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Shokomon

DC Moon Watch and Lunar Herald Theories

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What if all the light is coming from Cirion? e.g. New Aurax, Full Cirion.

 

This instance falls under "Cirion over 50% and Aurax less than 50% = Blue."

 

It says right in the description of these dragons, "When breeding, the amount of moonlight the parents receive from each moon will determine the color of the egg produced." Technically, eggs don't just appear out of thin air, CB eggs included. They've been "bred," too. This rule still applies. The only thing that matters, I'm hypothesizing, is how much light is coming from the moon.

 

It's not exactly what we have now though. Right now Aurax is losing strength but it doesn't go dark until the next phase change. We're kind of assuming that will be tomorrow since we've had color changes every 4 days.

 

No, it's not exactly, this is true, but I'm again hypothesizing that all that matter is the amount of light coming from each moon, Still, when Aurax changes to new, it will be less than 50% lit (0%!), and when Cirion changes to full, it will be more than 50% (100%!). In fact, in this case, the only light the dragons would be receiving would be blue. There would be zero influence from the gold moon at all. If what we have listed in the dragon's description is correction, the only option for these eggs is to remain blue.

 

A gib + C gib = Silver

A gib + C cre = Gold ----> we started in this window

(Aurax still waning, Cirion reached new moon here)

A cre + C cre = Bronze

A cre + C gib = Indigo/Blue ----> we are in this window now

(Aurax arrived at new moon here, Cirion is full)

A cre + C gib = Indigo/Blue

A cre + C cre = Bronze

(Aurax still waxing, Cirion at new moon)

A gib + C cre = Gold

A gib + C gib = Silver

(Aurax is full, having completed one cycle, Cirion is full after completing two cycles in the same time)

 

Yes! This exactly! Both moons, I think, must be gibbous in order to have silver! Agree!

 

At the moment, all the current projections hinge on figuring out Aurax's phase change, which seems to be longer than Earth's. If we can figure that out, we could predict better.

 

Truth. I think it's safe to say the prediction form in the tracking document is going to be correct. The key now is definitely going to be nailing down a calendar of when which eggs are available... I wish the time page hadn't been incorrect to start. We would know so much more information by know if it had been correct!

 

But it could be argued that gold is brighter than silver. I don't know. I think we'll have to wait and see what the moons do tonight.

 

I disagree, but we'll just have to see. You're correct there.

 

I think what's throwing a lot of people off is that silver is so often related Earth's moon. The thing we have to remember is neither of Valkemare’s moons are silver. One is gold (and we have a gold egg when Aurax is brighter) and one is blue (and we have a blue egg when Cirion is brighter). Since silver is definitely brighter than brown(bronze?), it makes sense, then, for the silver egg to appear when both moons are bright.

