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stogucheme

Spread Out Distribution

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So I've checked five pages back in search, and couldn't find this. (The Ratios thread is totally different from this idea.)

 

My suggestion is that instead of the cave making breeds based on that day/week/whatever, it calculates last month's ratios, makes the appropriate amount of eggs, and sets itself to distribute those breeds in a more balanced way over the next month. Um...example!

-Albinos: down 20%

-Water Walkers: down 16%

-Golds: down 4%

 

Eggs made in the next month:

-Albinos: 20%

-Water Walkers: 16%

-Golds: 4%

 

Distribution schedule:

-week one: 5% Albinos, 4% Water Walkers, 1% Golds

-week two: 5% Albinos, 4% Water Walkers, 1% Golds

-week three: 5% Albinos, 4% Water Walkers, 1% Golds

-week four: 5% Albinos, 4% Water Walkers, 1% Golds

 

Because right now it feels like it's dumping all the Albinos in the first week, the Water Walkers in the second, and the Golds in the third.

 

PROS:

-rares and commons more diversified

-better chance of catching what you want; less chance of missing a rush of [breed]

 

CONS:

-Each month's distribution schedule would be based on last month's ratios

 

What do y'all think?

Edited by stogucheme

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The number of dragons released to the cave is decided upon by the ratio of adult (and i beleive frozen hatchlings) across the scrolls. The only way to change how many appear in the cave is for players to raise more of those dragons.

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The number of dragons released to the cave is decided upon by the ratio of adult (and i beleive frozen hatchlings) across the scrolls. The only way to change how many appear in the cave is for players to raise more of those dragons.

You're referring to the ratios. I'm referring to the distribution. My idea has the same ratio, but distributes the eggs more evenly.

 

So if the cave needs to release 20 Albinos, it does, just not all at once.

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Each distribuation is decided at the begining of the day to my understanding, that or at the top of each hour, with some set aside for the 5 minute drops. Not something planned out weeks in advance.

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This feels impractical. I doubt TJ would sit at his computer every day and go 'time to put out the distributed ratios today! biggrin.gif'.

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In all honesty, all the dragons for the day assigned to appear in the cave are distributed fairly evenly throughout the entire day based on the numbers of each breed assigned by the ratios.

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This feels impractical. I doubt TJ would sit at his computer every day and go 'time to put out the distributed ratios today! biggrin.gif'.

I doubt he'd do it manually, he'd have a code that handled it automatically.

 

 

This idea doesn't really make sense to me, though.

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Said code already exists and is active, distributing the dragons evenly throughout the day every day based on ratios. It only does this each day, not once a week nor weeks in advance.

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Said code already exists and is active, distributing the dragons evenly throughout the day every day based on ratios. It only does this each day, not once a week nor weeks in advance.

Yes, I think that's exactly what the OP is suggesting be changed - that it be redone so that it involves longer term calculations.

 

This is certainly a unique suggestion on how to tackle things but, honestly, I'm not sure it would be worth redoing a bunch of coding. Yeah, it could possibly ease a glut of commons, however, all of the examples were based on what was down. What about things that were up?

 

If some rares or uncommons are up, under a short term system, there are almost no rares/uncommons for a few days. But under a long term system, they'd be there but in incredibly low numbers for an entire month. To me, that would be far more frustrating and discouraging.

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Yes, I think that's exactly what the OP is suggesting be changed - that it be redone so that it involves longer term calculations.

 

This is certainly a unique suggestion on how to tackle things but, honestly, I'm not sure it would be worth redoing a bunch of coding. Yeah, it could possibly ease a glut of commons, however, all of the examples were based on what was down. What about things that were up?

 

If some rares or uncommons are up, under a short term system, there are almost no rares/uncommons for a few days. But under a long term system, they'd be there but in incredibly low numbers for an entire month. To me, that would be far more frustrating and discouraging.

1. Thank you for explaining it.

2. This would take into the whole month's ratios- it would by default be more balanced than a day to day count.

3. The main reason I suggest this system is because I couldn't find any CB metals even on trade threads for weeks, and found that it's because all seven ended up as eggs on one person's scroll. I mean, congrats to that person, but I just don't think it's right to drop pretty much the entire month's allotment in one sitting, thereby creating short "gold rushes" that you have to be extremely lucky to be there for.

(Please keep in mind this is not complaining and I know full well that said person could've gotten all of them anyway. I do think that my suggested system would allow for a bit more fairness, though.)

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I honestly perfer the daily settings of what appears in the cave than monthly or weekly for one major reason. The number of blockers that ppl havn't been picking up on a daily basis, those would be the only things the ratios will say needs dropping when it comes time to calculate what drops!

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I assumed he would do it manually and thought the codes distributed were just recycled automatically, because that's what it seems like.

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I honestly perfer the daily settings of what appears in the cave than monthly or weekly for one major reason. The number of blockers that ppl havn't been picking up on a daily basis, those would be the only things the ratios will say needs dropping when it comes time to calculate what drops!

How can that be true? This system is by default more balanced; it takes the entire month into consideration, thereby taking a larger sample of the ratios. Instead of taking in the day's ratio of Albinos being down, it takes the month's of Albinos AND Whiptails being down, and distributes them more evenly. With a planned system, things like AP floods wouldn't have so great an impact on the ratios.

