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Odeen

American Pharoah WINS the Triple Crown!

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So American Pharoah (sic ;-wink.gif just pulled off an easy victory over the slop in the Preakness Stakes, meaning he is 2/3 of the way toward winning the Triple Crown for the first time since Affirmed in 1978. As an avid horse racing fan, I can't help but hope that he passes the test of the champion and wins, but I would also like to discuss the race realistically as well.

 

Who do you think will be coming back to challenge him? Can he go the distance? Does Victor Espinoza have the skill and experience now to successfully navigate the Belmont? We have 3 weeks to sit on our hands - it's theorycrafting time!

Edited by Odeen

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I missed this week's race, but I saw him take the Kentucky Derby. That was a nice win. smile.gif What about last year though? California Chrome, didn't he win two out of the three races last year as well?

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I missed this week's race, but I saw him take the Kentucky Derby. That was a nice win. smile.gif What about last year though? California Chrome, didn't he win two out of the three races last year as well?

He did, but he didn't have his usual kick in the Belmont. If I remember right he sustained a minor injury breaking out of the starting gate and ended up second.

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The Belmont is always the big test for horses. It's a longer distance field; one which isn't as commonly run anymore as it used to be (i.e. the horses aren't used to it or bred for it). Horses that don't win in the first two actually often have a better chance in the Belmont because they might be better at longer distances and just didn't have what it takes to get up to speed in the mid-distance races. I always love when a good closer wins the Derby, because then I hope there's a chance for a Triple Crown. Pharoah is a leader (and wow, what a nice one). I'm not sure how well that will hold in the Belmont. We will see.

 

It's also a bit more common to enter horses who have not run in the Derby or Preakness, meaning that the Belmont has more fresh horses entered than in past decades. They're coming off of two big races. Horses today are bred and trained more for a big bang and less stamina. They used to be raced every week or every other week, not just the biggest races. Breeders do a lot to sell rather than to race outright, and looking for a quick win and a quick sale, in my opinion, has hurt the overall chances for a Triple Crown winner. Horses are bred lighter than they used to be, meaning they break down easier. Sure, you can get some incredible runs out of them, as long as you don't push them too hard, but the Triple Crown requires pushing hard. It's a different philosophy.

 

I do really like Espinoza as a jockey, and I think he has what it takes. I HOPE American Pharoah does, too. I really want to see a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime! Haha! There have been a lot of horses who have won the first two and failed to win the Belmont, though.

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He did, but he didn't have his usual kick in the Belmont. If I remember right he sustained a minor injury breaking out of the starting gate and ended up second.

Aw, I didn't hear about that. Hopefully the injury wasn't too bad. sad.gif So, the last race is in three weeks. I'm hoping he does take the crown. I'd like to see it be done. I don't really know the endurance and the skills of the other horses, but if he can win two of them so far, then hey, why not? happy.gif

 

ETA:

 

@harlequinraven - I adore that black kitten avi of yours. So cute. wub.gif

Edited by Syiren

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Pharoah is a leader (and wow, what a nice one). I'm not sure how well that will hold in the Belmont. We will see.

He does also have breeding for stamina though - his grandsire won the Belmont, and as shown in the Derby he has very deep reserves of energy to keep going even when being challenged late in a race. I know the Derby pace was slow, but every time Firing Line tried to reel him in he just gave more and that in itself says a lot about a horse's heart.

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He does also have breeding for stamina though - his grandsire won the Belmont, and as shown in the Derby he has very deep reserves of energy to keep going even when being challenged late in a race. I know the Derby pace was slow, but every time Firing Line tried to reel him in he just gave more and that in itself says a lot about a horse's heart.

That is true, but again, he's coming off of two mid-distance races. None of his races have been long distance. It's not so much the breed I am worried about for him as the experience running long distance. He very well might have it in him, but I'm not getting my hopes up without having seen a result on long distance.

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That is true, but again, he's coming off of two mid-distance races. None of his races have been long distance. It's not so much the breed I am worried about for him as the experience running long distance. He very well might have it in him, but I'm not getting my hopes up without having seen a result on long distance.

Pretty sure practically no horses that run the Belmont have ever run a 1.5 mile race, and most of them never will again. It's a true stakes distance and the US doesn't run many of those. It's a challenge to keep in mind - that's why the Belmont is the test of the champion - but it isn't like every other triple crown hopeful was not in the same exact boat.

 

Eleven horses DID turn around and win the Belmont after taking two mid-distance races, most (if not all) of them never having run more than a mile and a quarter in their lives. I've seen 7 horses go 2/3 and fail just since I started watching, so I know not to get romantic about a horse's chances. What I want to know is people's opinions on whether or not Pharoah has the breeding and the heart to go the distance, since we can't look at experience.

 

After all, he'd never run a muddy course in his life either, and yesterday he waltzed through the slop like a pro mud wrestler when other good horses (looking at you Firing Line) wilted embarrassingly.

