Trade Value Predictions

[sonseray]

This is a thread (approved by the mods) to predict the trade value of dragons over time. Use this thread to ask or answer questions about where the community thinks the value of specific dragons is heading

[sonseray]

Feel free to ask about any breeds in this thread.

 

 

I am specifically interested in hearing about Xenos, Coppers, and Almandine pyralspites.

 

Do you think these breeds will remain valuable? Why or why not?

[rubyshoes]

Other breeds I've seen a few comments on in the past are the shimmers and tinsels. Do you think their value will go down (or continue to go down) over time?

[DragoonEagle]

The value of tinsels depends on the lineage. As dragon cave grows, more, possibly rare, lineages come into play which are just as desirable as in 2011. or 2012

 

EDIT: fine maybe im wrong sheesh

 

too much bias

Edited October 23, 2015 by DragoonEagle

[sonseray]

I think Shimmers and Tinsels are bound to lose value every year when more are produced, as a matter of simple supply and demand. Even third gen tinsels/shimmers are quickly losing value when one of them used to trade for multiple CB metals. I think in another year or two, even the second gens will lose the massive amount of demand that they've retained so far.

[NotBambi]

I think Shimmers and Tinsels are bound to lose value every year when more are produced, as a matter of simple supply and demand. Even third gen tinsels/shimmers are quickly losing value when one of them used to trade for multiple CB metals. I think in another year or two, even the second gens will lose the massive amount of demand that they've retained so far.

Probably. Unless TJ chooses a different Prize for the next raffle. If that happens, I'm guessing that the owners of CB Shimmers and Tinsels will be focusing on getting 2G of the new breed and there will not be a lot left outside of that swapping market.

 

Copy/paste of my post in another thread:

- Coppers: I'm guessing that they will keep their trading value, in particular Verdigris and Rainbow. Why? Because they were released more than two years ago (May 2013) and they are still going strong, very strong.

- Almandines: I'm guessing that they will keep their trading value. Why? They are exclusively an Alpine breed; Alpine is, in general, the busiest biome. From a statistical point of view they are rarer than CB Golds that drop in every biome.

- Xenowyrms: I'm guessing that on the long run their "trading value" will decrease but not as much as Sprites or Blacks. More like Blusangs. Yes, their value is demand-fueled. But, they drop in several biomes with different sprites, that should keep the supply low enough to not make them less than uncommons.

Edited October 21, 2015 by NotBambi

[The_Bucket]

- Almandines: I'm guessing that they will keep their trading value. Why? They are exclusively an Alpine breed; Alpine is, in general, the busiest biome. From a statistical point of view they are rarer than CB Golds that drop in every biome.

Disagree. One little release (Lunar Heralds) that happened in both Alpine and Volcano and was relatively common changed Spessartines from being quite rare to mildy uncommon. A Coast/Volcano release (unlikely, I know) or just a caveblocker common Volcano release could easily upset the ratios and cause Almandines to start dropping more regularly. The way Pyralspites appear to be generated is by creating x amount of Pyrals in general, then distributing them among their three biomes. The less room there is in Coast and Volcano, the more will be shoved into Alpine.

[Gruff]

I think that the Xeno's will by and large remain strong ... for the most part. I think the volcano ( pyro ) will decrease the most, while the bright orange/blue/pink and other bright colors will remain strong.

 

The tinsels will fade.

 

Coppers I think will remain strong.

 

 

[NotBambi]

Disagree. One little release (Lunar Heralds) that happened in both Alpine and Volcano and was relatively common changed Spessartines from being quite rare to mildy uncommon. A Coast/Volcano release (unlikely, I know) or just a caveblocker common Volcano release could easily upset the ratios and cause Almandines to start dropping more regularly. The way Pyralspites appear to be generated is by creating x amount of Pyrals in general, then distributing them among their three biomes. The less room there is in Coast and Volcano, the more will be shoved into Alpine.

I guess time will tell.

Edit: just put a task in Outlook to check your prediction against mine on the 21st of October 2016.

And how do you explain that the Volcano is the 2nd busiest biome but the Pyrope is a common?

Edited October 22, 2015 by NotBambi

[kipper]

What is a black dragon worth with 8k clicks?

[DragonKing1337]

What is a black dragon worth with 8k clicks?

I think you mean views, either way, the number of clicks shouldn't really change a dragons value.

 

I think Almadines will eventually lose value as well, probably not by a lot, but I doubt they'll be as rare as they are now for long.

[sonseray]

Disagree. One little release (Lunar Heralds) that happened in both Alpine and Volcano and was relatively common changed Spessartines from being quite rare to mildy uncommon. A Coast/Volcano release (unlikely, I know) or just a caveblocker common Volcano release could easily upset the ratios and cause Almandines to start dropping more regularly. The way Pyralspites appear to be generated is by creating x amount of Pyrals in general, then distributing them among their three biomes. The less room there is in Coast and Volcano, the more will be shoved into Alpine.