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AP floods have been going on since the time the Guardian was released, which was YEARS ago. The only way to stop it really is to RETIRE the OLD breeds to the point they are not breeding anymore because people more or less already have all they want of those breeds, wanting more of the newer breeds. Because of the drive for the newer breeds, ppl ignore the old ones, causing said breeds to become blockers in the cave and by breeding said commons to other dragons it ends up producing more of those commons that end up just being sent to the AP.

 

Day to day ratio balancing is more refined than monthly where things can get even more out of balance during the longer time period.

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AP floods have been going on since the time the Guardian was released, which was YEARS ago. The only way to stop it really is to RETIRE the OLD breeds to the point they are not breeding anymore because people more or less already have all they want of those breeds, wanting more of the newer breeds. Because of the drive for the newer breeds, ppl ignore the old ones, causing said breeds to become blockers in the cave and by breeding said commons to other dragons it ends up producing more of those commons that end up just being sent to the AP.

 

Day to day ratio balancing is more refined than monthly where things can get even more out of balance during the longer time period.

Poor pinks. But tbh, Dolph is right. Floods will never stop, because the game is set up in a non-breaking way. If TJ changes it to -monthly-, things could get out of hand extremely easily.

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How can that be true? This system is by default more balanced; it takes the entire month into consideration, thereby taking a larger sample of the ratios. Instead of taking in the day's ratio of Albinos being down, it takes the month's of Albinos AND Whiptails being down, and distributes them more evenly. With a planned system, things like AP floods wouldn't have so great an impact on the ratios.

What you're proposing is by definition a less-adaptive system, not a more-adaptive one. By only checking the ratios at the beginning of the month to assign ratios for the next month, the "signal" of small variations in ratio that a daily adjustment system would account for are totally missed in the "noise" of everything else going on.

 

This will also bias breeding in making up the ratio for rare breeds, and whatever the previous month's ratio was for making up the ratio for commons.

 

Lemme try to give an example:

 

At the beginning of month 1, the system checks and plans a 20%:20%:4% absolute distribution for Whiptails, Albinos, and Golds in the cave. Let's pretend DC is really small and there's exactly 1000 Whiptails, 1000 Albinos, and 100 golds in existence.

 

During month 1, 200 Whiptails drop in the cave, 200 Albinos drop in the cave, and 4 golds drop in the cave. Also during that month, 50 Whiptails are bred, 20 albinos are bred, and let's say there's a lot of people trying with their golds so they succeed in breeding 16 golds.

 

At the beginning of month 2, the system checks and sees that there are now 1250 Whiptails, 1220 Albinos, and 120 golds in existence. Golds have gone up a whopping 20%--that's almost as much as the common breeds! Whiptails have gone up 25%, and albinos have gone up 22%--but that's only 5% and 2% more, respectively, than the "planned" increase of 20% each (200). So for month 2, because of the changes that have occurred in the last month, it switches the ratios so that it's 15%:18%:1%.

 

During month 2, 188 Whiptails, 220 Albinos, and a whopping *1* gold are planned to drop in the cave. Let's pretend the same situation occurred as in the previous month--50 whiptails, 20 albinos, and 16 golds are bred.

 

At the beginning of month 3, the system checks: 1488 whiptails, 1460 albinos, and 137 golds are in existence. That's an increase of 19%, 19.6%, and 14.2%, respectively. So...

 

I could go on with this, but what will basically happen is the common breeds will fluctuate around whatever set point the system gives them on a monthly basis, while if there's a significant breeding success (due to luck) for the rare breeds, they'll pretty much vanish from existence. This is versus a daily scheme, where unless there's breeding equal to 20% of the total gold population in one day, the ratios won't fall that far out of whack.

 

A daily system is more adaptive and less prone to getting locked into errors by temporary fluctuations.

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But that's assuming that the ratios for breeding and cave dropping aren't connected. If they are connected, what you proposed won't happen.

Also, I'd be cool if the distribution was set on a weekly basis as a compromise.

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But that's assuming that the ratios for breeding and cave dropping aren't connected. If they are connected, what you proposed won't happen.

Also, I'd be cool if the distribution was set on a weekly basis as a compromise.

Except even if they are connected, unless TJ rewrites the code for breeding to say "once x golds have been bred this month, drop the ratio to 0 and never produce another gold", it's a viable possibility. Even with, say, a 0.1% chance of a breeding producing a gold, you'll still have people getting lucky--and the more breedings you have, the higher the number of golds produced will be. Sure, if only 100 gold pairs are bred every month, you're very unlikely to see even one produce with a 0.1% success rate.

 

When you bring that up to 1000, 2000, etc.--and remember the fact that you can attempt a breeding once every seven days, so as often as five times a month if you time it right--suddenly you'll start seeing a bunch more golds pop up. If you can't dynamically control the ratio in the same time window that you allow breeding, then the ratio plummets as more and more people are successful at breeding versus catching.

 

Again, you're arguing to make a less-adaptive system out of a more-adaptive one.

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It is my understanding the ratio calculator counts EXISTING adults and frozens across all scrolls. This means breeding is included in its calculations. Remember. For a long period of time, due to the glitch where Holiday/Rare = Rare offspring, the sucess rate of breeding metalics were nonexistant for YEARS until the ratios rebalanced out.

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It is my understanding the ratio calculator counts EXISTING adults and frozens across all scrolls.

Will just add that dragons count for one year (excluding dragons in the wilderness). That's about all I know about ratios since TJ posted that in some thread a while back. x3

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