 

~~~

 

Whew! That was a lot of quoting. Here's hoping all the coding works the first time...

Edited by Millie_Azure

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Since Cirion is full and Aurax is new but the eggs stayed blue it looks like Lantean_Pegasus' theory could be correct.

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The following is 100% speculation!

 

Since we now have a full phase documented with correct times, I have made a prediction calendar to see if I could figure out when the silvers will arrive.

 

This is based off the hypothesis that Cirion's phases are 4 days each, and Aurax's phases are 8 days each. I have assumed without confirmed evidence that both moons' New and Full phases are only a single night. I have also assumed all moon phases are the same length, which again has not been confirmed.

 

All text in gold belongs to Aurax.

All text in blue belongs to Cirion.

 

Sept. 9 New - Full

Sept. 10 Waxing Crescent - Waning Gibbous

Sept. 11 Waxing Crescent - Waning Gibbous

Sept. 12 Waxing Crescent - Waning Gibbous

Sept. 13 Waxing Crescent - Waning Gibbous

Sept. 14 Waxing Crescent - Waning Crescent - Brown Eggs

Sept. 15 Waxing Crescent - Waning Crescent

Sept. 16 Waxing Crescent - Waning Crescent

Sept. 17 Waxing Crescent - Waning Crescent

Sept. 18 Waxing Gibbous - New --------------- Gold Eggs

Sept. 19 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 20 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 21 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 22 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 23 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Gibbous - Silver Eggs

Edited by Millie_Azure

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WE'VE GOT PHASE CHANGES! AND CONFIRMATION OF CONTINUED BLUE EGGS!

PINKGOTHIC!

Pinkgothic!

Your theory is right so far!

 

Also, lets' see if the above speculation is correct now that we have confirmed phase lengths.

-----

Info for later!

 

- Aurax takes 8 days to move from WaNing Crescent to New Moon.

- Cirion takes 4 days to move from WaXing Gibbous to Full Moon.

Aug 29, 2015 @ 12:00 AM EST/DragonCave (DC) to Sep 01, 2015 @ 7:59 PM EST/DC.

Aurax: Waning Gibbous

Cirion: Waning Crescent

CB Lunar eggs are Gold.

 

Sep 01, 2015 starting 8:00 PM EST/DC

Aurax: Waning Crescent*

Cirion: New*

CB Lunar eggs change from Gold to Bronze.

- The Gold egg drop lasted about 3 days and 17 hours.

* = TJ's post doesn't mention a phase change at the same time the new color drops, but we know the color change happened here. So, we assume the phase changed happened here too.

 

Sep 02, 2015 @ 12:00 AM EST/DC

Aurax: Waning Crescent

Cirion: New

CB Lunar eggs are Bronze.

 

Sep 03, 2015 @ 12:00 AM EST/DC to Sep 05, 2015 @ 7:59 PM EST/DC

Aurax: Waning Crescent**

Cirion: Waxing Crescent**

CB Lunar eggs are Bronze, and Bred Lunar eggs are Bronze.

** Exact time of change Unknown.

 

Sep 05, 2015 starting @ 8:00 PM EST/DC

Aurax: Waning crescent

Cirion: Waxing Gibbous

CB Lunar eggs have changed from Bronze to Blue/Indigo, and Bred Lunar eggs have changed from Bronze to Blue/Indigo.

- The Bronze egg drop lasted about 4 days.

 

Sep 05, 2015 @ 12:00 AM EST/DC to Sep 09, 2015 @ 7:59 PM EST/DC

Aurax: Waning crescent

Cirion: Waxing Gibbous

CB Lunar eggs are Blue/Indigo, and Bred Lunar eggs are Blue/Indigo.

 

Sep 09, 2015 starting 8:00 PM EST/DC

Aurax: New

Cirion: Full

CB Lunar eggs are Blue/Indigo, and Bred Lunar eggs are Blue/Indigo.

[Edited by Shokomon]

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@Millie_Azure:

I think it works better if you take out seperate days for full and new moon, they are just part of the crescent/gibbous phases.

 

Then the dates would go like this, if the change of colours keeps taking place at 8 pm DC time:

 

05. - 13. September: Indigo/Blue

13. - 17. September: Bronze

17. - 21. September: Gold

21. - 29. September: Silver

29. September - 03. October: Gold

03. - 07. October: Bronze

07. - 15. October: Indigo/Blue

Edited by Lantean_Pegasus

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That time table makes a lot of sense. And Silvers could arguably count as September release. wink.gif

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@Millie_Azure:

I think it works better if you take out seperate days for full and new moon, they are just part of the crescent/gibbous phases.

But the help/time page does show them on their own ...

 

(also, separate from latin separare (yes, that word is so old already))

 

All text in gold belongs to Aurax.

All text in blue belongs to Cirion.

 

...

Sept. 18 Waxing Gibbous - New --------------- Gold Eggs

