Breeding mostly unsuccessful

[LadyLyzar]

My guess is that the ratios are correcting themselves. Remember, with the recent release of black stripes, people were breeding blacks like mad, and those that were not stripes were tossed to the AP. The AP was flooded with black eggs, and blacks were all over the fansites.

 

For the most part, the other pairings that produce a black stripe are either not producing as well. Plus there are some that cannot currently produce a non-stripe egg (black marrows, alt sweetlings, etc.) so those would not be affected.

 

I don't know if all colors of stripes are lumped together or not in the ratios, but it's possible.

 

Also, with alt nebulas being released, nebulas were also bred like mad. Hence I think the system is correcting itself.

 

Recently, metals were also producing very well recently - so everyone bred their metals. So it's possible things are also adjusting to that, as well.

 

I really don't think TJ has manually changed anything - if he has, I sure haven't heard about it.

 

It should even out with time.

[AzureZeroX]

I got a bluna, nebula, Hellfire and Ember. After like 30 tries total...

And yes, for me at least Nebs are taking a dive, I haven't gotten a trio member in a while either.

However as Lady Lyzar said, it is likely the system correcting itself.

Edited April 19, 2011 by DarkdragoonXHybrid

[tehjohnli]

Because of these ratios correcting themselves, is there a slightly increased chance of obtaining a CB rare? I checked the NDER, and I saw one gold on the site-- a CB one, too.

 

And I've tried to breed all my metals twice. and i've gotten zero.

I've also not bred any prizes recently at all.

But I did breed a nice little 2nd gen thunder. But that's just about it.

[Vhale]

Probably not if everyone squats at the cave due to rumors of CB rares.

[RheaZen]

tehjohnli - Hard to say, but as I've seen several CB metals up for trades, I'm keeping my hopes high/

[siliconrose]

I did snag a CB black off the cave yesterday evening. ^^

[Kesson]

My guess is that the ratios are correcting themselves. Remember, with the recent release of black stripes, people were breeding blacks like mad, and those that were not stripes were tossed to the AP. The AP was flooded with black eggs, and blacks were all over the fansites.

 

For the most part, the other pairings that produce a black stripe are either not producing as well. Plus there are some that cannot currently produce a non-stripe egg (black marrows, alt sweetlings, etc.) so those would not be affected.

 

I don't know if all colors of stripes are lumped together or not in the ratios, but it's possible.

 

Also, with alt nebulas being released, nebulas were also bred like mad. Hence I think the system is correcting itself.

 

Recently, metals were also producing very well recently - so everyone bred their metals. So it's possible things are also adjusting to that, as well.

 

I really don't think TJ has manually changed anything - if he has, I sure haven't heard about it.

 

It should even out with time.

I agree with this. I feel like the cave is just a bit thrown off in general by all of the new releases being obtainable from breedings of current dragons. When there is a new release that can only be caught in the cave, we don't see mass breedings of any specific breed and so no massively thrown off ratios.

[Nectaris]

I agree with this. I feel like the cave is just a bit thrown off in general by all of the new releases being obtainable from breedings of current dragons. When there is a new release that can only be caught in the cave, we don't see mass breedings of any specific breed and so no massively thrown off ratios.

The problem is though is that a few pages ago, TJ came in and said there are as many black eggs on the site as pillow eggs. Yet where are these eggs? Look at any fansite and there are few black eggs, while there are many pillows. Someone came in and said that on silvi's, there are only twelve black eggs on the site, while there are 600+ pillows. This makes me think it is not just the ratios, that there is something genuinely wrong with the site. I don't think TJ is doing anything, I think it is just a glitch that has not been fixed.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Nectaris

[Karobb]

Okay big news lol, I did manage to breed 4 commons from metals today after no success all week, so perhaps things are looking up!

 

Lets hope

[Saartje]

about 210 metal breedings since the drought started, result: 0 blacks/stripes/metals. Still.

 

 

It isnt logic

[elynne]

Have people noticed breeding being more successful lately? Getting decent CB drops is nigh impossible, now that everybody's camping it.

[tridymite]

Good morning...

 

I Added the 35 blacks from yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

[elynne]

I just now successfully bred a black egg. Maybe the ratios are resetting?

