DC Moon Watch (Tracking Sonata Breeding and Eclipse Effects!)

[Shokomon]

Of course we could all be terribly wrong and silvers pop up out of nowhere...

 

Though that wouldn't make any sense.

[Kegluneq]

Some day or at some point both moons will share the same phase or have something in common. I let my imagination flow and wondering what would happen in these cases:

 

 

[CursedFlames]

Some day or at some point both moons will share the same phase or have something in common. I let my imagination flow and wondering what would happen in these cases:

 

 

I don't think Cirion should be that small, because the distance away from it combined with its smallness would make it appear tiny compared to Aurax.

[Kegluneq]

I don't think Cirion should be that small, because the distance away from it combined with its smallness would make it appear tiny compared to Aurax.

It's just a quick, random example of the sizes, we don't know the exact proportions of the Moons and Valkemare of course; proportions, distances from each other, etcetera. But you're right, in that image Cirion would be really small compared to Aurax.

 

Now that I think of it, I didn't think before of another 2 scenarios, let me open PS again and I'll get back >.<

[Ruby Eyes]

What's confusing me is that Cirion had 4 "waning crescent" days, but only 3 "waxing crescent" ones. Is Cirion an egg?

[Kegluneq]

What's confusing me is that Cirion had 4 "waning crescent" days, but only 3 "waxing crescent" ones. Is Cirion an egg?

There are moons with odd shapes after all

 

So, here's the other two scenarios that come to my mind:

 

 

[Ruby Eyes]

That would mean they're never to be seen at the same time, though.

[Kegluneq]

That would mean they're never to be seen at the same time, though.

My point is, I mean, the point of the theory, that since both moons are not in synch, the four elements of this theory: Sun, Valkemare, Aurax and Cirion, will reach those four positions where they'll be perfectly alligned.

 

What would that mean in those particular scenarios? No moonlight will be striking Valkemare, but I'm just thinking in how things would happen in a physical manner, adding lots of layers of complexity to how the moons, or rather, their light, affects or influence Lunar Heralds.

 

I'm even theorizing that the geographical location of Alpine, Desert and Volcano would, or even should, be a factor too, but that's not gonna happen. Although Valkemare is behaving more and more like a planet release after release, it's always going to be day or night at the same time in the entire Valkemare.

[Ruby Eyes]

Although Valkemare is behaving more and more like a planet release after release, it's always going to be day or night at the same time in the entire Valkemare.

Maybe the sun is actually a shiny sphere around Valkemare and its moons, and just switches itself off and on at specific times

[_Sin_]

I've read a few posts and would like some clarification. Some kind of pattern can be seen if considering only the status at 8PM, DC Time. Probably I'm missing something:

 

29-Aug to 31-Aug:

Aurax Waning Gibbous

Cirion Waning Crescent

Lunar eggs Gold

1-Sep:

Aurax Waning Crescent

Cirion New

Lunar eggs Bronze

2-Sep to 4-Sep:

Aurax Waning Crescent

Cirion Waxing Crescent

Lunar eggs Bronze

5-Sep to 7-Sep: (Guessing about 7-Sep)

Aurax Waning Crescent

Cirion Waxing Gibbous

Lunar eggs Indigo

8-Sep (guessing)

Aurax New? (How much longer can Aurax's phases be, compared with Earth?)

Cirion Full? (Cirion's phases lasting around 3 days?)

Lunar eggs Indigo?

9-Sep (guessing)

Aurax Waxing Crescent? (How much longer can Aurax's phases be, compared with Earth?)

Cirion Waning Gibbous? (Cirion's New/Full phases lasting around 1 day?)

Lunar eggs Silver?

 

Please poke holes on this

 

Note: double-posted to get some feedback.

[Grandmother_cathie]

My point is, I mean, the point of the theory, that since both moons are not in synch, the four elements of this theory: Sun, Valkemare, Aurax and Cirion, will reach those four positions where they'll be perfectly alligned.

 

What would that mean in those particular scenarios? No moonlight will be striking Valkemare, but I'm just thinking in how things would happen in a physical manner, adding lots of layers of complexity to how the moons, or rather, their light, affects or influence Lunar Heralds.