Sept. 19 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 20 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 21 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 22 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Crescent

Sept. 23 Waxing Gibbous - Waxing Gibbous - Silver Eggs[/b]

I don't think this is entirely correct. See, in the past, Cirion only had 3 days of waxing crescent:

 

2015-08-29: Aurax: Waning gibbous, Cirion: Waning crescent

2015-08-30: Aurax: Waning gibbous, Cirion: Waning crescent

2015-08-31: Aurax: Waning gibbous, Cirion: Waning crescent

2015-09-01: Aurax: Waning gibbous, Cirion: Waning crescent

2015-09-02: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: New

2015-09-03: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: Waxing crescent

2015-09-04: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: Waxing crescent

2015-09-05: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: Waxing crescent

2015-09-06: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: Waxing gibbous

2015-09-07: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: Waxing gibbous

2015-09-08: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: Waxing gibbous

2015-09-09: Aurax: Waning crescent, Cirion: Waxing gibbous

2015-09-10: Aurax: New, Cirion: Full

 

If Cirion follows a 16-day cycle, it should be:

 

2015-09-11 Waning gibbous

2015-09-12 Waning gibbous

2015-09-13 Waning gibbous

2015-09-14 Waning crescent (aka halfmoon, third quarter)

2015-09-15 Waning crescent

2015-09-16 Waning crescent

2015-09-17 Waning crescent

2015-09-18 New

2015-09-19 Waxing crescent

2015-09-20 Waxing crescent

2015-09-21 Waxing crescent

2015-09-22 Waxing gibbous (aka halfmoon, first quarter)

2015-09-23 Waxing gibbous

2015-09-24 Waxing gibbous

2015-09-25 Waxing gibbous

2015-09-26 Full

(basically, Silver eggs one day earlier)

Edited by Ruby Eyes

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But the help/time page does show them on their own ...

 

(also, separate from latin separare (yes, that word is so old already))

The help page does show them, yes. I only meant they don't actually have a separate day between the different crescent/gibbous phases, but belong to one of them, taking up one of the four/eight days that each one of those lasts. (Just as you wrote it up.)

 

And thanks for pointing out the typo. It was just a typo, though, I know where the word comes from. wink.gif (And I'm that much of a Dinosaur already that I actually don't marvel at words being that old, rather the other way around. There are so many words that are still so similar to their Roman/Greek/Germanic/whatever origin, especially in the English language.)

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It's just one of my pet peeve typoes smile.gif

 

I've handicrafted a slightly more visual "calendar" of some sort (the moon phases at least are pixels gently pushed in my mspaint), with egg drop observations:

http://thedragonlayer.proboards.com/thread/3675/moon-phases

Still filling in the predictions ...

 

So what I see is: we might have 8 straight days of blue eggs, surrounded by 4 days front and back each of bronze eggs, surrounded by 4 days front and back each golden eggs, and 8 straight days of silver eggs. Generally, the only day for which I'm *sure* will drop silver ones is when both moons are full, but probability for the other 7 days around that is pretty high, too.

Edited by Ruby Eyes

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It's just one of my pet peeve typoes smile.gif

 

I've handicrafted a slightly more visual "calendar" of some sort (the moon phases at least are pixels gently pushed in my mspaint), with egg drop observations:

http://thedragonlayer.proboards.com/thread/3675/moon-phases

Still filling in the predictions ...

 

So what I see is: we might have 8 straight days of blue eggs, surrounded by 4 days front and back each of bronze eggs, surrounded by 4 days front and back each golden eggs, and 8 straight days of silver eggs. Generally, the only day for which I'm *sure* will drop silver ones is when both moons are full, but probability for the other 7 days around that is pretty high, too.

Oooohhhh!!!!! That's a nice chart! I wish I could take a picture to add to the thread. I will put a link though. Though, you should probably remove the half moons, since they aren't included in the DC phases for some reason.

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WE'VE GOT PHASE CHANGES! AND CONFIRMATION OF CONTINUED BLUE EGGS!

PINKGOTHIC!

Pinkgothic!

Your theory is right so far!

My theory and everyone else's first instinct. laugh.gif It's really not much of a theory ownership.

 

As for timing, for what it's worth, I'm currently inclined to believe Ruby Eyes' assessment and am planning around that schedule. smile.gif Thanks for making it, Ruby Eyes!