[GForce]

My guess is that the ratios are correcting themselves.  Remember, with the recent release of black stripes, people were breeding blacks like mad, and those that were not stripes were tossed to the AP.  The AP was flooded with black eggs, and blacks were all over the fansites.

 

I really don't think TJ has manually changed anything - if he has, I sure haven't heard about it.

 

It should even out with time.

But if nothing has changed manually then how did the AP unclog itself straight after the maintenance / downtime around the... gosh what was the date, more or less the 10th of April I think? Surely something was done!

 

I personally am very happy about the wonderful Cave drops, except that now with less breedings, there are less people stalking the AP and more in the Cave - like I asked in the topic, is this the trade-off.

 

It might slowly be resolving itself, but the keyword is (Very) slowly, most people are still not able to breed as they would normally (if at all) even if one takes everything into consideration (which includes the Nebula ALts and new releases)

 

 

[Oddsoxdi]

So MY question is - if there ARE as many Black eggs as Pillows - WHERE are they? And are SunSongs and HellFires considered rares? I've not been able to get an egg from very reliable pairs for a long time either. I can at least understand the dearth of Stripes due to the breeding frenzy that went on to get Black Stripes, but c'monnnnn SunSongs and HellFires too????

 

It has taken too long to get all the numbers worked out and it's just not much fun on the breeding grounds. And since you hardly ever see Metallics or Blacks in the Cave, let alone have a chance at them since every user in the world is IN the Cave, that's not a lotta fun either.

[quadibloc]

It could be that the black Stripes and Nebula alts made this new release different from others - but it's also possible that this was an effect of the Earthquake penalty, since killed eggs are thrown back in to the ratios - and so what some people had been doing to clear the AP balanced things out. (Or, alternately, this use of Earthquake had become more widely known, and its large-scale use before it was stopped suddenly caused the wider-than-normal swings this time.)

[olympe]

We already have this topic:

http://forums.dragcave.net/index.php?showtopic=114736

 

Tj has made these replies:

(TJ09 @ Apr 9 2011, 10:19 PM)

There are currently several hundred gold eggs and several thousand bred black and striped eggs.

 

Now, those include eggs bred before this topic was posted, but there hasn't been a sudden drop in those numbers, as would be expected if eggs were hatching but none/significantly fewer were being bred to replace them.

 

(TJ09 @ Apr 9 2011, 10:27 PM)

It means eggs are still being bred, even if they don't happen to be the ones owned by people posting here.

 

I mean, this sort of topic pops up periodically, which is why I may not come across as particularly concerned.

Well, have a look at Silvi's Lair right now. Both metallics there are in the single digits (under 10), whereas they both used to be over 200 a few weeks ago. Which means what, exactly? Most likely that these eggs are not being bred right now. (Reminds me of the missing metallics from the time when I joined - that was after the ratios were askew and were still in the process of going back to normal.)

 

Compared to other breeds: Metallics (on Silvi's Lair) are about as rare as tinsels, GoNs and alt vines. They are about three times as common as neglected dragons. I don't know if I'm missing something here, but to me, this seems way off. Also, both black dragons and dorsals are missing from the top 15 breeds right now, which is highly unusual - especially for the blacks, which are an all-time favorite of many players.

Edited April 20, 2011 by olympe

[Syphoneira]

I've just done my daily fail-breeding of a few metallic pairs and was expecting no egg for Silver and Stripe, but Gold and a lovely-lineaged !Deep Sea! produced nothing either...

 

Could this be something where any metallic involved is enough to prevent the production of any egg?

 

That would be an obvious advantage where messy lineages of the type which clog the AP were involved, although admittedly rather sad where 2nd gens and nice lineages are.

[zengardens1996]

I just bred several pairs of metals and blacks. None of them had given me an egg. Something definitely seems wrong...

 

[elynne]

It seems like dragons can actually be broken into at least three categories: rares, commons, and uncommons. Terrae, Frill, Sunsong, and Hellfire are not "rare" as such--but they aren't popping up in the cave as much as Mint, Guardian, Balloon, or Albinos. They also get snapped up quickly from the AP.