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Honestly, I didn't like the Kentucky Derby at all. I think the track was favouring speed all day, and it helped the favourites big time.

AP, Firing Line and Dortmund were 1-2-3 from the first turn (though not in that order) and no one ever came close running for home.

 

AP actually has won on a muddy course, the Rebel Stakes in March, and he's done it in exactly the same fashion. I think a muddy Preakness day certainly didn't hurt his chances wink.gif still, it was a good race by AP.

 

For the Belmont, I think AP has the heart to win it. He's done nothing but winning, and I think he'll put up a good fight if someone challenges him.

If he gets a good trip, I honestly think he'll win the TC, and I would be very happy for the horse (and to see a TC winner in my life).

Some horses that I wouldn't be sad if they won are Frosted, Madefromlucky and Conquest Curlinate (if they'll run).

But I thought the same about California Chrome last year, and then Matterhorn stepped on his hoof which, in my opinion, cost him his firing late kick and therefore the race.

Edited by Razalin

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Pretty sure practically no horses that run the Belmont have ever run a 1.5 mile race, and most of them never will again. It's a true stakes distance and the US doesn't run many of those. It's a challenge to keep in mind - that's why the Belmont is the test of the champion - but it isn't like every other triple crown hopeful was not in the same exact boat.

That was exactly my point in my original post. Long distance races aren't common at all anymore. They used to be a lot more common, which (among the other things I mentioned) is why Triple Crown winners came easier earlier on in the history of the three races.

 

I'm not saying he won't do it. I'm saying the odds are stacked against ANY horse, and horses who win in the mid-distance first two legs of the Triple Crown statistically have a disadvantage.

 

As Razalin said, he has run a muddy track before. I think he's a strong contender, but I'm not getting my hopes up until I see him start, at the very least.

Edited by harlequinraven

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Of course the odds are heavily stacked against any horse. That's why people actually care about the distinction. I made this thread, knowing how hard it is to win the triple crown, so people could discuss what's working for and against Pharoah's favor in his particular quest, and "it's really hard in general" isn't exactly informative. =P

 

It's also okay not to get your hopes up. I'm not convinced he's going to win either, but there's still a lot more to talk about.

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That push at the end of the derby makes me think he has some unexplored potential in distance races. I know little of his contenders at Belmont, but I remain optimistic. American Pharoah and Espinoza are a fantastically in synch team.

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Yeah people made a big deal about how much Espinoza used the crop in the Derby, so I had to have a bit of a giggle when he hand rode Pharoah to a 7 length victory in the Preakness. He definitely showed a lot of guts holding off Firing Line, which is going to be invaluable if he has any hope of lasting through the long Belmont stretch.

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@Odeen: I was not aware the point of the thread was not to be able to talk about the challenges he faces... I AM talking about him, as well. Without having seen him run long distance, I am dubious as to his chances.

 

However, as I mentioned before, Espinoza is a jockey I really admire. I think that his experience will be very helpful for his chances. Baffert is an experienced trainer with a lot of wins under his belt, too, which will help. Whether he actually did what was necessary to get Pharoah through the longer race is yet to be seen. I hope so. I might cry happy tears if we get a TC winner. I have seen better pedigrees for long distance runners, though the his grandsire does help if he inherited that. I more meant stamina as in being able to handle all three races, though.

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Early reports say that Tale of Verve, Mubtaahij, Keen Ice, and Conquest Curlinate are going to take on Pharoah in the Belmont. What do you think? He's beaten three of them in the past two races, but I don't know much about Conquest Curlinate tbh.

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I've been following Thoroughbred racing since the 1960's, when Native Diver caught my fancy and everyone else in SoCal. It was a passion of mine and I even considered becoming a vet and to specialize in equine sciences. Didn't happen, but that didn't stop my love for racing.

 

In 1973 while working at Sears, I risked getting fired on the day of the Belmont. My boss chastised me for leaving my post, but I was not going to miss an opportunity to see my first Triple Crown winner. That was the year I saw Secretariat win the Triple - with everyone else who was working that floor where the TVs were. Including my boss! LOL

 

Before the Belmont, everyone was saying that Secretariat would falter, that he had left his best effort in the Preakness. Well, we all know how that turned out. And he's AP's ggggrandsire!

 

AP won the Preakness wire to wire and in the slop. It's possible he may have peaked, then, but I noticed he was still eager to go after finishing. It takes more effort - I would think, anyway - for a horse to run in the slop, where the footing requires more traction, so the amount of energy used would be greater, yet AP looked ready to go another round. He was alert, curious, and not at all beleaguered. It will be quite interesting to see what he has left in 2.5 weeks! I suspect he will do well, especially if it rains! :-D

 

 

 

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I've been following Thoroughbred racing since the 1960's, when Native Diver caught my fancy and everyone else in SoCal. It was a passion of mine and I even considered becoming a vet and to specialize in equine sciences. Didn't happen, but that didn't stop my love for racing.