Your theory may be correct, but I disagree about the value of the spessartines. There definitely aren't many being traded.

[Ha-Ki]

Spessartines are rare again, but there were a lot of them dropping (and being traded) after the lunar release when the biomes were still moving a lot.

 

Copy and pasting what I wrote before the old thread got merged:

 

My guess is: Coppers will stay about as rare as they are now. They do drop, rarely, but constantly. I think they were supposed to be like that - metals, but a bit more common than golds and silvers.

 

Xeno rarity is definitely user-driven, and I think they will go the same route the goldwyverns went - uncommon and pretty popular, but the point will come when everyone has their fill of them and they'll sit for a couple of refreshes before they get taken.

 

Now almadines are very interesting. I've recently seen a user argument with the number of breeds that drop in the biomes which also produce pyralspites. The basic line of argumentation was: The cave produces a number X of pyralspites to drop according to the ratios, and THEN distributes them to the biomes where they drop. As there are so many other breeds in the alpine and coast, most of these produced pyrals end up in the volcano. Now if that theory is right, all it takes to make almadines more common is a couple of new breeds in the volcano.

Edit: I was referring to this post by pinkgothic - I like that theory, makes a lot of sense to me.

[Windy]

I think Shimmers and Tinsels will continue losing value. They are already worthless above 3rd gen.

[olympe]

Hmm. Unless we get another metal flood, golds will become even more valuable.

 

Almandines will stay very valuabe. For one, they're rare (right now), for another, they're the only dragons in the cave with that brilliant shade of magenta/pink/whatever. Spessartines won't ever be in as high a demand, as they can be replaced in lineages by either Magis or Mageias.

 

Xenos, I think, will take the route of trios - their value will decrease over time, but they'll still stay in demand.

 

Coppers - I think that the current trend of Liver of Sulfur Coppers being the cheapest of the set will continue. Brown-colored dragons don't seem to be in high demand, after all. Plus, the Rainbow and Verdigris Coppers are much more awesome. (Not to mention that the color of the Verdigris is pretty unique, too.)

 

Tinsels and Shimmers will definitely continue to lose value (unless they're 2nd gen).

 

Everything else will probably just stay as it is, unless something happens to change value. (Like when alt vines and alt blacks were introduced, the value of CBs of both breeds skyrocketed, but eventually got back to normal again - after several years, that is. )

Edited October 22, 2015 by olympe

[Kiyoura]

I especially agree with the whole Shimmer/Tinsel losing values... and I actually hope a new prize dragon will be released. If not then I won't be too excited for the Raffle.

[jesterboohoo]

Hmm. Unless we get another metal flood, golds will become even more valuable.

 

Almandines will stay very valuabe. For one, they're rare (right now), for another, they're the only dragons in the cave with that brilliant shade of magenta/pink/whatever. Spessartines won't ever be in as high a demand, as they can be replaced in lineages by either Magis or Mageias.

 

Xenos, I think, will take the route of trios - their value will decrease over time, but they'll still stay in demand.

 

Coppers - I think that the current trend of Liver of Sulfur Coppers being the cheapest of the set will continue. Brown-colored dragons don't seem to be in high demand, after all. Plus, the Rainbow and Verdigris Coppers are much more awesome. (Not to mention that the color of the Verdigris is pretty unique, too.)

 

Tinsels and Shimmers will definitely continue to lose value (unless they're 2nd gen).

 

Everything else will probably just stay as it is, unless something happens to change value. (Like when alt vines and alt blacks were introduced, the value of CBs of both breeds skyrocketed, but eventually got back to normal again - after several years, that is. )

^ This exactly.

 

And I have to agree with kiyoura; I'm crossing my fingers for a new prize as well. Sorta tired of tinsels and shimmers. Time for something new.

[NotBambi]

Tinsels and Shimmers will definitely continue to lose value (unless they're 2nd gen).

My bad, I should have clarified that I was referencing 2G Prizes. IMHO, the value of 3G Prizes will keep decreasing. I see people asking for CB Metals for a 3G and my first reaction is "No Way, Jose" but who knows...

[Ha-Ki]

Almandines will stay very valuabe. For one, they're rare (right now), for another, they're the only dragons in the cave with that brilliant shade of magenta/pink/whatever. Spessartines won't ever be in as high a demand, as they can be replaced in lineages by either Magis or Mageias.

Interesting way of argumenting - that would imply that almadines will lose value when a new dragon with similar colors is released?

 

I'm not so sure whether lineage builders really have that much of an impact on values. To me, it rather seems that rarity makes people value things higher, and thus increases demand.