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@Shokomon: They are totally included - as the following phase. If your browser shows you alt texts, you could see tooltips on these saying "waxing gibbous (first quarter)" and "waning crescent (third quarter)" - I basically added these to display the symmetry.

 

@pinkgothic: I hope it proves useful smile.gif

Edited by Ruby Eyes

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We can't know for sure until we actually experience it, but it looks right to me. At least, it follows the current favored theory, which so far is holding up under actual experience:

 

Cirion's orbit 16 days long.

Aurax's orbit 32 days long. (Exactly 2x Cirion's)

 

>50% Cirion, <50% Aurax = Blue

<50% Cirion, >50% Aurax = Gold

<50% Cirion, <50% Aurax = Brown

>50% Cirion, >50% Aurax = Silver

 

 

That is what most of us are saying atm.

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@Rubyeyes: For some reason, my Chrome won't let me see alt-texts... So, I didn't see what you noted. DC skipped over the last quarter for Aurax and the first quarter for Cirion, which is why I mentioned that maybe the calendar shouldn't have those symbols on them.

 

I think I'm eventually going to make a "Current theory" Section for this thread...

 

In other news, I was just thinking about how the phase change between Cirion's Waning Gibbious to Waning Crescent doesn't match up to Cirion's Waning Cresent to New Moon phase when I thought of something, what if the the New moon or Full Moon phase is counted as a part of the following Crescent/Gibbous phase?

- So say the New Moon or Full Moon phases do last 24 hours, then the progression of the phases for Cirion are like this;

 

08/29/15 ---> 09/01/15 ---> 09/02/15 ---> 09/05/15 ---> 09/09/15

-- 12:00 AM ------- 8:00 PM ------- 8:00 PM* --------- 8:00PM -------- 8:00 PM ---

Waning Crescent --- New ----- Waxing Crescent --- Waxing Gibbous ----- Full

--- [3 days, 20 hrs] ---|--- [24 hours] ----|---- [3 days] ------|----- [4 days] ----|---

*= estimation as we don't have a confirmed time for that period

 

Which doesn't make sense as the time between Waxing Gibbous and Full Moon is longer than the time between Waxing Crescent and Waxing Gibbous (excluding the first phase change from waning gibbous to new as that's when we started watching phases).

 

But if the New Moon counts towards the following Crescent phase, the time change matches up like this:

 

08/29/15 ---> 09/01/15 ---> 09/02/15 ---> 09/05/15 ---> 09/09/15

-- 12:00 AM ------- 8:00 PM ------- 8:00 PM* --------- 8:00PM -------- 8:00 PM ---

Waning Crescent --- New -and- Waxing Crescent --- Waxing Gibbous ----- Full

--- [3 days, 20 hrs] ---|--------------- [4days] --------------|---------- [4 days] ----|---

*= estimation as we don't have a confirmed time for that period

 

Then the numbers match up better.

 

(AKA Shokomon spends too much time analyzing things.)

 

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Pft. Fringe group browsers ...

 

Those symbols stay there. I added some more text though.

Edited by Ruby Eyes

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Something aside from this, is it me or the moons rotate/orbit against each other?

Edited by Kegluneq

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Something aside from this, is it me or the moons rotate/orbit against each other?

I think the only way that could be proved was if we could see a visual of them - does the progression of light move right to left on both like Earth's moon, or does one have 1st quarter lighting up the left side instead? Unless I'm forgetting something about basic astronomy, there's no way to tell just by orbit period.

 

The reason they're so far diverged right now is just timing, not direction.

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Moon watch report. At 8:00 precisely Aurax changed to Waxing crescent and Cirion changed to waning gibbous.

 

So, both new and full moon stages lasted exactly 24 hours.

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Moon watch report. At 8:00 precisely Aurax changed to Waxing crescent and Cirion changed to waning gibbous.

 

So, both new and full moon stages lasted exactly 24 hours.

NICE! I'll update the 2nd post in a bit. I'm adding something to that post actually. before the phases changed actually. Second Post Updated! And with a new Current Theory Section!

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You could probably trim down your list of theories in your list of general theories. We know for example that Aurax and Cirion do not share the same phases.

 

Cirion is now only days short of a full cycle. We can say with relative certainty that it's rotation is 16 days, based on the fact that new moon plus waxing crescent lasted 4 days together. Therefore full moon and waning gibbous should also be 4 days together.

 

