Xenowyrm breeding pattern

[Dark_Angel12345]

so, has anyone had any successful swallowtail x Xeno breedings? just tried 2 and got back to back refusals.

I got a successful one with an astrapi as well.

[lilch]

I've had two successes, one with Astrapi and one with Gaia.

good!! makes me feel better.

[Rubin]

Gah. Breeding those Xenos isn't easy. I have 6 adults now and got 3 eggs, two complete refusals and 1 no egg.

 

Rubin, if that theory is correct then (provided a xeno egg is breed) the odds wouldn't be even distributed between following the xeno parent and following the other partners biome.

 

I mean with Astrapi we have 8 Xeno eggs that are not from an Alpine partner and only one isn't true to species, same with Thalassa (okay no note for the sweetling biome so lets say 7 Xeno eggs and only one not true to form)

 

With Mageia we have 10 with non desert mates and only 2 not true to form.

 

With Chrono we have 16 with non forest mates and 5 not true to form

 

Gaia 13 non jungle and 3 not true to form

 

Pyro 12 non vulcan and 2 not true to form

I never said the outcome was evenly spread. I do suspect that it is much more likely to get the Xeno to breed true. Right now the numbers are skewed anyway because with the Xenos being new they are way more likely to produce Xeno eggs than eggs from the other parent breed.

 

 

[lilch]

I never said the outcome was evenly spread. I do suspect that it is much more likely to get the Xeno to breed true. Right now the numbers are skewed anyway because with the Xenos being new they are way more likely to produce Xeno eggs than eggs from the other parent breed.

actually not true. I've seen a number of people talking (complaining) about them coming thru as the other breed.

[Fly-by-Night]

actually not true. I've seen a number of people talking (complaining) about them coming thru as the other breed.

I haven't been on DC THAT long, but I daresay that people complaining about undesired breeding results does not tell us ANYTHING about ratios.

Rubin is right, it's too early to tell.

[Ruby Eyes]

That's a question of rations, isn't it? If we see it like Rubin and assume we have the same probability for each category, there'd be a 33.33 % chance of the Xeno breeding true ...

Eh, any process with a *chance* of different possible outcomes is random, which means you have to expect all of these results at some point. The only thing is how skewed those chances are in a certain direction, which we don't know yet - Rubin's theory is still just that: a theory, we have no confirmation. I wouldn't dare to do *any* math with that.

[Fly-by-Night]

Eh, any process with a *chance* of different possible outcomes is random, which means you have to expect all of these results at some point. The only thing is how skewed those chances are in a certain direction, which we don't know yet - Rubin's theory is still just that: a theory, we have no confirmation. I wouldn't dare to do *any* math with that.

Which shows you just how bad I am with Math - I force it to do stuff it cannot do.

Yeah, I know we can't really do anything with it. I just meant to say that different ways of looking at the same theory (like Rubin's) could affect ratios to a great extent.

[Laura-Lana]

That's a question of rations, isn't it? If we see it like Rubin and assume we have the same probability for each category, there'd be a 33.33 % chance of the Xeno breeding true (not considering refusals / no interests / no egg):

 

Situation 2: Xeno x Non-Xeno (Cave):

 

Outcome 1: the Xeno breeds true

Outcome 2: you get an egg from the Non-Xeno breed

Outcome 3: you get a random egg from the other 5 Xeno types

 

If we just say there's two categories, non-Xeno breed OR any Xeno (with no bias towards breeding true), the probability for the Xeno breeding true is different (either around 8%, if we assign 50 % to the Non-Xeno breed and 50 to all Xenos taken together, or 14 % if Non-Xeno is as probable as any Xeno breed).

I might be wrong, though; Maths has never been my strong point.

I think the question of if its a xeno egg or a non xeno egg is determined like with every other breeding pair and depends on the ratios on the cave.

I think we can savely ignore that aspect and focus on the Xeno eggs.

 

The point is the ratio between breeding true to form and being dependant of the biome of the mate seems closer to 3:1 than to 1:1 odds and that is allowing for the fact that if an egg follows a 'cave' parents biome it has a 1/6 chance to be from the xeno parents biome.

[VixenDra]

In short, I bred 4 same type Xenowyrm couples, 3 pairs gave their own breed, 1 gave another breed.

All were bred one right after another, so there is no way the time of the day mattered.

 

I'll shorten the form, since there are no other options because all are bred within type.

