as it seems like nowhere near all active users are entering, especially when requirements are harder 2. There is almost certainly a bias towards forum users winning prizes as they tend to be more active and actually enter the raffle Therefore, probably, If you enter every month you should get lucky eventually Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 55 minutes ago, bonvoyage said: Wow. That must have been some maths. But that seems ridiculous to me. The raffles have only been going for about a year and a half, right? And I would say around 50% of the users I see on the forums have at least one prize [although of course some are from the previous raffles before the monthly system]. That may be wrong, but it sure doesn't seem like only 1/50 of forum users have one. So I'd say that indicates a couple of things; 1. The odds are better than you might think, as it seems like nowhere near all active users are entering, especially when requirements are harder 2. There is almost certainly a bias towards forum users winning prizes as they tend to be more active and actually enter the raffle Therefore, probably, If you enter every month you should get lucky eventually I wouldn't say 50% but for sure a much higher percentage than I'd expect of forum and discord users have prizes. I'd love to know how many people enter each month. In the discord we did some maths and if I think it was 4000 people enter each month you have nearly a 20% chance of winning at least once if you enter every month for a year. You've got to be careful about assuming which ways that sample of forum users with prizes might be biased though - yes it's biased towards users who are dedicated enough to the game to try every month, but it may also be biased towards users who already have a prize: they may find the forum/discord helpful for managing their prize, there may be those who wouldn't use the forum without a prize to organise trades/ambush gifting around or even who would have quit or played with much less dedication if they hadn't won. Being on the forum may indicate a level of investment in the game that leads to higher win rates but it may also be caused in some cases by having won a prize. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, FiveSix said: I wouldn't say 50% but for sure a much higher percentage than I'd expect of forum and discord users have prizes. I'd love to know how many people enter each month. In the discord we did some maths and if I think it was 4000 people enter each month you have nearly a 20% chance of winning at least once if you enter every month for a year. You've got to be careful about assuming which ways that sample of forum users with prizes might be biased though - yes it's biased towards users who are dedicated enough to the game to try every month, but it may also be biased towards users who already have a prize: they may find the forum/discord helpful for managing their prize, there may be those who wouldn't use the forum without a prize to organise trades/ambush gifting around or even who would have quit or played with much less dedication if they hadn't won. Being on the forum may indicate a level of investment in the game that leads to higher win rates but it may also be caused in some cases by having won a prize. Yeah you're right. There might be any number of reasons why forum users seem to have more prizes than the general populus and I definitely can't assume that's the reason, even though I definitely think the average forum user tends to be more active and dedicated than the average site-only user. People with prizes probably are more likely to be active on the forum than those without them. However I still think the high number of forum users with prizes indicates that entering every month consistently gives you a fairly decent chance a winning a prize within a couple of years. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) It doesn't feel like 50% (or even 20%) of forum users have a CB Prize, but maybe that's because I don't have one. Anyway, here's a script: Raffle chance calculator The default numbers are suggestions, change them for whatever you think is accurate. (Edit: oooh, cookie time! ) Edited January 31, 2019 by Confused Cat Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) TJ removed the "sorry" message, now nobody feels like they've lost, just the way how raffles should be (or maybe it's just me, but I used to find that message discouraging) Edit: I spoke too soon. Facepalm oops Edited January 31, 2019 by BlueLatios Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, BlueLatios said: TJ removed the "sorry" message, now nobody feels like they've lost, just the way how raffles should be (or maybe it's just me, but I used to find that message discouraging) Sorry but... Sorry, you were not selected as one of the winners in the January 2019 raffle. Don’t forget to enter this month’s raffle! Still there Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 I had a mini heart attack because I didn't see the sorry message and was freaking out thinking I didn't actually enter the raffle even though I swore I did Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 It just takes a few minutes for the message to actually display. No win here~ Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 New requirement is hatching 6 eggs... easy enough with the upcoming Vday event, yet still a new number involved (as opposed to the 3 that we had on other requirements before). Could be a bug though. I hope it’s not... Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 Hmmm I don't have any actual cookies, but I just got a packet full of various chocolates in the mail. Failchocolates anyone? If I ever win I will try to keep silent about it - but then again I'd probably feel tempted to post something like "oh no, no cookies for me this month", and then everybody would know. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 First egg hatched, 5 to go Hot chocolate with the cookies? Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 Well, I shall qualify within 36 hours Fat lot of good it will do. Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 Win here, yay. Actually, that was really unexpected Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Anilako said: Win here, yay. Actually, that was really unexpected Female this time? Congrats! Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ruby Eyes said: Female this time? Congrats! Hope so, influenced her Thank you! Share this post Link to post
Posted January 31, 2019 Congratulations for the winners, enjoy the prizes! ✨ I didn't have the luck this time either, but that's okay. Share this post Link to post
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