We can also say with slightly less certainty that Aurax's rotation is 2x that of Cirion, since the new moon phase of Aurax lasted exactly one day just as Cirion's did.

 

We know that both bred and cave eggs are the same color during the same phase. We know that 3, 4 and 5 on your list are not true.

 

ETA: the value of editing out stuff we know not to be true makes the current theories and observations easier to read and understand. More people will be able to understand where we're going and be able to contribute valuable data.

Edited by Fiona BlueFire

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I made a banner because I felt like doing so.

 

user posted image

 

[url=https://forums.dragcave.net/index.php?showtopic=170693][img=https://i.imgur.com/Fj1Qliu.jpg][/url]

 

Feel free to add it into the thread or put it in your signature! I would be delighted! smile.gif

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@ Fiona BlueFire: I'll eventually make the edits you recommended to the theories section. Maybe I'll separate the general theories section into bits, and add a "Debunked Theories" Section too. Done! What do you think?

 

Also,

I made a banner because I felt like doing so.

 

user posted image

 

[url=https://forums.dragcave.net/index.php?showtopic=170693][img=https://i.imgur.com/Fj1Qliu.jpg][/url]

 

Feel free to add it into the thread or put it in your signature! I would be delighted! smile.gif

IT'S BEAUTIFUL! THANK YOU!

It's kinda big for my sig though... I'll put it in the thread opening post though!

 

Thank you again!

Edited by Shokomon

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It looks better, Shokomon. Easier to follow what's going on.

 

Also, just checked on the moon phases. As we expected, they're the same as yesterday.

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@ Fiona BlueFire: I'll eventually make the edits you recommended to the theories section. Maybe I'll separate the general theories section into bits, and add a "Debunked Theories" Section too. Done! What do you think?

 

Also,

 

IT'S BEAUTIFUL! THANK YOU!

It's kinda big for my sig though... I'll put it in the thread opening post though!

 

Thank you again!

Thank you so much!

 

Sigh, I don't know why the banner looks so bad compared to the full size one I made. When I shrunk it down in imgur the sparkly effect I did to the words made them really blurry.

 

I changed the font to a more solid one and removed the blurry effects and STILL it's quite blurry but thankfully less.

 

user posted image

[url=http://ow.ly/S6UfJ][img=https://i.imgur.com/G6P2ede.jpg][/url]

 

This is the original, full size version. Looks so much better doesn't it?

 

https://i.imgur.com/8N0hxbS.jpg

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*wakes up in the middle of the night unable to sleep*

@Fiona BlueFire: Thank you very much for updating! Good to know. Glad the post is clearer!

 

Thank you so much!

 

Sigh, I don't know why the banner looks so bad compared to the full size one I made. When I shrunk it down in imgur the sparkly effect I did to the words made them really blurry.

 

I changed the font to a more solid one and removed the blurry effects and STILL it's quite blurry but thankfully less.

 

user posted image

[url=http://ow.ly/S6UfJ][img=https://i.imgur.com/G6P2ede.jpg][/url]

 

This is the original, full size version. Looks so much better doesn't it?

 

https://i.imgur.com/8N0hxbS.jpg

Also, there wasn't anything wrong with the banner before, though this one is much clearer. I merely made the comment because I already have bunch of stuff in my sig, and the banner gets buried. I'll add this one too! More options is better!

Edit: OH! And that big pic looks like it could be a really nice wallpaper! WOW!

 

Edit2: For Later! To be added to opening posts!

Well, from what's going on, I'm on the side of bronze being up next.

As far as I can make out currently, lunar cycle lengths (in days) are going to be thus:

 

user posted image

Red numbers are unconfirmed but I am extrapolating from available data.

 

That means there are only certain combinations of phases available, and the colour chart will be something like this:

user posted image

 

This is pretty much the same info that pinkgothic has laid out, but more visual

Also it is easier to see that

Both moons big (full/gibbous) - silver

Both moons small (new/cresent) - bronze

One big/One small - colour of big moon (blue/gold for Cirion/Aurox respectively)

 

Basically, 8pm on the 13th we should get bronze again if the theory stands.

Aren't these diagrams nice too?

Edited by Shokomon

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