 

I'm getting frustrated again. It's nearly impossible to see, let alone grab, even an uncommon egg from the cave. I squeaked with delight when I read about the biomes; even if there's, say, four different caves mostly producing commons, it will split up the cave-camping into four groups, thus giving everybody a better chance of grabbing uncommons when they show up. I was also thrilled to hear about the magi "teleport" BSA; I have an army of silvers, and I'd love to get into trying to breed them on a regular basis if I could be assured a safe way of trading them for other eggs that I want.

 

But this... yay, the cave is unblocked. But I don't have much chance of catching any eggs I want, or of breeding the uncommons I have. Maybe it's time for me to go back into hibernation for another couple of months, until some of the features I've been looking forward to get implemented.

[ksew]

today I got:

 

6 successfull breedings (one Thunder among them)

2 not enough interests

7 no eggs produced

 

I bred mostly commons, there were only two trios among them and one gave me a Thunder

[Syphoneira]

It seems like dragons can actually be broken into at least three categories: rares, commons, and uncommons. Terrae, Frill, Sunsong, and Hellfire are not "rare" as such--but they aren't popping up in the cave as much as Mint, Guardian, Balloon, or Albinos. They also get snapped up quickly from the AP.

 

I'm getting frustrated again. It's nearly impossible to see, let alone grab, even an uncommon egg from the cave. I squeaked with delight when I read about the biomes; even if there's, say, four different caves mostly producing commons, it will split up the cave-camping into four groups, thus giving everybody a better chance of grabbing uncommons when they show up. I was also thrilled to hear about the magi "teleport" BSA; I have an army of silvers, and I'd love to get into trying to breed them on a regular basis if I could be assured a safe way of trading them for other eggs that I want.

 

But this... yay, the cave is unblocked. But I don't have much chance of catching any eggs I want, or of breeding the uncommons I have. Maybe it's time for me to go back into hibernation for another couple of months, until some of the features I've been looking forward to get implemented.

 

 

Just to mention, there has, as far as I know, virtually always been a division of dragon types into common, uncommon and rare as to frequency of appearance.

 

But as far as catch-able Cave and/or bred Frills go, they're actually gone, having been retired (sniffle) some time ago.

 

I'm guessing you've had a lengthy hiatus lately, so thought I'd best mention to prevent your getting your hopes up and then dashed at some later point after much Cave-stalking to find this out later.

 

Sorry...

[moxiegraphix]

I'm not trying to be contrary but...

 

How many total active scrolls are there on Dragon Cave? Look at Silvi's. There are a little over 3,000 scrolls. Depending on how many active scrolls there are on DC, that's only a portion which may only be a VERY small portion and can not honestly be indicative of the overall state of the cave. You can't use the numbers on that site to point at something being wrong since it's only a portion of the active scrolls. UNLESS, the active scrolls only number something like 4,000, which probably isn't the case.

 

It's just like on some gaming forums were people think 'everybody' feels the same way they feel because a very vocal minority are posting. It isn't an indication of feelings overall but since the other unnumbered people don't speak up, it seems like a huge problem.

[siliconrose]

People are assuming that the Silvi's data is a representative sample of the population of Dragon Cave -- that it is a (more or less) randomly selected group of people, and thus that trends that display in Silvi's indicate trends that apply across the entire population.

 

This is how statistics work.

 

It's possible that Silvi's is not a representative sample, but if it isn't, I'd be fascinated to know why.

[moxiegraphix]

People are assuming that the Silvi's data is a representative sample of the population of Dragon Cave -- that it is a (more or less) randomly selected group of people, and thus that trends that display in Silvi's indicate trends that apply across the entire population.

 

This is how statistics work.

 

It's possible that Silvi's is not a representative sample, but if it isn't, I'd be fascinated to know why.

My point is, depending on how many active scrolls there actually are on DC, it can only be considered a small portion and can not be indicative of the overall success across all the scrolls. Again, on Silvi's, we're looking at a little over 3.000 scrolls.

 

The only person who can really tell us us TJ and, I'm sure he's getting tired of being called either a liar (even if not directly), accused of having changed things when he says he hasn't, having his own numbers questioned (when you know he has access to information nobody on this site has access to), or any of the other things being said in this thread by now. I know I would be.