 

Xenowyrm type: Mageia

Mate: Mageia

-

Result: Mageia

 

 

Xenowyrm type: Gaia

Mate: Gaia

-

Result: Gaia

 

 

Xenowyrm type: Pyro

Mate: Pyro

-

Result: Pyro

 

 

Xenowyrm type: Chrono

Mate: Chrono

-

Result: Pyro :/

 

 

When my 2 other couples grow up, I might update.

But atm it looks like there is some chance for biome/elemental affinity but there is also a, maybe smaller, chance for a random.

Edited July 3, 2015 by VixenDra

[Rubin]

The point is the ratio between breeding true to form and being dependant of the biome of the mate seems closer to 3:1 than to 1:1 odds and that is allowing for the fact that if an egg follows a 'cave' parents biome it has a 1/6 chance to be from the xeno parents biome.

Actually I have seen way more Xenos with 'Cave' parents breeding true than not. There is that one GoN breeding in the spreadsheet, and the Gaia Ruby Eyes posted earlier.

 

However, we still have to keep in mind that the sheet probably doesn't correctly reflect ALL the breedings that were made since the Xenos started growing up but only accounts for a very small percentage.

 

 

That and, as Ruby Eyes pointed out, it's still just a theory. I could just as well be miles off target, which we won't know for sure until Birdz either confirms or denies it.

[Lastalda]

This is all I can contribute so far:

Xenowyrm type: Pyro

Gender: Female

-

Mate: Brute

Biome: Alpine

Elemental affinity: unknown

Mana: unknown

-

Result: Pyro

 

(the reverse-gender combo refused. )

 

 

Xenowyrm type: Astrapi

Gender: Female + Male

-

Mate: Skywing

Biome: Coast

Elemental affinity: Air

Mana: Change

-

Result: Astrapi

 

 

Xenowyrm type: Chrono

Gender: Female

-

Mate: Striped River

Biome: Coast

Elemental affinity: Water?

Mana: ?

-

Result: Chrono

 

So basically, all four that gave eggs bred true (2 Astrapi, one Pyro, one Chrono) even though bred to mates from other biomes.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Lastalda

[Laura-Lana]

 

And how do you propose to check the validy of that theory if not with mathematics? Provided the data collected so far is correct, I think we can say that while it's possible Ruby's theory is correct if it is our statistics show it's highly unlikly that the

breed true to form/follow the mates biome is 1:1.

 

So either her theory is incorrect or the odds favour the breeding true to form thing.

 

There is no certainy in statistics but the size of our sample is big enough to conclude that one already with better statistic significance than many other problems.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Laura-Lana

[Ruby Eyes]

@Rubin: I think it's a pretty solid theory, so far! All evidence available points to it.

 

There is another thing to throw into those equations:

 

They are 1 breed (obviously), and the biomes are not evenly filled with breeds. My assumption (yes, another theory) is that the chance at finding Xenos will be higher in the Desert and the Volcano than anywhere else (look at Pyralspites: you find more Pyropes than Almandines or Spessartines).

That means, we would have more CB Mageias and Pyros than the others, at some point.

 

So, do you think the Xeno ratios to each other will have any influence on the chance for each, with the potentially random breedings? Do you think they are even measured that way? Would that make getting Mageias and Pyro from breedings more difficult?

[Ylvanne]

Updated everything!

*faints* x________x

[prpldrgnfr]

Xenowyrm type: Astrapi

Gender: Male

-

Mate: Astrapi

 

-

Result: Thalassas

[birdzgoboom]

Well, looking through the spreadsheet I see nothing that contradicts the theory. I think we have to distinguish between three different situations:

 

 

Situation 1: Xeno x Non-Xeno (regular biome):

 

Outcome 1: the Xeno breeds true

Outcome 2: you get an egg from the Non-Xeno breed

Outcome 3: you get the Xeno corresponding to the Non-Xeno's biome

 

 

Situation 2: Xeno x Non-Xeno (Cave):

 

Outcome 1: the Xeno breeds true

Outcome 2: you get an egg from the Non-Xeno breed

Outcome 3: you get a random egg from the other 5 Xeno types

 

 

Situation 3: Xeno x Xeno:

 

This seems to be completely random, like it is with the Stripes

 

 

Of course I might also be completely wrong, but this is my theory so far.

You're so close.

The only one that's wrong is situation 3. None of their breeding patterns are complete randomness.