I believe that on those few times where you'd have one moon at "new" and the other moon, normally at a full stage, but eclipsed, you'd get Bronzes.

 

If the egg's color is dependent upon the moonlight hitting the mother at the time of conception, one could theorize that during a new moon with eclipse, there would be bronze eggs, and then when the eclipse is over any eggs produced would be the color of the now full moon.

 

 

[Millie_Azure]

Hmm. Eye-balling the data and fumbling around with my colour <-> phase theory, I suspect we'll get Aurax/gold lunar heralds again before we get whites/silvers. Possibly with a day of dark/bronze lunar heralds before the Aurax/gold drop.

 

Assuming it takes Aurax about five days to change to the 'next relevant' phase (which is a complete guess at this point), since it takes Cirion somewhere in the ballpark of two-ish, three-ish days to change phase, then we might be looking at this:

 

7th of September: Aurax dim (waxing-crescent-ish) | Cirion bright (waxing-gibbous-ish)

8th of September: Aurax dim (waxing-crescent-ish) | Cirion bright (waning-gibbous-ish)

9th of September: Aurax dim (waxing-crescent-ish) | Cirion bright (waning-gibbous-ish)

10th of September: Aurax dim (waxing-crescent-ish) | Cirion bright (waning-gibbous-ish)

11th of September: Aurax dim (waxing-crescent-ish) | Cirion dim (waning-crescent-ish) <-- dark/bronzes again!

12th of September: Aurax bright (waxing-gibbous-ish) | Cirion dim (waning-crescent-ish) <-- Aurax/gold again!

13th of September: Aurax bright (waxing-gibbous-ish) | Cirion dim (waning-crescent-ish)

14th of September: Aurax bright (waxing-gibbous-ish) | Cirion dim (waxing-crescent-ish)

15th of September: Aurax bright (waxing-gibbous-ish) | Cirion dim (waxing-crescent-ish)

16th of September: Aurax bright (waxing-gibbous-ish) | Cirion dim (waxing-crescent-ish)

17th of September: Aurax bright (waning-gibbous-ish) | Cirion bright (waxing-gibbous-ish) <-- white/silver starts here, though!

[...]

 

I honestly have no idea how likely that is to be accurate. I'm half asleep. But I do think Cirion isn't going to stay bright long enough to overlap with Aurax's bright phase in such a way that we'll get white/silvers next.

 

We'll see, I suppose!

 

[ Edit: Edited for clarity. ]

 

[ Edit II: Make that a bit more readable, for that matter. ]

Not sure about the exact timelines, but this is about what I'm expecting to happen. Aurax is just moving so slowly, and Cirion is moving so quickly. There's almost no chance that I can see of Aurax being Waxing Gibbous before Cirion is Waning Crescent. It makes me sad, because I really want silver... but yeah. Agree with this, for sure.

[Fiona]

Well, obviously the change isn't going to happen tonight. That makes Cirion's phase changes every 4 days if you consider New Moon and waxing crescent as one phase.

 

Aurax last changed phases on Sept. 1. That would be a phase change of 8 days if it changes tomorrow. What that would mean, if it happens that way, is that Aurax changes to new moon/waxing crescent (mostly dark) while Cirion is full/waning gibbous (moslty light) If that's the case perhaps instead of "both moons mostly light = silver" which you've theorized, it's "Cirion mostly light while Aurax is dark = silver" while "Aurax mostly light while Cirion mostly dark = golds"

 

We got golds while Aurax was more than 50% lit. We got bronzes and blues while Aurax was less than 50% lit. When bronzes dropped Cirion was also less than 50%. Cirion was 50% or more lit when blues dropped.

 

It's a theory anyway. Another theory I have is that all the colors will be equally obtainable. They'll drop an equal number of days. We just don't know which days yet.

[Millie_Azure]

"Cirion mostly light while Aurax is dark = silver"

 

This is the combination we currently have, and the eggs are a blue. If the moons change to their next phases, it really won't be a change. Waxing gibbous to wanning gibbous is essentially the same brightness. The only change is whether it is the eastern or western hemisphere that is lit. The same is true for waning crescent to waxing crescent.

 

So far...

 

When Aurax is more than 50% and Cirion is less than 50%, the eggs are gold.

 

When both moons are less than 50%, the eggs are brown.