 

In 1973 while working at Sears, I risked getting fired on the day of the Belmont. My boss chastised me for leaving my post, but I was not going to miss an opportunity to see my first Triple Crown winner. That was the year I saw Secretariat win the Triple - with everyone else who was working that floor where the TVs were. Including my boss! LOL

 

Before the Belmont, everyone was saying that Secretariat would falter, that he had left his best effort in the Preakness. Well, we all know how that turned out. And he's AP's ggggrandsire!

 

AP won the Preakness wire to wire and in the slop. It's possible he may have peaked, then, but I noticed he was still eager to go after finishing. It takes more effort - I would think, anyway - for a horse to run in the slop, where the footing requires more traction, so the amount of energy used would be greater, yet AP looked ready to go another round. He was alert, curious, and not at all beleaguered. It will be quite interesting to see what he has left in 2.5 weeks! I suspect he will do well, especially if it rains! :-D

Beautiful story, great to read. smile.gif

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Conquest Curlinate doesn't look to be a huge threat to AP. AP has run against horses who bet Conquest Curlinate and won over them.

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Tale of Verve might actually be an interesting prospect as a possible upset, given his run in the Preakness. He closed very strongly after trailing a significant distance behind, and was held up in the stretch by Divining Rod veering out. He might have eaten away at a bit of AP's lead were it not for that (though after they turned for home and he grabbed the lead AP wasn't really being ridden anymore, just coasting on his own momentum).

 

I don't feel like he's bred for the distance and he's going to be coming off a rather hard-fought 2nd, but I for one am going to keep an eye on how he trains.

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American Pharaoh breezed 1/2 mile this morning at Churchill Downs with 1/8 margins of 12.2, 24, 35.8, and 48 seconds, galloping out to 3/4 of a mile in 1:13.2. He looked very playful and relaxed on the video and seems to be keeping his weight on out of the Preakness.

 

Still hoping we see a good race next weekend. I think it's AP's to lose, though a couple of the other likely contenders are also training well.

 

War Story is out of the running, pointed toward the Ohio Derby. IMHO that's a good call; he's decent, but clearly outclassed by the current potential Belmont field.

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I've been following Thoroughbred racing since the 1960's, when Native Diver caught my fancy and everyone else in SoCal. It was a passion of mine and I even considered becoming a vet and to specialize in equine sciences. Didn't happen, but that didn't stop my love for racing.

 

In 1973 while working at Sears, I risked getting fired on the day of the Belmont. My boss chastised me for leaving my post, but I was not going to miss an opportunity to see my first Triple Crown winner. That was the year I saw Secretariat win the Triple - with everyone else who was working that floor where the TVs were. Including my boss! LOL

 

Before the Belmont, everyone was saying that Secretariat would falter, that he had left his best effort in the Preakness. Well, we all know how that turned out. And he's AP's ggggrandsire!

 

AP won the Preakness wire to wire and in the slop. It's possible he may have peaked, then, but I noticed he was still eager to go after finishing. It takes more effort - I would think, anyway - for a horse to run in the slop, where the footing requires more traction, so the amount of energy used would be greater, yet AP looked ready to go another round. He was alert, curious, and not at all beleaguered. It will be quite interesting to see what he has left in 2.5 weeks! I suspect he will do well, especially if it rains! :-D

I would put a lot of stock in AP being out from animals descended from Secretariat. Secretariat had an enlarged heart which allowed him to have a stronger circulatory system, which made him a better racer. Now if you could share whether there is a chance that AP could be affected by an enlarged heart, or has a high amount of hetrozygous vigor perhaps he can do what no horse has done in years. Careful breeding has shaved times down, but you need an edge to keep going that distance and being fast enough to win.

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American Pharoah galloped out 1 1/2 miles this morning, and looked like he wanted to keep running forever. If he keeps this form leading up to the Belmont I think we'll have a really really interesting race on our hands.

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Carpe Diem and The Truth Or Else were pulled from the Belmont lineup a couple of days ago, bringing the field down to 8. I'm guessing that, barring any late scratches due to illness or injury, the contenders will be:

 

- American Pharoah

- Materiality

- Mubtaahij

- Frosted

- Frammento

- Madefromlucky

- Tale of Verve

- Keen Ice

 

----

 

The Pharoah had his

at Churchill Downs yesterday and came out smelling like roses.

 

Edited by Odeen

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Gah, three more days. I'm super excited, I don't know too much about racing in general as I've always paid more attention to showjumping and stuff, but I think Pharoah has a really good shot at the Triple Crown.

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I was a casual observer of the Triple Crown races since the early eighties; missed my chance to see the last three triple crown winners (Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed) although I could have sad.gif ; was only a child then and had other interests. Still hoping to see a Triple Crown winner and hope that American Pharoah gets the job done on Saturday. The odds are not in his favor though, as I've seen several horses win the Derby and Preakness only to fail in the Belmont.

 

I will have to DVR the race on Saturday as I'm a Eucharistic Minister at my church on Saturday.

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