 

See, I knew I wouldn't have to tell anyone what it was. You guys are smart, I knew you could figure it out....

[Rubin]

@Rubin: I think it's a pretty solid theory, so far! All evidence available points to it.

 

There is another thing to throw into those equations:

 

They are 1 breed (obviously), and the biomes are not evenly filled with breeds. My assumption (yes, another theory) is that the chance at finding Xenos will be higher in the Desert and the Volcano than anywhere else (look at Pyralspites: you find more Pyropes than Almandines or Spessartines).

That means, we would have more CB Mageias and Pyros than the others, at some point.

 

So, do you think the Xeno ratios to each other will have any influence on the chance for each, with the potentially random breedings? Do you think they are even measured that way? Would that make getting Mageias and Pyro from breedings more difficult?

I really really hope it won't come to that though I fear that what happened to the Pyralspites might indicate a high risk of at least the Alpine and Coast variants ending up hard to get.

 

I'll keep my fingers crossed that they are common enough for that not to happen.

 

 

 

@Birdz: Well I haven't seen enough Xeno x Xeno pairings to make a proper guess regarding any pattern, but it seems to me that there is a higher likelyhood of getting either parent variety than one of the other ones.

 

In any case I'm all kinds of happy I wasn't too far off

[silver_tiger]

Oh wow, so it's just like the Coppers, eh? Well other than Xeno x Xeno breedings. That's so cool! We figured it out, haha.

[lilysally]

Disappointed...

Same combination, different result...

I wanted to make this into a lineage...

http://dragcave.net/lineage/S4Kq4

 

Got two no interests and this, which I like very much

http://dragcave.net/lineage/VF9g3

Sorry to repeat this post, I'm no good at filling in forms etcetera, but

 

On that Google form you have listed male Mageia x female Spessartine = Thalassa

 

but my combination is female Mageia x male Spessartine = Mageia

 

just thought it'sinteresting and might have been overlooked

Edited July 4, 2015 by lilysally

[Khas]

Xenowyrm type: Thalassa

Gender: Female

-

Mate: Flamingo

Biome: Coast

Elemental affinity: Earth

Mana: Creation

-

Result: Thalassa

 

 

 

 

Xenowyrm type: Mageia

Gender: Female

-

Mate: Magma

Biome: Cave

Elemental affinity: Fire

Mana: Destruction

-

Result: Chronos

 

Edited July 3, 2015 by Khas

[Ruby Eyes]

Sorry to repeat this post, I'm no good at filling in forms etcetera, but

 

On that Google form you have listed male Mageia x female Spessartine = Thalassa

 

but my combination is female Mageia x male Spessartine = Mageia

 

just thought it'sinteresting and might have been overlooked

That fits the "either Xeno's biome or mate's biome" part

[purplehaze]

In the interest of science I just bred two Xeno x Xeno pair -- not my intended pairings, but what was available at this moment.

 

Xenowyrm type: Chrono

Gender: Male

 

Mate: Mageia

 

Result: Mageia

 

And my Thalassa male refused my Astrapi female.

[Ylvanne]

Sorry to repeat this post, I'm no good at filling in forms etcetera, but

 

On that Google form you have listed male Mageia x female Spessartine = Thalassa

 

but my combination is female Mageia x male Spessartine = Mageia

 

just thought it'sinteresting and might have been overlooked

I guess I skipped over yours. If it wasn't on a form, I probably didn't see it because there were too much to fill and I was checking things as fast as I could.

 

There's another combination that gave a Thalassa. I added yours now. ^^

[Daydreamer09]

So I doubled back through and took a look at the breedings on the spreadsheet.

Xeno x Xeno baby following a Xeno parent:

8/12 66.7%

 

So there is a good chance of staying true as well, with a chance of a different type.

eta: fixed omitted-word typo

 

Also here's an update to the stats on how true the Xeno babies are to a Xeno parent based off the spreadsheet.

For anyone who wants to see the score thus far.

 

Astrapi------18/21-----85.7%

Thalassa----19/21-----90.5%

Mageia------16/18-----88.9%

Chrono------20/28-----71.4%

Gaia---------17/21-----81%

Pyro---------20/22-----90.9%

 

Overall------110/121---90.9%

 

**edited to take into account Xeno eggs following secondary listed xeno mate and counted them for the secondary parent's breed.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Daydreamer09

[Ruby Eyes]

Does that number include the same-biome mates?