 

When Cirion is more than 50% and Aurax is less than 50%, the eggs are blue.

 

The only combination left is both moons greater than 50%, and the only color left is silver. Reasonable deduction brings us to the conclusion that this will be the case. Looking at the current phases, I am doubtful this particular synchronization will occur this week.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Millie_Azure

[SullenCat]

This is the combination we currently have, and the eggs are a blue. If the moons change to their next phases, it really won't be a change. Waxing gibbous to wanning gibbous is essentially the same brightness. The only change is whether it is the eastern or western hemisphere that is lit. The same is true for waning crescent to waxing crescent.

 

So far...

 

When Aurax is more than 50% and Cirion is less than 50%, the eggs are gold.

 

When both moons are less than 50%, the eggs are brown.

 

When Cirion is more than 50% and Aurax is less than 50%, the eggs are blue.

 

The only combination left is both moons greater than 50%, and the only color left is silver. Reasonable deduction brings us to the conclusion that this will be the case. Looking at the current phases, I am doubtful this particular synchronization will occur this week.

What if all the light is coming from Cirion? e.g. New Aurax, Full Cirion.

[Fiona]

It's not exactly what we have now though. Right now Aurax is losing strength but it doesn't go dark until the next phase change. We're kind of assuming that will be tomorrow since we've had color changes every 4 days.

[SullenCat]

It's not exactly what we have now though. Right now Aurax is losing strength but it doesn't go dark until the next phase change. We're kind of assuming that will be tomorrow since we've had color changes every 4 days.

If you were replying to me... I know that is not we have now but was thinking that combination was left and could happen by tomorrow evening.

[dustpuppy]

What if all the light is coming from Cirion? e.g. New Aurax, Full Cirion.

Good question, we didn't have a full moon yet. I think a full Cirion would still result in blue eggs, and a full Aurax in gold eggs (but I could be wrong and both cases might give silver eggs).

[Lantean_Pegasus]

I just concocted a theory that sounds plausible to me, with the facts we have so far. Posted it in the release thread, but I'll copy it in here, because it fits the topic. What do you think of it ?

 

Cirion went from "new" to "waxing gibbous" in abot 3 days, 20 hours.

That would mean (if it has a regular orbit) that it takes about 15 days for it (+- a day) to do one full cycle. Quite the fast little runner, this one !

 

Aurax on the other hand has been waning ever since the 29th, without reaching new moon yet. Out of that more than 7 full days in a waning crescent. So in a regular orbit that would mean 28++ days for one full cycle. (Same as, or even a little slower than, our moon.)

 

That said - maybe the ratio is a conveniently exact "2 cycles of Cirion for 1 cycle of Aurax".

 

And if the silver Heralds really need both moons being gibbous to full, that would mean we'd still have to wait for quite a while to see them, going through the other colours again first.

 

Let me try to show what I mean. I'll start from a point where both moons are full and going to wane:

A stands for Aurax, C for Cirion, gib for gibbous, cre for crescent (waxing or waning doesn't matter)

 

A gib + C gib = Silver

A gib + C cre = Gold ----> we started in this window

(Aurax still waning, Cirion reached new moon here)

A cre + C cre = Bronze

A cre + C gib = Indigo/Blue ----> we are in this window now

(Aurax arrived at new moon here, Cirion is full)

A cre + C gib = Indigo/Blue

A cre + C cre = Bronze

(Aurax still waxing, Cirion at new moon)

A gib + C cre = Gold

A gib + C gib = Silver

(Aurax is full, having completed one cycle, Cirion is full after completing two cycles in the same time)

 

Each of these windows is about as long as the time between the release of Bronze and Indigo/Blue, that means 4 days.

That would amount to:

4d Gold

4d Bronze

8d Indigo/Blue

4d Bronze

4d Gold

8d Silver (starting at the 21st)

and back to the start

 

...and now I can't wait to see if that's right or rubbish !

Edited September 9, 2015 by Lantean_Pegasus

[Fiona]

That one makes sense to me, Lantean_Pegasus. Though... it means waiting for awhile longer for silver eggs. sadface.

 

However, considering things purely from a gameplay perspective, I'm not sure it makes sense to have us waiting for silver to drop. That's why, in all my speculating I've tried to see a way for the moonlight to fit gold->bronze->blue->silver in 4 day cycles. That seems the best fit from a gameplay viewpoint. From there it could make sense to reverse the cycle to silver->blue->bronze->gold.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Fiona BlueFire

[Shokomon]

At the moment, all the current projections hinge on figuring out Aurax's phase change, which seems to be longer than Earth's. If we can figure that out, we could predict better.

[olympe]

I just concocted a theory that sounds plausible to me, with the facts we have so far. Posted it in the release thread, but I'll copy it in here, because it fits the topic. What do you think of it ?

 

Cirion went from "new" to "waxing gibbous" in abot 3 days, 20 hours.

That would mean (if it has a regular orbit) that it takes about 15 days for it (+- a day) to do one full cycle. Quite the fast little runner, this one !

 

Aurax on the other hand has been waning ever since the 29th, without reaching new moon yet. Out of that more than 7 full days in a waning crescent. So in a regular orbit that would mean 28++ days for one full cycle. (Same as, or even a little slower than, our moon.)

 

That said - maybe the ratio is a conveniently exact "2 cycles of Cirion for 1 cycle of Aurax".

 

And if the silver Heralds really need both moons being gibbous to full, that would mean we'd still have to wait for quite a while to see them, going through the other colours again first.

 

Let me try to show what I mean. I'll start from a point where both moons are full and going to wane:

A stands for Aurax, C for Cirion, gib for gibbous, cre for crescent (waxing or waning doesn't matter)

 

A gib + C gib = Silver

A gib + C cre = Gold ----> we started in this window

(Aurax still waning, Cirion reached new moon here)

A cre + C cre = Bronze

A cre + C gib = Indigo/Blue ----> we are in this window now

(Aurax arrived at new moon here, Cirion is full)

A cre + C gib = Indigo/Blue

A cre + C cre = Bronze

(Aurax still waxing, Cirion at new moon)

A gib + C cre = Gold

A gib + C gib = Silver

(Aurax is full, having completed one cycle, Cirion is full after completing two cycles in the same time)

 

Each of these windows is about as long as the time between the release of Bronze and Indigo/Blue, that means 4 days.

That would amount to:

4d Gold

4d Bronze

8d Indigo/Blue

4d Bronze

4d Gold

8d Silver (starting at the 21st)

and back to the start

 

...and now I can't wait to see if that's right or rubbish !

That's what I think, too - although I had it simplified in my mind by dividing each moon's phases into "bright" (full and gibbous) and "dark" (crescent and new).

 

It's easier to figure out that way:

Aurax "bright" and Cirion "dark" => gold (like aurax)

Aurax "dark" and Cirion "dark" => bronze

Aurax "dark" and Cirion "bright" => blue/indigo (like Cirion)

Aurax "bright" and Cirion "bright" => silver (brightest color of all)

[Fiona]

But it could be argued that gold is brighter than silver. I don't know. I think we'll have to wait and see what the moons do tonight. Cirion, based on what we've seen so far, seems likely to be full. It will be the first full moon in the cycle that we've seen.

[NotBambi]

While several theories/speculations make perfect sense, I decide to be subjective and look for a speculation that allows me to hope that there will be Silvers tonight. Mostly because would be sad to read disappointed people.

So my speculation is that Aurax is linked to warm colors (like Gold or Bronze) and Cirion is linked to the remaining, Silver and Blue. So, I'm speculating that Cirion will be Full (and dominant against a New Aurax) and the eggs will be as cold-colored as possible: Silver

Edited September 9, 2015 by NotBambi

[pinkgothic]

Not sure about the exact timelines, but this is about what I'm expecting to happen. Aurax is just moving so slowly, and Cirion is moving so quickly. There's almost no chance that I can see of Aurax being Waxing Gibbous before Cirion is Waning Crescent. It makes me sad, because I really want silver... but yeah. Agree with this, for sure.

Well, the exact timeline I put up is definitely bust. S'what I get for posting hazy half-formed theories while sleepy.

 

I am super duper curious how the timing is going to work out. (I'm definitely still not anticipating silvers in the next few days, though, and have gone back to breeding duties and catching other things I still need.)

Edited September 9, 2015 by pinkgothic